Oddbean

True, therefore we will most likely never see bitcoin below 60k again. Dude, you used to make these spot on predictions back in the day. Now all these chart charlatans took over your job and they are pretty lame.

Honestly that is not the best model for pricing btc. Also cost of production is not a good way to price #BTC either. Further more, both power law functions and stock to flow are not valid. The issue wrt pricing #BTC is that there is only one viable use case which is #HODL to protect from inflation. So I am looking for ways to model that. Couple ideas that seem good: 1. X * global mattress money 2. Y * global debt 3. Z * total equity market cap So on this case x could be much larger than 1.0 Possibly possibly 10. Or Y could be a number between 0.01 and 0.05 Or Z being some where between 0.05 and 0.10 So saying that in English words, #BITCOIN market cap could ultimately equal 10 times the global mattress money or possibly 5% of the total global debt markets or somewhere between 5% and 10% of the global equity markets. Since each and every one of these grow annually at somewhere between 3% and 12%, the expectation is that BTC will grow at somewhere between 3% and 10% once it’s reached its established equilibrium