Oddbean

Nice 101 on the bumbling Jared Bernstein video, by Nik Stankovic on X: --- Lots of people chuckling but nobody suggesting an answer, at least in language that normies can understand. US government doesn't really print money, because printing money is irresponsible. If US government just printed money, it would go straight to inflation, and not 5% but more like 50% or even 500% or even 5000% per year. They wouldn't be able to do it for a very long time. So what does US government do? It sells bonds (debt). It borrows money. That debt is bought by other countries or by Americans who have extra money. Why do they buy US government debt? Because it is safe and gives interest. It's like putting the money in a a bank or CD only better. Mainly because it is safe. Who would you rather lend money to, US or Serbia? Take China: China gets a lot of dollars from the US for its exports to the US. Some of it is used to buy American products, but, as we know, China exports more to the US than it imports. So it has extra dollars. What is it going to do with those dollars? It buys US debt, because it gets some interest on it then. Otherwise it would just sit in the bank doing nothing. So far so good. But what happens if there are not enough buyers for US government debt AS HAS BEEN HAPPENING REGULARLY SINCE 2008. Does the US government say "oh shucks, I guess we'll just have to spend less?" Of course not. Enter the Federal Reserve, or the US Central Bank. They just buy up whatever debt nobody else wants. Where does the Federal Reserve gets the money to buy that debt? They don't. They print it. You see, it is not the US government that prints money, it is the Federal Reserve that prints money. And they are not part of the US government. Who are they? They are a private bank. What? Yes. Wait. That doesn't make any sense. Well, that's why this guy is confused. So what if the Federal Reserve goes bankrupt? Why would they go bankrupt? They can just print money forever. So this is all one giant scam? Yeah, the biggest scam of all scams. So why do people participate in this scam? Like China? Well, China kind of does the same thing. For one, two China benefits from it. Americans buy lots of stuff from China, that's jobs. But what does China do with the dollars they are just pieces of paper? It goes and buys a gold mine in Serbia with the dollars. Why would Serbia give China a GOLD MINE in exchange for some dollars? Because Serbia can use dollars to buy oil from Saudi Arabia. So what does Saudi Arabia do with the dollars?! It buys US debt, silly. It's a Ponzi Scheme! Ok, lots of people will tell you this story, but they will forget to mention one important thing: there are several billion humans going to work every day working for 8 hours or so. Working. Creating value (products and services). And so total value of everything in the world is increasing every day. There are new buildings and roads and chairs and cars and noodles and milk and YouTube videos and mobile phones and computers and people are able to get back to work because someone has cured them from a disease. This is why it's not really a Ponzi Scheme. Money is circulating and new money is constantly being added, but real value and assets are also constantly being added. There is real input to the scheme, human labor. Just think, there is more STUFF in the world today than 100 years ago. That's why there are also more dollars in the world. So what is the problem then? The problem is that the world economy, specifically the US economy, is borrowing more than it is going to able to pay back and that it is producing. If you want to borrow money, you have to prove you can pay it back. Some people can borrow more, some less. Elon Musk can borrow more money than me. US can borrow more money than Serbia. But can Elon Musk borrow 10 trillion dollars? No, not even Elon Musk can borrow that much money because he will never make that much money in his entire life, but he can borrow maybe 30 billion dollars. US is borrowing more than it will be able to pay back and even more than there is extra dollars out there to buy what it demands (that's why Federal Reserve has to "buy" it: print money). The problem is that printing money (by US government via the Federal Reserve) leads to inflation. High inflation = high interest rates. High interest rates depress economy => producing less => fewer taxes collected => more money printed => higher inflation. It's a downward spiral. Is US government then at least SPENDING less? Oh no, they are increasing spending. The worse it gets, the more money US is spending. How does this end? It ends in hyperinflation and collapse of the dollar. Nobody will want to buy US debt anymore because US is irresponsible. The trust will be lost. Hell, better to buy Serbia's debt than US debt at that point, or even better China's or Russia's. So why doesn't the US just stop spending so much? Like all these wars at least. Why doesn't a drug addict just stop taking drugs, don't they see they are destroying their health and will probably one day die of it? It's an addiction. And feeling of entitlement. When you are rich and on top of the world for so long, you cannot just one day say, oh well, I guess I have to tighten my belt a bit and live more modestly. Who me? Elon Musk? Now have to give up my private plane and fly commercial, economy class? --- nostr:nevent1qqs2rrhaf7v6fuj7aa8pkwl78fefjj67uk0zhvxtkqdpxf2vvq7t9dgpzemhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuurjd9kkzmpwdejhgq3qhklphk7fkfdgmzwclkhshcdqmnvr0wkfdy04j7yjjqa9lhvxuflsxpqqqqqqzf6kjq2