Oddbean

So for only the second time on NOSTR I got in to the closest thing to a twitter flame war yesterday. It was concerning EVs of which I am knowledgeable in the same way we all understand Bitcoin. The petrol head gave the same type of very uninformed knee jerk responses to EVs that normies give about Bitcoin and I gave detailed explanations as to why they were misinformed and the statements they were making were untrue. After a few parrys, the petrol head started degenerating to personal insults. Surprisingly, I didn’t have any issue with this, in fact I felt bad for them, soI took their insults and doubled down on myself to try to make them feel better. Of course this was unthinkable for them and so the exchange ended abruptly. I felt the same degree of self sovereignty over this subject as I do over Bitcoin, however, after reflecting on the situation, despite convincingly winning every argument, I had not convinced my sparring partner of anything, they fell into the abyss of self loathing and doubt and emotion prevented them from developing their knowledge or understanding. I now realise the parallels with Bitcoin, we come across as evangelists and extremely smug ones at that, showing our fiat friends how little they have thought or considered the arguments they are proposing. This has the same affect, they don’t see the complexity or depth of what we are explaining, but instead get drawn into their own insecurities and self loathing. So I was wondering, how we adapt our rhetoric to prevent this path. Is that even possible or does the adage of “you can lead a horse to water” apply and we have to wait for normies to see the path before them. I wonder if anybody here has evolved thought on this or has found ways to avoid the “monsters from the id”?

Don't be discouraged by a single individual. Others are more receptive to solid arguments so keep discussing with them instead. Apropo.. I have a few doubts about EVs, can I shoot a few questions at you?

Yes, not everybody is the same and some will adapt faster than others, but how to avoid triggering the emotional connections to a legacy system or belief is a difficult challenge As for EV questions, sure, always happy to have a good, informed discussion about anything. I am not an evangelist for EVs to the same degree as I am with Bitcoin, but I do have years of knowledge and study providing me with a reasonably informed opinion.

Wow, that's an answer that I could write a book about. I'll try and condense it to a few sentences without loosing all the real meaning. Firstly, cars are 90 - 95% energy efficient, compared to cars which are around 30% efficient. If we burn that equivalent fossil fuel in central power stations, that efficiency rises to around 65%. So just burning the same fuel centrally to power the cars is more efficient. However that is not the general scenario. Firstly, many EV drivers get solar panels and home batteries and so generally contribute to the grid. Also as vehicle to grid technology gets adopted by more and more EVs, the grid becomes far better balanced. Think of the grid evolving into a peer to peer grid rather than the historic centralised grid (i.e. think analogous to Bitcoin decentralisation). This is already way further developed than you think. Also new homes are being built with 3 phase supplies, this means they can draw current much more efficiently than single phase homes, but they are also able to supply current to the grid at much higher rates when required. This is either from solar arrays or from your connected car donating small amounts of electricity at peak times and being paid for it. As for trucks buses and trains, trains are already electric and increasing in number. But as for trucks and buses I personally don't believe BEV (Battery Electric Vehicle) technology is best suited to those. Same as ferries and other large vehicles. I believe we do need to use fuel cells (hydrogen) for these large vehicles, but even if we don't then we are still either generating more electricity than required or burning fossil fuels centrally with much more efficiency. The grid has been evolving for years, it doesn't make the media, but it is totally different and unrecognisable to 10 years ago. That is a very short answer giving some small points, but the whole topic is enormous and fascinating if you wish to DYOR.

After years of using EVs there are issues reported about battery longetivity, second hand value, big repair costs, high insurance subsidised by ic owners, high manufacturing costs subsidised by government grants (tax on the rest)

From my understanding EV cars contain a lot precious minerals. Often mined in developing countries in unsustainable ways and by child labour. And that's just during this adoption phase. What would it look like during mass adoption?

