Is a Recession Imminent? The Fed's Leading Indicator, Which Hasn't Been Wrong Since 1966, Offers a Clear Answer.
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The article discusses the possibility of a recession in the U.S. based on the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's leading indicator. The indicator uses the spread between the 10-year Treasury bond and three-month Treasury bill to determine the likelihood of a recession in the next 12 months. Currently, there is a 61.47% probability of a recession by or before January 2025, which is one of the highest probabilities since the early 1980s. The article also highlights that recessions can have a significant impact on the stock market, with poor performance following an official recession declaration. However, the article emphasizes that recessions and stock market corrections are short-lived events, and long-term investors should not worry. The average length of bear markets is 286 calendar days, while bull markets typically last for 1,011 calendar days. The article concludes by stating that patience and perspective are key when investing in the stock market.

#Recession #U.s.Economy #StockMarket #FederalReserveBankOfNewYork #Indicator

https://emeatribune.com/is-a-recession-imminent-the-feds-leading-indicator-which-hasnt-been-wrong-since-1966-offers-a-clear-answer/