I see it in a similar way except that larger transactions will be prioritized meaning that small transactions might wait even longer than 22 years.  

I view bitcoin as a replacement for FedWire. Exchanges, ecash federations, countries and whales will use L1. Everyone else will use L2s etc. 

 Yup. Bitcoin is primarily a store of value. E-cash transfers will happen on Bitcoin L2-L3s. 

 To expand, I would say that L1 fees will be as high as people can afford, regardless of how much optimization is done to L1.

Low value transactions will have to go via L2-L3s.