Oddbean new post about | logout
 Here’s my assumption. The average home will cost 1 million not 5. 
 Nooo bro we don’t want bitcoin to go up so much bc a cheeseburger will cost $10,000 bro nooo /s. 
 In 2045? People are seriously underestimating just how bad the debt situation is. The world is going to be completely different in 2045 and I don't think millions will be the standard anymore. 
 I’d say that you’re overestimating how hot inflation is going to run. I doubt we get hyperinflation in the next twenty years. 
 I could give you a whole lengthy thesis on how none of the math makes sense and how much money will need to be printed, but I am instead going to take the 70 IQ approach and just present these two graphs.

Here is the SP500 and here are interest expenses. Both are accelerating upwards and both have systemic reasons why they will continue to increase.

At some point both these lines will look so stupid that it will become obvious that something is terribly wrong. Should've been obvious when the market was pumping while nobody was working but that's besides the point. Once it is obvious, the real transition begins.

TLDR: This fiat shit is cooked. Line go up.
https://i.nostr.build/BTzo1hd4K1LnXQgy.png
https://i.nostr.build/LM0N6D9V1gCXydpt.png