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 He said he’d do it “on day one” so we’ll know fairly quickly what type of liar he is 
 That is a straight up lie 
Or I believe they're referred to "campaign promises"

There is no incentive for him to do it (for what, maybe 10k crypto freaks) and let the Dems paint him as soft on crime for his entire term 
 Counterpoint, he won't be running for reelection and the opinions of his enemies don't really matter.  There are a hundred other things he can do to shore up his legacy before he's done.  
 Being a narcissist everything revolves around his public perception.
particularly being perceived as strong.

He won't do anything that gives an opportunity to portray him as weak in any way.
There are hundred things he CAN do but  there are a lot more things that are less risky with more benefit.

I really hope I'm wrong though 😕 
 and hey
sometimes crazy people do crazy things  
 Oh well if he said so 🤷‍♂️🙈