Oddbean

The decoupling of #Bitcoin from global liquidity* (yellow line) is insanely bullish. In other words, central banks haven't even started their money printing and #Bitcoin is still close to the ATH. ——————— *The Global Liquidity Index offers a consolidated view of all major central bank balance sheets from around the world. Global Liquidity Index = Federal Reserve System (FED) - Treasury General Account (TGA) - Reverse Repurchase Agreements (RRP) + European Central Bank (ECB) + People's Bank of China (PBC) + Bank of Japan (BOJ) + Bank of England (BOE) + Bank of Canada (BOC) + Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) + Reserve Bank of India (RBI) + Swiss National Bank (SNB) + Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR) + Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) + Bank of Korea (BOK) + Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) + Sweden's Central Bank (Riksbank) + Central Bank of Malaysia (BNM). https://image.nostr.build/15b2903b414099f7f8c73c35bfa8d0ae72b4e42c549230f3583291e1dcab2c94.jpg

I wouldn't call it a decoupling, because IMHO it's just that every new ATH of the monetary mass sets a new floor for BTC's market cap. So it's BTC's price is still strongly correlated to the money printing in order to go up, just not so strongly when it's going down maybe. I personally think this will continue until we reach the "natural" range in market cap at which BTC will finally become gold-like in terms of being seen as a risk-off investment. Is that when we hit gold's market cap (at current prices, $800k-ish)? Before we do that, say at half gold's market cap ($400k-ish)? Or given BTC's intrinsic nature, will we need to double gold's market cap and exceed $1.5M before we stop having "risk-on"-like behavior, and we are equally correlated on the way down as we are on the way up, but with a lot less volatility in both cases?

It’s gold but with better properties than gold; you’re definitely on the right track but I wouldn’t expect it to find that equilibrium until well after 4-5X gold. The difficulty of putting a price on that is Gold is one of the first things that will lose its monetary premium to Bitcoin even though it’s gonna keep going up due to monetary expansion. They’re both moving targets against each other. I don’t expect Bitcoin will ever fully take the premium out of real estate, not this century any way. Bonds though are a good shot, who knows with Art and other oddities - probably a mixed bag. Bitcoin will be a lot more integrated into the workings of the digital realm before it levels out volatility, whilst the knowledge is asymmetrical it’s gonna keep swinging wildly.