Mouth ulcers are caused by viruses. Herpes related. They infect nerve cells and remain dormant for much of your life. Until they don't. Its probable an environmental trigger causes their activation (but not known), however an open dry mouth would cause more rapid cell destruction than a moist one , and like bolting in plants, may trigger the virus to 'bolt and spread.'.
They can be caused by HSV-1 or cytomegalovirus or vericella zoster. But most aphthous ulcers don't shed any virus, and the literature is quick to point to traumatic injury to the oral mucosa. But in my case I can (rarely) feel them coming on before they break the surface, so injury to the oral mucosa is not the cause. Maybe mine are viral, maybe they could determine that. They run in my family.