Oddbean

The Age of the Enlightenment was The Wold War of Ideas I. Those who had the best ideas won the war, as they in the 18th and 19th century inspired millions of people to liberate themselves from empires. Unfortunately they soon lost the peace. The main reason was that the political elite managed to coordinate their monetary monopolies, by directing this deadly weapon against their own peoples. Today we are in the beginning of The Wold War of Ideas II. The odds are IMO favourable for the people with the best ideas. And Bitcoin makes it difficult for the political class to use the money printers to win the peace. But they will try hard nonetheless. I'll give you a few examples of the cost of winning and losing a war of ideas in this thread. *** In 9 AD the Germanic people dealt the Roman empire a blow that ensured the German peoples a long lasting sovereignty and freedom from the empire's oppression. Their fight in the Battle of the Teutoburg Forest was inspired by a wish to not be ruled by foreigners. The cost for the forces controlled by Arminius the rebel might have been about a thousand men per day in a battle that lasted 3-4 days. *** The 80 years war was a series of battles that liberated the Dutch from the Habsburg empire, beginning with a rebellion in 1566. The uprising was triggered by the decision of the emperor of Spain, Philip II, to wipe out the protestants and make catolicism obligatory. The liberation gave the spark to what became The Dutch Golden Age, which roughly lasted from 1588 to 1672. This coincided with the beginning of The Age of the Enlightenment. The cost in terms of Dutch men that died in these battles was about on average one man per day over these 80 years. *** The American revolutionary wars against the British empire lasted for about six years, followed by a peace treaty signed in 1783. About 6,800 soldiers fighting for independence died in these battles, which equals about four men per day. *** The Argentine War of Independence against the Spanish empire lasted from about 1810 to 1816. It's hard to come by data on casualties, but I've read that on the rebels side, 1,200 either died, were imprisoned or wounded. When I ask Grok, it says it doesn't know but estimates it was "several thousands." I would assume it can have been on average 1 to 4 men per day over this six year period. *** The casualties on the rebels' side in these major successful wars of independence are surprisingly low. We can compare this with a couple of examples from how many men died in major battles motivated by the rulers' ambitions to expand their empires. *** When the Roman empire was defeated by the Germanic tribes in the Teutoburg Forest, something between 25,000 to 30,000 of their men died in three to four days. This means that the Roman empire sacrificed 6,000 to 10,000 men, to achieve nothing but a major setback. *** When the Norwegian inflationist king Harald Hardrada in 1066 AD attempted to take over England, he and some 5-7,000 thousand men died in one day. *** Although these examples are anecdotes, they tell us that the cost of fighting to reclaim freedom in the most successful acts of liberation sometimes have been much lower than the cost of being subjected to ruler's expansionary wars. *** This doesn't mean that I in general support physical uprisings. On the contrary. We must understand that we risk losing the battle of ideas if someone resorts to violence without acting out of a situation where physical self defence is required. This insight partly grows out of historical events were rulers have staged coups against themselves and clamped down hard on them, in an attempt to show the people how risky it is to question the legitimacy of their power. Therefore, if you want to win The World War of Ideas II, choose your means wisely and timely. Focus on identifying superior ideas and practice how you communicate and defend them. *** In conclusion: If we play our game wisely, we can win both The World War of Ideas II as well as the peace.