Oddbean new post about | logout
▲ ▼
goatmeal | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 polymarket cannot be accurate or inaccurate. it doesn't tell you what will happen. it tells you what its users think will happen. that's all it does.
▲ ▼
7fqx | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Sure, but most people are saying trump will win the election. I want to see if most people using polymarket are correct.

It is also saying most users think he will lose the popular vote.

A, yes. More accurately, I would like to see if majority opinions on polymarket come about.
▲ ▼
zephir | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 And interestingly it’s mostly people not voting in the actual election, right? I thought it’s not technically open to people in the USA.
▲ ▼
7fqx | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag 
 Oh, I assumed they were mostly Americans. Probably Americans with vpns lol. I didn't know it wasn't allowed
▲ ▼
zephir | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 That’s my assumption too, and then maybe that demographic skews towards the candidate the bettors imagine will pump their bags more?
▲ ▼
goatmeal | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 I live in the US and I've used it. just the frontend is a website that geoblocks the US. it doesn't have any heavy KYC or anything and it's trivial to get around. there is no way of knowing how many users are from the US.
▲ ▼
zephir | 1 months ago (raw) | root | parent | reply | flag +1 
 yeah, weird, via Bloomberg 4 days ago https://i.nostr.build/ujALsloqgJ6SZri8.jpg