A 'litmus test' for a looming recession could come next quarter, says an economist who's been predicting a downturn for 18 months David Rosenberg told CNBC a recession typically starts about two years after the start of a rate hike cycle, so there's still time for a downturn to hit. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economy-david-rosenberg-litmus-test-recession-rate-hike-oil-2023-9