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 I would guess the crowd who left for Bluesky are mostly back on twitter(?) 
 A lot of the spammy, engagement bait ones did, but a lot of Brasilians have said they’re staying, some even in my replies on Bluesky. 
 That's pretty good for bs, I think bluesky has less of a struggle with retention rates than nostr for sure. 
 Agree. And I know a lot of people n Nostr disapprove of Bluesky because “corporation bad”, but it’s not Twitter, so.. 

and the APIs are always locked open, since you always have direct read/write access to PDSs 
 I'm totally tech illiterate and don't really understand either protocol tbh lol. I'm a total casual idiot user.

Culturally I think bluesky and nostr do suffer from fairly strong embedded user groups. Nostr is obviously bitcointwitter rubbish -heavy and bluesky has a lot of LeftTwitter2010s vibes. Both can be quite repellent to users outside of those groups (by accident or on purpose, a bit of both maybe). Bluesky has sort of broken out somewhat. 

I think it's a bit of a problem still for both, moreso perhaps nostr which is much smaller as a userbase and topic-breadth or something. They both do kind of have bad reputations outside of their bubbles, and can be unwelcoming in different ways.

I'm not sure how either succeed long-term tbh. Will be interesting to see, or what comes next. Or if it's just even more balkanised social media protocols lol ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

I believe one of the issues nostr people have with 'corporation bad' Bluesky, is that it is a central point failure maybe? How is bluesky sustainable? I have no idea tbh 🤔