Smart money's looking beyond China stimulus debate
==========

Investors are seeking short-term stimulus for China's economy while Beijing focuses on long-term tech-driven reforms; President Xi Jinping's Ministry of Finance hinted at potential stimulus on October 12, 2024, but provided no specific details, causing market fluctuations; Chinese stocks have rebounded from a $6.5 trillion decline since 2021; economists predict China's growth at 4.9% for 2024, with a focus on structural reforms; concerns remain over the effectiveness of past policies and the need for deeper economic reforms; upcoming National People's Congress may clarify future fiscal measures.

#China #Economy #Stimulus #XiJinping #Investors #Stocks #Reforms #Growth #Policy #Finance

https://asiatimes.com/2024/10/smart-moneys-looking-beyond-china-stimulus-debate/ 

 Trump’s economic program would weaken the US – and Australia
==========

Donald Trump is likely to be elected US president in four weeks; his economic program includes mass deportations of up to 20 million unauthorized immigrants, steep tariff hikes including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports, and presidential influence over interest rates; the Peterson Institute for International Economics models the consequences, predicting the US economy could be 6.7% weaker by 2035 under extreme scenarios; Australia would be the fourth-worst hit, with a potential 0.2% economic decline; Trump's policies could push inflation higher and make the US less attractive for investment; the modeling is based on established economic models and assumes Trump will follow through on his promises.

#Trump #Economy #Australia #Tariffs #Deportation #Inflation #PetersonInstitute #UsElections #China #EconomicModeling

https://asiatimes.com/2024/10/trumps-economic-program-would-weaken-the-us-and-australia/ 

 China wakes, US builds, woke wanes and tariffs tally
==========

China is waking up to economic realities; Xi Jinping's government is implementing significant stimulus measures, including a record interest rate cut and potential capital injection of up to 1 trillion yuan (US$142 billion) into state banks; US industrial policy is shifting towards supporting domestic manufacturing, with TSMC's Arizona plant producing advanced chips for Apple ahead of schedule; Biden's administration is tightening tariffs on Chinese imports, while Trump advocates for more tariffs; wokeness is declining in the US, with discussions peaking in 2021-22 and now receding; dockworkers threaten a strike on October 1, 2024, against automation at US ports, which could disrupt the economy.

#China #Us #Economy #Wokeness #Tariffs #IndustrialPolicy #Stimulus #Labor #Automation #Politics

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/china-wakes-us-builds-woke-wanes-and-tariffs-tally/ 

 Why 'King Dollar' could scoff at Fed rate cuts
==========

The US dollar may not fall despite expected Federal Reserve rate cuts; US national debt exceeds $35 trillion; Fed's rate cuts anticipated on September 17-18, 2024; Goldman Sachs' Isabella Rosenberg highlights the importance of global central bank policies; dollar strength impacts emerging markets negatively; political polarization in the US affects credit ratings; Fitch Ratings downgraded US credit due to January 6, 2021 insurrection; Bank of Japan raised rates to 0.25% on July 31, 2024; US inflation at 2.5% year-on-year in August 2024; UBS projects long-term pressure on the dollar due to fiscal deficit; BRICS nations pushing for de-dollarization; China's yuan reached 47% of global payments in March 2024.

#UsDollar #FederalReserve #InterestRates #GlobalEconomy #Dedollarization #China #Inflation #EmergingMarkets #Politics #Currency

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/why-king-dollar-could-scoff-at-fed-rate-cuts/ 

 Where is American empire's fall taking us all?
==========

Richard D Wolff discusses the decline of the US empire, which peaked between 1945 and 2010; highlights the over-extension of coping mechanisms leading to military failures in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, and Iraq; notes the rise of BRICS as a counter to US policies; emphasizes the decline of the US dollar as a reserve currency; suggests that China may not seek hegemony but a multipolar world; draws parallels between historical empires and current US-China relations; warns of potential nuclear conflict; advocates for US-China cooperation on climate change and wealth inequality.

#UsEmpire #China #Brics #Geopolitics #Decline #NuclearWar #Multipolarity #Economics #History #InternationalRelations

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/where-is-american-empires-fall-taking-us-all/ 

 China's sluggish factories spurring hotter stimulus calls
==========

China's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.1 in August 2024, marking four consecutive months of contraction; the economy is struggling with a property crisis and low consumer spending; Goldman Sachs economist Yuting Yang calls for more fiscal easing to meet a 5% growth target; trade tensions and local government debt limit Beijing's ability to stimulate demand; Xi Jinping's government is under pressure to shift from investment-led growth to domestic demand; the property crisis is causing consumer confidence to drop, leading to a projected slowdown in household consumption growth to 3-4% annually; China's trade surplus reached $858 billion, about 4.8% of GDP; economists warn that without significant reforms, long-term GDP growth may be limited to around 3%; signals from Xi and Premier Li Qiang indicate potential reforms to support private sector development and improve local government finances.

