Oddbean

We (the US) hate Iran because Israel hates Iran, and Israel controls us. I'm pretty sure that's all. The Iranian theocracy is oppressive to human rights. But that doesn't mean military action against Iran is gonna fix that... in fact it will probably make it worse. There are oppressive governments everywhere that we don't hate... so I don't believe for a second it has anything to do with their oppressive theocracy. in 1906 or so, D'Arcy from Britain bought an oil prospecting concession from a corrupt Iranian government, struck oil, then the UK government nationalized the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) and changed over all their military ships to oil (from coal) making Iranian oil a strategic asset. But the Iranians became bitter that England got so wealthy from their resource, and they were tied down to a contract that was a really bad deal for them. Anyhow, that got much worse after Russia and England went to war with Iran in the 1930s. Many Iranians felt they had forefit their property rights by going to war with Iran, and so in 1950 when Mosaddegh became P.M. and he nationalized the oil refinery and kicked out the Brits, the people of Iran loved him. He was on the cover of Time Magazine. The Brits were furious and wanted military action, but Truman wouldn't help them. In 1953 when Eisenhower became US president, he was willing to help the Brits and they overthrew the only democratic government Iran ever had (the Brits lied to the Americans, telling them they needed to do this to protect against Socialism). From 1953 to 1979, the US and Iran were allies, under the Authoritarian rule of the Shaw. The US started their nuclear program. The US used Iran as a base from which to project power. Almost a million Americans moved to or visited Iran during that period, and Iranians moved to and studied in America. But there was a lot of hatred of America for their coup, and of the Shaw for his human rights abuses, and how their democracy was crushed and the people had no power anymore and were stuck under this authoritarian dictator propped up by America. And people became fearful and paranoid about America and the CIA and they eventually overthrew the government (this is called the Islamic Revolution of 1979) and put in an Islamic regime which IMHO they felt was strong enough to fight off America. They were very anti-free-speech, for example, because free speech was how the CIA tricked everybody during the coup. Anybody who might be a secret agent of America was arrested, organisations with non-standard opinions were supressed in fear that America was going to coup them again. And Iran became very repressive and authoritarian as an over-reaction to having been coup-ed. Iranians loved the United States until 1953. Then they hated it. They all remember why. Iran sees itself as a regional hegemon. They feel it is their responsibility to maintain peace and security in the surrounding area. They see Israel as the cause of all the violence in the area, and so they have worked to defeat Israel through indirect means (Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis). Russia and China both affirm Iran's position as a regional hegemon working to establish peace and security for the area. Israel works to establish war, constantly provoking it's neighbors, assassinating in Lebanon, in Iran, committing a slow-motion genocide against Palestinians. And Israel paints Iran as the aggressor rather than the state that responds to Israeli aggression. Israel has claimed it will retaliate if Iran retaliates, and even has suggested it may preemtively retaliate. Even a child can see that is unjust. You don't get to justifiably retaliate against a retaliation, which is the punishment, which is the thing that should settle matters. And you certainly can't pre-emptively retaliate against a retaliation to your attack because that is just: Israel attacks + Isreal attacks again.... no justice in that. So Iran has a real serious challenge here. They have been trying to avoid war, but Israel is flat out not going to let them. Commentators have been saying Iran has to calibrate their attack, to make it strong enough to deter Israeli aggression, but not so strong as to cause a full scale war. But that presumes the impossible, because even a tiny attack will cause a full scale war, and even a huge attack will not deter Israel. So whether there is a massive war in the middle east is not up to Iran. They are forced into it. And Russia and afterwards China will participate in it... making it a good candidate for that label we keep tossing around: World War 3