10 years - optimistic outlook 

 Could well be the case 

What’s fun is 

1) what’s the probability of that?

2) what do I need to do to a) help that b) own equity in that growth 

🧐 

 Invite everyone you know to use nostr .

Also invite everyone who follows you on Twitter to start using nostr. 

Personally, I'm already doing it, which is why I've posted my services here. 

 5 minutes? 

 5 years 

 That would be massive 

 I'm thinking a thousand nostr clients will have been made. Most of which won't mention nostr to the user. 

 We have around 50k active users today. So 5mill, 100x. I hope we get there in 5 years.

1% of X  (500mill user)
0.2% of fb (2.5bill users)
0.15% yt (3bill users)

Sounds do-able. 5million is still very small slice of the pie.

Telegram ceo arrest / x banned in Brazil increased nostr active users from 40k to 50k  (so 25%. Increase)

Brazil has 21mil active x users. Assuming all 10k came from Brazil ( which I know its not) so only 0.04% of brazils x users have joined nostr. Very small. 

People just don't know about nostr. As soon as a few big high profile celebs join nostr, that could change fast.

If Elon Musk or Pavil Durov really cared about free speech, they would have accounts on nostr, and be promoting it. I've not a heard a peep out of them. Yeah nostr will put them out of business but I though Elon said he doesn't care about money. 🤔

 

 A good breakdown on the actual numbers 

So much to consider here

But yes maybe 5mil daily active in 5 years is a lot more reasonable 

 

You're absolutely right, 5 million is still a small part of the huge potential Nostr could reach.

 All it would take is for a few major celebrities to join and adoption would explode. 

With figures like Brazil's, it's clear that the room for growth is enormous. 

If Elon Musk and Pavel Durov really advocated freedom of expression, Nostr would be the place to be.

 But I guess it will just take a little longer for everyone to realize how important this network is 😉 

 It won't be long now. When Twitter counts go to crap. 

In just this year, I've created at least 4 Twitter accounts and 4 are already banned.