#China #Economy #Manufacturing #Stimulus #Pmi #PropertyCrisis #ConsumerSpending #TradeSurplus #Reforms #XiJinping

https://asiatimes.com/2024/09/chinas-sluggish-factories-spurring-hotter-stimulus-calls/ 

 China looking like a 'buy' as US, Japan markets sag
==========

China's beaten-down markets are becoming more attractive as global investors dump US and Japanese stocks. The US and Japanese economies are facing challenges, with slowing employment growth in the US and abject trauma in Tokyo following the Bank of Japan's rate hike. China has the opportunity to appear as a bastion of stability amidst the turbulence. However, China needs to improve its capital markets and increase transparency to build trust among global investors. Chinese assets are expected to become a better choice for global funds in the current global market turmoil. The question is whether China is a 'buy' with its low valuations and improving fundamentals.

#China #Us #Japan #StockMarket #Investors

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/china-looking-like-a-buy-as-us-japan-markets-sag/ 

 US unemployment jumps as handout high wears off
==========

The US unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July, the highest level in three years, as the US economy added just 114,000 jobs, far below the consensus estimate of 175,000. Consumers accounted for 1.6 percentage points of annualized GDP growth during the second quarter of this year, out of a total of 2.6 percentage points of annualized growth. Federal economic stimulus in the form of higher transfer payments has been the main driver of nominal growth under the Biden administration, as well as the chief source of inflation. Transfer payments under the Biden administration remain about 20% above the long-term trend.

#UsUnemployment #UsEconomy #FederalTransferPayments #Inflation

https://asiatimes.com/2024/08/us-unemployment-jumps-as-handout-high-wears-off/ 

 Risk to resilience: China's economic security strategy
==========

China is retooling its economy for a new geopolitical age; China introduced the concept of "comprehensive national security" in 2014; China's economic vulnerabilities were exposed by the Covid-19 pandemic; China faces challenges from demographic shift and financial risks; China implemented a "three-red lines" policy package in 2020 to address high debt levels in the property sector; China seeks to align private enterprises' interests with national goals; China's state-led industrial policy aims to accelerate high-tech development; China will continue to advocate for free trade agreements and promote the Belt and Road Initiative; The future trajectory of Chinese economic transformation remains uncertain; A resilient Chinese economy can contribute to regional stability and global prosperity.

#China #EconomicSecurity #EconomicReform #ForeignInvestment #PropertySector #LocalGovernments #LandFinance #Debt #DualCirculationDevelopmentParadigm #Hightech #StateledIndustrialPolicy #BeltAndRoadInitiative

https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/risk-to-resilience-chinas-economic-security-strategy/ 

 Don't believe Biden or Trump – tariffs don't protect jobs
==========

Both Trump and Biden imposed high tariffs on imported products made in China and other countries. Free trade policies facilitated globalization, but the last two presidents promoted economic nationalism. Tariffs protect some industries but harm others, and the effects on jobs and profits are uncertain. For example, raising tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles protected US EV makers but disadvantaged other US industries. The struggle between free traders and protectionists is driven by capitalist employers' financial self-interest, not the truth about tariffs or free trade. The working class's interest in job quantity and quality can only be prioritized by moving beyond capitalism.

#BidenEvTariffs #TrickleDownEconomics #UsEconomicNationalism #UsTariffsOnChina #UschinaTradeWar

https://asiatimes.com/2024/07/dont-believe-biden-or-trump-tariffs-dont-protect-jobs/ 

 Inflation is cooling but not fast enough for the Fed
==========

The US inflation rate rose to 3.3% in May 2024, slightly lower than expected. The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady and expects only one rate cut in 2024, down from the previously predicted three cuts. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target due to higher housing and rental prices. The Fed has hiked rates more than 10 times since March 2022 to slow economic growth and rein in inflation, but job growth remained stronger than expected. The Fed is still holding fast to a 2% inflation target. The majority of officials expect benchmark interest rates to stay at about 5.3% for the rest of 2024, then fall to a bit above 4% in 2025 and reach 3.25% by 2026. The Fed is cautious and will gradually lower rates if there are no dramatic spikes in job and inflation data.

#Inflation #FederalReserve #InterestRates #UsEconomy

https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/inflation-is-cooling-but-not-fast-enough-for-the-fed/ 

 Japan in a growth-equity-small government trilemma
==========

Japan, along with the Nordic economies and the United States, has been grappling with the challenges of inequality, growth, and the role of government. The Nordic economies prioritize resisting inequality and maintaining an egalitarian society, while the United States favors a dynamic economy with low taxes and wider inequality. Japan falls in the middle, aiming for an egalitarian society with a small government. However, Japan's limited globalization and innovation have resulted in slower growth. This dilemma, referred to as the 'growth-equity-small government impossible triangle,' highlights the trade-offs faced by governments in achieving these three objectives simultaneously.

