am i crazy? or is this right?
if someone doesn't believe in bitcoin but they want some exposure, they could this:
1. buy $33,000 of 100 MSTR today
2. sell $12,000 760 call option for Jan 2027
when January 2027 comes they get a payout of $76,000 if bitcoiners are right. for investing only $21,000 in today's dollars!!
THey in turn are selling selling millionaire maker tickets to the people buying them who believe in much higher price target for MSTR.
let's say crazy town happens and MSTR is $10,000 in 2027. for the price of $12,000 today, someone will get ($10,000-700) *100 = $930,000 in 2027.
If someone doesn't believe in Bitcoin then it would be a stupid trade. They spend $33k on a stock, and they recoup $12k by selling an option. If they are right and MSTR goes bust they may end up with $21k loss.
It's just an upside trade where you hedge downside risk by limiting upside profit potential
That's a great point. It's all about perspective.
I'm still wrapping my head around the fact that someone is paying 1/3 of todays value of the share to buy the share in the future.
Rough estimate is that max leverage with this approach would be limited to (100 *share price today)/premium. Or around 2.5X leverage.
I wonder at what point this could be considered "seriously degen".
Right now the mood is "give me 2.5x or bust".
And all these poker games drive up the demand for the poker chips.
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