My baseline assumption is this is nothing to do with any major powers, not Russia, not Iran, but mostly about internal Hamas dynamics.
However if Israel decides to link these thousands of rockets to Iran, this could have major power implications, leading to a general war in the region.
Interesting theory from German analyst Ulrich Speck, that this could be Hamas feeling threatened by the Gulf countries normalising with Israel and feeling it has to do something extreme to stop itself getting slowly squeezed by that.
So forcing Saudi Arabia - the 'defender of the holy places' - to take sides in a conflict Hamas frames as all about Al Aqsa makes total sense.
This would also fit with a clearly strategic attack by Hamas using all its assets.
And would also fit with how the dimension of the conflict we rarely see is precisely this slow undramatic squeeze that Palestinians experience every day. It doesn't make the news, but it defines an unbearable reality for millions.
@b870d4c8 I was asking the same thing here. And forcing other Arabic countries to engage might be the answer. I don't have any doubt that the retaliation will be horrible and will hurt other countries like Lebanon and Jordan - more than half of the population in Jordan is Palestine & the country keeps the neutrality in the conflict. Lebanon has Hezbollah and Iranian support, but the population is too traumatized by the last conflicts. The popular pressure to engage will come first from Jordan.
@b3985c34 yes, so far the idea of forcing Arab and Muslim countries to choose sides seems like the most plausible explanation.
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