I think this totally depends on incentives. As digital payment alternative I think it has some way to go in a sense, that it can be cheaper than a traditional visa/mastercard POS. So from merchant point of view, it is a good alternative. What do you think?
in theory, custodial btc should cost the same to transact in as any fiat solution. if @jack decided to let ppl choose to use/accept bitcoin via square tomorrow- would ppl use bitcoin as money?
I am not sure about the first statement. Generally card payments are closed systems, therefore quite hard to get in. This prevents high competition in my opinion. Therefore they can set their prices high. This is harder to achieve on an open protocol. I would use this to explain why there is quite limited number of known card payment companies. For the question, another question: Do you think people generally understand bitcoin?