Oddbean new post about login | logout The X algo has started throwing a ton of posts at me from the "Irresponsibly Long $MSTR" community. Feels pretty pumpy & super sketchy.
Same with Megalopolis movie. "The worst movie ever" they say... Going to check it out myself later today.... https://m.primal.net/Llop.jpg
It’s solid. It’s going to pull a nvda type move and get to over 1k again like it did pre-split.
Not seeing the same on my FYP. Guess the algo hasn't made the same connection.
The valuation in BTC simply makes no sense for me. They would have to raise a lot more debt capital and BTC would have to rise massively to reach the valuation level in BTC.
Lots of paper Bitcoin is being bought. All the spot ETFs already have a supply of Bitcoin purchased by investors. If people only bought spot and transferred it to their own hardware wallets, we would already be much higher.
And that is the reason why it currently makes no sense to buy MSTR. Spot BTC is much safer. It is quite possible that MSTR will stop rising in fiat at some point, while BTC catches up. For me, there is currently too much fantasy in the MSTR price about future levarage transactions.
Yep, correlation could be causation in this case? What if the AI is all in bitcoin? 🤔
Yah the group is full of moonbois. Some interesting analysis, but a lot of peeps hoping their 20 shares will make them a millionaire. That being said, for a lot of people, myself included, MSTR is the only way to gain Bitcoin exposure in their 401ks. I went heavy into MSTR in 2020, and continued to add to it even when the ETFs went live, because I couldn’t buy them in my account. MSTR is still relatively unknown and i think it continues to go up from here. But I do think it will peak before Bitcoin hits its top this cycle.
