Oddbean

#Bitcoin is playing in big leagues now and the game is at a new level. How I suspect it plays out: An attempt to capture as much as #Bitcoin as possible including regulation to “try” to slow self custody of #Bitcoin (Warren et all) and leverage games on paper #Bitcoin to reduce price. (ETF’s) Which “causes” more Bitcoiners aware of the manipulation and how the game is being played to use lower prices to buy and self custody more #Bitcoin (reducing supply) Which at some point creates a short squeeze of MEGA proportions (maybe along with halving - maybe later ) that liquidates a major financial player. (Similar to FTX) Money has become a monopoly because of the games that have been able to be played with others assets due to the centralization and control of those assets. But Wall Street has never seen an asset like this. It is not gold and too many #Bitcoiners know how the game is played, meaning if you don’t play by the rules, eventually you will be caught short. (And no one is coming to save you) Or as @ODELL says: Stay humble and stack sats.

I am not underestimating at all! If something can be controlled, it will be. History and human greed ensure it bc of the power it brings. That is fight I’m expecting…and I’m prepared. Just letting others know so they don’t get spooked and sell theirs.

Wall Street don't need to or want to own bitcoin. They just need to convince the majority of people that they own bitcoin, which is what etf's represent and pretty soon they will control most of the flow, which is all they were ever interested in. They have no interest in fighting, it's not how these people operate, nor in what self custody bitcoiners do on the sidelines. To see this as a fight, is to have already lost. This doesn't stop amazing things from being created in the sidelines, including the tools which will help you and other like minded people to live and survive in a less fiat money world. Staying clear minded is the fight.

Devil is in the details id imagine. Fidelity is building out its own self custody infrastructure but i believe th rest are using coinbase as a custodian. So coinbase will be moving a bit of paper between the accts i guess 🤷‍♂️

Not only is “stay humble, & stack sats” a brilliant philosophy I think you’re so on point re the awareness of bitcoiners Specifically the ability to self-custody & ride out the storm Gold was so hard to custody, at some point it could be taken Plus information about the manipulation of gold wasnt as rife Ie gold holders didn’t know as much about the problem as bitcoiners As another point, I think the short-term volatility is so different vs gold It’s like the back of a hedgehog in that it’s a self-defence mechanism Sure, short gold, & it moves perhaps 25% Short Bitcoin & it does a 5x. Boom. Wiped out Fascinating times ahead

If ETF keep on moving 1 billion USD per day into #Bitcoin than the US confiscating 300 billion from Russia wouldn't look as evil. nostr:note10mv6jtj6ey4vfufr6qm9yahvtqx955kj2nsvmapqejg9grps229qj4cd5z

ETF IS PAPER BITCOIN. NO MATTER WHAT THEY SAY ABOUT IT BEING 1:1 BACKED. THEY WILL FIND A WAY TO EXPLOIT IT, BECAUSE IT'S NOT BITCOIN AND ANYTHING NOT BITCOIN IS PAPER. THEY WILL PULL IN THE MAJOR INSTITUTIONAL DEMAND ONTO PAPER BITCOIN AND SUPPRESSING THE ACTUAL BITCOIN PRICE, WHILE THEY BUY OFF ACTUAL UTXOS ONTO THEIR OWN POCKETS AND KEEP SELLING NEWCOMERS PAPAER ETF CORN. THIS WILL KEEP HAPPENING UNTIL SOMEONE BIG ACTUALLY GETS DENIED TO HAVE THEIR COINS AGAINST THEIR ETF HOLDINGS AND THAT WILL CAUSE THE BIGGEST SHORT SQUEEZE AND CAUSING MAJOR AWARENESS OF 'NOT YOUR KEYS, NOT YOUR COINS' AND TRIGGERING HYPERBITCOINISATION CYCLE. SO YEAH I AGREE JEFF WITH EVERYTHING YOU SAY AND WILL AS ALWAYS BE GRATEFUL FOR YOUR WORK. SORRY FOR THE CAPS, BUT YOU MENTIONED @ODELL 😅 LOTS OF CHEAP SATS COMING OUR WAY BUT THIS WILL BE THE LAST OPPORTUNITY EVERYONE!

Noone is coming to save you. Stack accordingly. nostr:nevent1qqs8akdf9edvj2ky7y3aqdjjwmk9srz62tf9fcxd7ssveyz5psc99zsppamhxue69uhkummnw3ezumt0d5pzpqlgrr0man8226c0252hdvla8xn62rsas9vngdgqx686ppwvm9jtqvzqqqqqqy4aurem

How much of the supply can the ETFs acquire? Maybe a million? Tops 1.5? I think only 3 of them will survive. BR, Fidelity, and who knows…. The one that makes their wallet publicly auditable will win.

How it's going to play out There's going to be a Government Official/Artificial Rate And There's going to be a Black/Free Market Real Rate nostr:nevent1qqs8akdf9edvj2ky7y3aqdjjwmk9srz62tf9fcxd7ssveyz5psc99zspz3mhxue69uhhyetvv9ujuerpd46hxtnfdupzpqlgrr0man8226c0252hdvla8xn62rsas9vngdgqx686ppwvm9jtqvzqqqqqqyw2as7w

Money has become a monopoly because of the games that have been able to be played with others assets due to the centralization and control of those assets. nostr:note10mv6jtj6ey4vfufr6qm9yahvtqx955kj2nsvmapqejg9grps229qj4cd5z

This video was interesting because it showed the decrease in liquid coins over time. I reckon we’re a few halvings away from fully draining exchanges but when that happens absolutely tradfi is going to get REKT https://youtu.be/uwd4tTX7918

Maybe a dumb question, but somewhat related. I’m still learning… Where does the bitcoin come from to supply all the banks selling it for the EFTs? Who’s selling their bitcoin? And why? Mining alone isn’t enough right? I think there’s a bigger market that I’m ignorant of, just curious how it works

Agreed. Jeff. Hard to see it play out any differently. Suppression is the intention, but it’s never been tried on a truly scarce asset. Gold while scarce, is slightly more liquid. It will depend on how much futures, stables and ETF dollar flows end up being, IMO. Dangerous either way. Odd for an industry whose primary roll is fiduciary decisions.

I wish you luck trying to margin call the FIAT royalty, Jeff. I remember how the GME “squeeze” was handled, and everyone should study that. They can make or break any rule at any time. You cannot win against them in the FIAT realm. The war for a better money will have to be fought in cyberspace AND in real space, where the people BUILDING the things civilization wants will need to understand they have to use Bitcoin instead of FIAT. Good luck.

#bitcoin was always big league, it's the new players that are catching up. For those who are early, we sit back, stack sats, and watch the show unfold. The new players will bring their FIAT tools to play and will quite possibly rug themselves.

Wow @Jeff Booth what an interesting analysis. I can for sure see the "powers that be" realizing they are behind the eight ball and using the more centralized assets as a trojan horse to attack and slow the industry as a whole to buy more time. Using centralization as a weapon; a tale as old as time and a weapon they already know works so well...

My understanding is that the ETFs must hold the underlying. COIN as a custodian in most cases. This is readily auditable on chain. So I’m not sure how ‘paper’ btc occurs. But I could be misinformed