I think this is mostly FUD, as we well know from Bitcoin. Let me address each point: Battery life. Yes batteries do degrade, but intelligent charging adopted by most EVs mitigate this. Our car has lost about 3% of the battery capacity after 3 years and 35,000 miles. There are many reports of Tesla taxis with over 500,000 miles on the clock and around 85% of their original battery capacity. FYI: The first service for an EV is at 500,000 miles. Second hand values, I’m not aware of this in reality at all, we are about to sell our 3 year old Tesla for about £25K after buying it for £50K, I think that is similar to petrol cars. High insurance, Tesla include insurance in their scheme, we don’t pay for insurance, but I have heard that other EVs can be high. I think that is the markets lack of understanding. EVs never go wrong and they are safer in every respect. Unless you have an accident, they don’t need repaired, if you do have an accident, insurance would pay for it. Generally EVs never go wrong, so I’m not sure where this idea comes from. So in terms of manufacturing, EVs cost a similar amount to petrol cars, but their are some subtle nuances here. A car is a car and is exactly the same to manufacture. The drivetrain is the difference. For petrol cars, you have an expensive engine, but incredibly cheap fuel tank. For EVs, the motors are cheap by comparison, but the batteries are expensive, meaning the range is a direct cost factor in an EV car. The negative side of EVs is that if you want to buy a cheap EV, then generally the cost is saved in battery capacity, this is a limitation on entry for many people looking to buy an inexpensive EV.

Sorry that reply was to a different question, but to answer the mineral mining question specifically. As a Bitcoiner, you should appreciate that all media coverage of both types of mining is FUD. We don’t talk about mining issues building weapons or houses or petrol cars or everything we manufacture. We mine what we mine for everything we want and need, we either stop mining and regress 1,000 years or we keep mining and keep developing. Don’t isolate a specific product or technology in your argument.

Also, this note is in reply to Norway who are trying to ban Bitcoin mining, ironically, Norway has just found the worlds largest seem of Cobalt, 10 times larger than the next largest which is in Morocco: https://primal.net/e/note1xhsxuzd78yclwt25w47ejp860r2f8j67xfzc7cwwzl4admegzvzq3f0rl6

I drive a hybrid and use in 90% on electric for commuting and errands in town. It's awesome. But for road trips and family outings I would be lost. Uk charging infrastructure is pretty poor in remote areas and it's hard to imagine remote forests and mountain areas having a sufficient infrastructure ever?

Public charging. Again Tesla win the day here. Their charging is comprehensive, cheap, reliable and incredibly easy to use. However for third party cars reliant on third party charging networks this has been a problem. My brother in law bought a Mercedes EV over a Tesla as he looked at Zap-map and saw thousands of chargers across the UK and assumed it wouldn’t be a problem. He lives in Salisbury, we live in Oxford and both my Wife and my Brother in law regularly visit their parents in the Scottish borders. When we drive north, charging is easy and we integrate it into a lunch or coffee stop, my brother in law has only tried driving his car north once and it was an awful experience, he didn’t have any accounts, apps or NFC cards to use the myriad of public chargers, which were few and far between. The situation is improving rapidly for third party chargers, but it is still an unpleasant experience and I wouldn’t buy anything other than a Tesla for the next few years for that very reason. As for remote charging. If I wanted to drive the Sahara desert, Amazon rainforest or Australian outback, I would choose a petrol car every time.

Yep, below freezing has a big impact on battery drain. Expect to cut the range estimate by a third and make sure you keep a decent level of charge in the car for general drain. There are plenty of people that use EVs in these conditions, but you do need to be aware of this. Petrol cars have the advantage of producing heat as a waste by product of their fuel explosions. EVs use electricity to heat the car which is inefficient compared to petrol. Modern EVs use heat pumps which are more efficient, but you still can't beat the heat produced by a petrol car which has no effect on range.

You’re welcome. Can I ask a question in return? Norway is a massive adopter of EVs, primarily because they would rather sell their oil than burn it. I am less familiar with EV take up in Sweden, how does it compare to Norway, or other countries like the UK? Are you familiar with the EV charging infrastructure within your country? Is it widespread or still quite limited? Any feedback would be welcome. Thank you

Some people simply don’t like EVs. Some people need to be lead to your preferred conclusion via a series of questions to make them feel they kind of came to your way themselves. Maybe ask questions about the problems with ICE(internal combustion engine) that EVs don’t have. Good luck.