Oddbean new post about login | logout @393f4547 I think you're right - but the collapse will largely come from new journalists not seeing Twitter as relevant. Existing relatively high profile journalists will stay because of sunk cost and network effects, so we'll see a slow die-off over years due to lack of replacement rather than abandonment per se.
@b870d4c8 Absolutely, and probably an utterly cringe phase where new journalists are "encouraged" to hang out on the dying website
@393f4547 @b870d4c8 I’m just sorry for those who had Twitter for sharing vital info quick and without having to “perform” like on tiktok. And had the low data option to do that. I used to follow a lot of human rights activists, some of them I know, none of them really make the “jump” to mastodon, they went back to Twitter, their best shot. They work in the GCC and the GCC is on Twitter and FB. Also Africa. They also need Europeans to be there-so Threads is out.
@393f4547 yes, and/or be forced to post for their veteran colleague
@b870d4c8 @393f4547 this is a very good point - the interesting thing is where the new wave of journalists go to - many will follow and continue using twitter for same reasons as their seniors do. But something else will pop up, in a way like Substack has created / and packaged a new form of content distribution (this is not an argument saying that it is better, just that it's now an established alternative platform)
@2c841a34 @393f4547 maybe nothing else will replace all the elements. Twitter emerged during a time when even having a website was a pretty new thing for journalists, let alone social media. So it could represent a kind of Standard Oil/IBM moment before an industry becomes mature.
@b870d4c8 @393f4547 yes, agree. I think there will actually be a reflection on how best to store and distribute journalistic content. Perhaps back to use of websites / blogs / newsletters, with #twitter / #X, #fediverse and #threads being considered more as distribution platforms rather than places for content creation.
@2c841a34 @393f4547 I wish I could agree, but the journalism/news media industry has just been thrashing around in a non-strategic panic for the last 20 years since Google and Facebook started to eat their lunch (advertising revenue). We might see a general collapse, because no one has developed a replacement business model.