Oddbean new post about | logout
 Thanks to #Nostr I discovered The Fourth Turning. Always felt there was a cycle in history but they come with evidence and support my 2030 turning point year.

Thesis: History is a cycle of 80 years, with four archetypes of generations each of 20 years, living through the seasons of this cycle. This is a self fulfilling prophecy because history creates generations and generations create history.

Generation types: 

1. Prophets (idealistic and great leaders)
2. Nomads (individualistic and hard working)
3. Heros (civic, teamwork, hubris, overachievers) these are the Millennials 
4. Artist (a silent generation, compassionate and accepting, but rebellious)

The seasons:

1. First Turning: Spring after a Crisis, unity and optimism 
2. Second Turning: Summer - Awakening, prosperity rises
3. Third Turning: Autumn - Unraveling, society weakens
4. Fourth Turning: Winter - Crisis, disruption of society, collapse and beginning of rebuilding.

As per the time cycle The Third Turning the unraveling started roundabout 2005 (ok 2008, give them a break they predicted this in the 80s) and peak will be in the 2020s. Well hello Covid, Russian-Ukrainian War, mass migrations, great devaluation of money through inflation. We are right on mark.

By 2030 the crisis will be over and the new order will be in place. We are expecting a good Fourth Turning with the Prophets as leaders and the Hero generation as the main engine in society, with AI, with new tech, with space travel and yes #Bitcoin. This will send us to an extraordinary time in human history, a positive one. 
 Certainly feels as though the crisis is here, let's hope it's not a war and a softer turning. 
 Pffft I wan't the sun to slap us down with a massive EMP big enough to be recorded in the tree rings.  😂 

Take away all the toys so they can't be used against us... 
 LUDDITES, ASSEMBLE! 
 we be steampunks

steam tech works without electricity, so do springs and wheels and gears 
 I like a steam engine