Oddbean new post about login | logout Since the prior two recessions in the US were so big and unusual (2008 and 2020), a lot of people have become accustomed to thinking that something massive for the economy is always around the corner. Now, since the fiat system does trend toward being less and less stable over time, there’s a very real possibility that we will keep getting larger crises. But sometimes there can be periods of just stagnation. Not everything is explosive, economically speaking. And public sector debt bubbles tend to unfold very differently than private debt bubbles.
It will play out with faster inflation. Because it is the only way
I’ll take your word for it, you get paid to think about this stuff
Sounds like you're getting ready to use the word "stagflation"
The price recovery of these events gets faster and faster… 2008 GFC took roughly 5 years to breakout new highs, 2020 was closer to five months for fresh new highs. This recent dip probably 5 weeks?
What is the current bubble? I think it was the zirp-induced real estate bubble, where people locked into low interest rate mortgages saw their property values skyrocket as covid refugees fled New York and California. Now with higher interest rates, homeowners cannot afford to sell their homes or move elsewhere, so we see stagnation due to paralysis, as inventory remains near zero while demand cannot be satisfied.
"Nothing ever happens"
It would be nice for bitcoin to moon without an apocalypse