Oddbean new post about login | logout US Unemployment Rate 4.2% (actual) vs 4.2% (forecast) and 4.3% (prior) #Normalization, not #recession #macro
A lot of ppl don’t want to work or aren’t forced to work
7% gov deficit is not normalization
It is in a centrally-controlled system, like we have in the US. These are not "free" markets.
great moderation
I don't agree. Lots of volatility bc Fed has to trust the reports and numbers bureaus give them...which are walked back. Roller coaster. https://www.axios.com/2024/08/21/us-jobs-revisions-slower
And the correction adjustment is due when? 😆
Definition of Recession: noun The act of receding or withdrawing, as from a place, a claim, or a demand A period during which economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product, declines for at least two quarters in a row in a specific country. If the decline is severe and long, such as greater than ten percent, it may be termed a depression. Job statistics aren't really how you determine if you are in a recession. https://www.wordnik.com/words/recession
I think this is better than a hard crash, hopefully.