Tx fees going up forever is a big blockers argument, and considered inevitable by many with a shitcoin mindset, because the fees (and other proposed ways to reward miners) have to offset declining block rewards. But, has permanent rising fees played out as block size went from 50 to 6.25? No, it has not, you can still get low fees, although it has been harder lately due to unsustainable shenanigans the latest of which being ordinal graffiti. And the reason fees won't inevitably rise is because the value of bitcoin rises.
I mean, you could be right. Your argument of increased price makes sense. I still can see a future where 500sat/vB is permanent. If 50% of the world will want to use Bitcoin, block space will just be too scarce for prices to stay as low as they are. People will have to open and close channels to LN all the time. But we’ll see
100% of the world will use bitcoin and it could cost hundreds of dollars equivalent to move a utxo on the base layer, like take it to the extreme where one sat is worth one of today's dollars. Practically speaking only whales (owning >= 1 whole coin) and layer 3's like fedi's move coin on the base layer to service their lightning nodes.
There you go. You just said it yourself: 500k sats will be dust.
I don’t believe that only whole coiner will be able to transact on-chain. I think 1m sats will always be economically viable.
?? In that hypothetical, 500k sats would be the equivalent of half a million today's dollars
You said only whole coiner and L3s will be able to make on-chain txs. That implies that 500k sats are dust.
“Transaction fees going up forever” is different than “fees will be higher in the future permanently”.
The former is false, the later is likely true.
500k sats is unlikely to be operative dust, but it could cost a very high percentage of itself in fees to be moved.
You can read the article where that chart came from, and the math behind it, here:
https://unchained.com/blog/small-utxo-bitcoin-dust/
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