Oddbean new post about | logout
 Yeah but they know it's going to happen 
 Do they? It’s just political theater at this point. 
 To me it looks like everyone's playing the game of not being blamed for inevitable crash.  FED paused hikes 'Oh, well WE didn't do it', congress barely passes spending 'Oh well, WE didn't do it.'

Next up is a bunch of people just not paying their student loans and that would diffuse the responsibility onto a nice punching bag wtihout any actual power so that's my next hope because this clown ZIRP market needs to correct. 
 Oh that’s the thing. People won’t actually default on unpaid student loans until next year. Biden put in this thing where your credit won’t get dinged for the first year you “owe” payments. I think they still accumulate and you eventually need to pay the piper all at once, but I bet they won’t even follow through on that.

But I think indebted millennials are by and large going to respond to the student loan question with “actually I’m not paying that, fuck you, final answer.” So I think push is going to come to shove on this topic, just not right away. 
 I'm more curious about the securities their loans are bundled into and the shape they are in and whey they make their coupon payments and how many times they will be allowed to miss before they are marked down.

Also from what I understand with the student loans they won't lien your bank account and yeet the funds. 
 They won’t do anything to the consumers of these loans for about a year as I understand it. The underlying securities, I don’t know. It’s the government, so they might have some special treatment there for that reason. A lot of special treatment.

I’m kind of expecting the student loan shit to drag out for another decade or so personally.