Oddbean

Three of Team USA's 12 members have been benched for the FIBA Basketball World because of “illness,” weeks after multiple US Open players struggled because of a “mysterious illness.” Meanwhile, reports of a “yo-yo flu”--an illness people can't beat that keeps coming back--are being reports around the globe. These are signs of chronic infections and damaged immune systems, both of which are hallmarks of COVID infections. https://www.smh.com.au/national/we-ve-been-constantly-sick-why-we-can-t-kick-the-yo-yo-flu-20230907-p5e2v0.html

Another sign that we are doing damage to large shares of the population would also be that disabilities rise to record levels--just like they are today. The level of disabilities had stayed roughly level from 2015 to 2020, but since July 2020 (after the first surge of COVID), we've seen a considerable rise. Today, the number of disabled Americans is 10% higher than at any point before 2020. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=QaRH

Another sign COVID is doing long-term damage to many would be that the rates of people currently experiencing Long COVID symptoms would stop declining, even in periods with low COVID infection rates. In fact, from December 2022 to today, we've seen no decline in the percentage of Americans experiencing Long COVID symptoms: 5.8% reported Long COVID symptoms in December 2022, and the same percentage did in July and August 2023. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/covid19/pulse/long-covid.htm

We might see our friends get sicker, but we'd also see famous people get ill as well. Bruce Springsteen, who's had COVID multiple times, has canceled tour dates due to peptic ulcers. Multiple studies have found a strong correlation between COVID infection and long-term gastrointestinal disorders, including--you guessed it--peptic ulcers. https://www.everydayhealth.com/coronavirus/covid-19-increases-likelihood-of-heartburn-bloating-in-the-next-year/

We recently lost Jimmy Buffett to cancer, and a growing number of studies suggest COVID suppresses our bodies' cancer-fighting abilities. (We won't know with certainty that COVID is oncogenic for years, and that will happen only if and when many more people are diagnosed with cancer.) https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0300908423001360

To be clear, both of these gentlemen may have suffered the same with or without COVID, but that's the danger of what we're doing today. We see people with illness and think that's normal while ignoring the sudden and tremendous change that occurred in 2020 to lifespans, rates of diabetes and heart disease, and other serious illnesses. https://www.cedars-sinai.org/newsroom/today-young-people-are-more-likely-to-die-of-heart-attacks-post-covid-study-finds-but-why/

We could suppress the rapid mutation of COVID and waves of infections by doing 1 of 3 easy things: Demand stronger regulations for safe and monitored air in public spaces; wearing masks in crowds; and/or reducing time in crowds, particularly during periods of rising infections (like today!) At the VERY least, we should see continued masking in hospitals where we KNOW COVID infections tend to thrive and cause considerable adverse impact to already vulnerable patients. https://www.cancertherapyadvisor.com/home/cancer-topics/general-oncology/mask-mandates-have-kept-one-cancer-center-free-from-covid-19-others-have-lifted-masking-requirements-despite-patient-concerns/

We've had almost four years to learn the risks and demand more of political and corporate leaders to protect the health and wellbeing of people. Instead, after the briefest period of unevenly embracing non-pharmaceutical interventions, we decided that acting normal was more important than having normal health and lifespans.

Some will read this and think I'm being alarmist. You may be right, but a growing number of scientific studies tell me I'm not. (And, as far as I've seen, literally no studies suggest repeated COVID infections are benign.) So, we can ignore the hundreds of studies that tell us to be more cautious--that's up to you--but we can't ignore the implications of our actions in the future. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/12VbMkvqUF9eSggJsdsFEjKs5x0ABxQJi5tvfzJIDd3U/edit#gid=2023681543