Oddbean

As the fees go up, ppl realize that bitcoin base layer is only for wire-transfer-like economical transactions. Plebs will be priced out. The bitcoin hardware wallet business is still going to grow for a few years, then only going to shrink It will be a nice high security niche Security is the # 1 feature, not losing your coins is the most important thing, grandma UX focus is high time preference distraction, global south base layer will be silly. There is also a huge opportunity for bitcoin backed eCash affordable hardware as these are bearer tokens. Stop designing for today.

I was thinking about this yesterday The average person isn’t going to need cold storage. Simply because they won’t have enough bitcoin to justify going through the process I do agree that it will be around for a little while longer but definitely not forever I thought of it like the people who currently store gold in their safe. That’s the approximate amount and the type of people who will be using their own cold storage devices in the future Thanks for sharing this

Interesting point. Could prove a pivotal moment for applying intelligent automation to data points like mempool fees, much like a financial provider, explaining to grandma, that now is the most economical time to refill your checking account with sats. Or perhaps enough automation is built into layer 2 that services compete with extremely low fees, by democratizing the cost of lightning nodes. We can't even concieve of industrialization opportunities around both layers 10 years from now. It's a hockey stick.

Will fedimints be the best practical option for plebs in the west to hold freedom money throughout the the near future, if the fee pressure continues to rise or is maintained in the few hundred Sats/vB range? I think a lot of people are struggling with the reality that their Bitcoin investment was based on an initial understanding, but they are now seeing its trajectory with a different perspective. This might explain why there is such a strong negative feeling toward the Fedimint and eCash topics.

why would hardware wallet markets shrink? I would say as fees go up and value in holdings go up, all the more reason you would move to hardware wall for signing. use as a savings account for larger moves.

no, I'm thinking in sat terms. higher fees equals more sats taken on each tx.... I don't want 2k sats taken in fees on a 10k sat TX. on a 1M sat TX, 2, 10, even 20k sats taken in fees deem reasonable.

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I agree. The answer is in the history of ALL monetary systems, as #Bitcoin is , among other attributes, a monetary system. In ALL monetary systems from Egyptians, to Hammurabi (1700 bc) until today, good money (for centuries Gold, now also Btc) has always been hoarded and used as the best possible collateral for any other form of money, in light of its TOO HIGH VALUE for average people. Roman citizens , Athenians, Middle age populations used silver, bronze and copper, the roman emperors used gold to transfer money to and from the governors of the provinces, chinese held gold in emperor's vault and issued paper money against that gold for all daily uses . There is hence a very high probability that even in this case things will go that way. Difference today, IMO, is that while gold could not be split into micro coins for daily teansactions for tons of reasons, mostly technical reasons, Bitcoin on the contrary has this feature, 100M sats and all coming tech (LN, ecash, ....).

It seems both Hayek and finney both believed bitcoin banks would be a natural progression of utxo ownership(although Hayek didn't know about bitcoin he described decentralized base money perfectly). They believed we would return to an open banking era where many different banks competed for customers. I think it will be these banks, companies who want to operate as their own bank, and high net-worth individuals that will use their own hardware wallets. The future of lighting will probably be B2B transactions between these companies with occasional closing of channels to settle possible disputes on chain. Each of these companies/banks will most likely operate their own ecash mint, denominated in sats of course. Ecash is a private bearer instrument that will be issued by these banks and people will have the freedom to choose which mint they trust and transact sat denominated notes P2P without surveillance. There will still be many self sovereign individuals who exist outside of this framework, but I think this will encapsulate the majority.

this is why jade hardware wallet is superior to every hardware wallet on the market, hands down. nostr:nevent1qqsd09xer8q0rwyeveklwss0kncnjm2lzf3uarw83032jc6dzuf5msspr3mhxue69uhkummnw3ezucnfw33k76twv4ezuum0vd5kzmqzyr5g56g7nrveslykg5salasqyhmqwqph3fy8jxqdewa555p8s5zpzqcyqqqqqqggq26tq

I agree. I’m no expert but I see a future where people get started on lightning, liquid, fedi, eCash, etc. they start getting paid, paying others, etc. then, once they've built a sizable amount of saving, they'll make the move to protect those savings on the base layer. In fiat, people can't save, so there's nothing left to protect. with bitcoin, everybody will, and the base layer will always be there for when they are ready to own their UTXOs. Bitcoin is always there for us.

they all have to settle on the main chain eventually In a high money velocity digital world this will be, I dunno, a day or so? that's the difference with today when the fraud can carry on for decades and plus just because you have Bitcoin doesn't mean you can screw with the base layer immutability