#Inequality #Growth #Government #NordicEconomies #UnitedStates

https://asiatimes.com/2024/06/japan-in-a-growth-equity-small-government-trilemma/ 

 Song has ended but melody lingers in Hong Kong
==========

The Hong Kong Court of Appeal issued an injunction against the publication of the song 'Glory to Hong Kong', leading to a response from the US government. The State Department criticized the decision, claiming it was a blow to the city's independent judiciary. However, the article argues that the US allegation is wrong and shows a lack of understanding of the law. The Court of Appeal's decision was reached through a legal analysis of the issues and was not politically directed. The article also discusses the melodious nature of the song and suggests that a more musically literate court might have banned the lyrics but not the melody. The Hong Kong government argued that both words and music should be subject to the injunction, and the Court of Appeal's judgment was based on sound legal principles. The article questions the necessity of seeking a civil injunction when there were already criminal laws in place. It also suggests that the Hong Kong government could have taken a more sober approach and ignored the song. The article concludes by referencing the song 'The song has ended but the melody lingers on' and suggests that banning a song can often increase its popularity.

#HongKong #FreedomOfSpeech #Judiciary #GloryToHongKong

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/song-has-ended-but-melody-lingers-in-hong-kong/ 

 China tech shares hint at economic green shoots
==========

China's tech companies, including Alibaba and Tencent, are reporting strong profits, suggesting that Beijing's stimulus efforts are gaining traction. While China's official GDP data shows slow growth and deflationary pressures, the surge in profits from tech giants indicates potential economic green shoots. E-commerce company Alibaba reported its biggest jump in annual growth since 2021, with net profit up 10%, while gaming giant Tencent reported a 62% surge in net profit. These positive results suggest improved confidence in the Chinese economy and efforts to address the property crisis and weak consumer prices. However, analysts caution that the broader economy's ability to turn the corner and the success of financial reforms remain uncertain.

#ChinaTechShares #ChineseEconomy #Beijing'sStimulusEfforts

https://asiatimes.com/2024/05/china-tech-shares-hint-at-economic-green-shoots/ 

 Trump plan to devalue dollar a gift to China
==========

Donald Trump's plan to devalue the dollar if he wins the presidency could benefit China by weakening the dollar's reserve currency status and stoking inflationary pressures. This strategy would align with China's goal of supplanting the dollar as the linchpin of the global financial system. The devaluation of the dollar would reduce trust in US Treasury securities, increase America's borrowing costs, and potentially trigger a currency war. It would also warp incentives for the US economy and risk the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency. Trump's previous administration considered a weaker dollar to boost American exports, but the idea faced pushback from US institutions. If Trump were to devalue the dollar, Asian central banks could potentially dump over $3 trillion worth of US Treasuries. Such a move would have significant financial consequences and could lead to a surge in borrowing costs for the US. Additionally, it would undermine the US economy's competitiveness and hinder innovation and productivity. Trump's plan to devalue the dollar could be a policy mishap of epic proportions if he wins a second term.

#DonaldTrump #DollarDevaluation #China #ReserveCurrency #Inflation #CurrencyWar

https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/trump-plan-to-devalue-dollar-a-gift-to-china/ 

 Yen hits 34-year low, defying end of negative rates
==========

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates from -0.1% to a band from zero to 0.1% on March 19, ending an era of negative interest rates. However, Japan still has the lowest interest rates in the world. The move confirms the central bank's role in supporting the US dollar. Negative rates were not a stimulus to the economy but served as a tax on commercial banks, which passed the penalty onto borrowers. The years of zero and negative rates have forced small banks to merge with bigger banks, harming the Japanese economy. The yen has weakened further since the rate rise was announced, reaching its weakest level in 34 years. The Bank of Japan continues to expand credit creation faster than the US Federal Reserve, which weakens the value of the yen against the US dollar. The central bank's actions are more influential than interest rates. The Bank of Japan's role is to prop up the US dollar and support the dominance of the dollar in the face of challenges from other countries. The yen will stay weak as long as the Bank of Japan continues to expand credit creation faster than the US Federal Reserve.

#Japan #InterestRateHike

https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/yen-hits-34-year-low-defying-end-of-negative-rates/ 

 US to convert oil rigs into floating missile defense sites
==========

The US Navy plans to convert surplus oil rigs into mobile missile defense and resupply facilities. The scheme, called the Mobile Defense/Depot Platform (MODEP) Concept, aims to address rising US vulnerability to rival missile threats in the Pacific. The converted platforms, designed for oil platforms in the Western Pacific, would serve as large floating island bases that can operate independently for over 12 months. The MODEP concept seeks to fill ballistic missile defense (BMD) capability gaps and provide an at-sea reloading solution for the US Navy. The platforms could hold up to 512 vertical launch system (VLS) cells or 100 large missile launchers. The acquisition of these surplus rigs is estimated to cost 10% of a BMD version. However, there are concerns about the high cost, vulnerability to missile attacks, and effectiveness compared to conventional sealift capabilities. The vulnerability of oil and gas platforms raises further questions about the military and economic sense of converting them into BMD-capable assets.

#UsNavy #MissileDefense #OilRigs #Pacific #China

https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/us-to-convert-oil-rigs-into-floating-missile-defense-sites/ 

 The long wait for lower US interest rates
==========

Interest rates in the US are expected to stay higher for longer than previously anticipated. In late 2023, financial markets predicted that the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates six or seven times in 2024, but now they are only expecting one or two cuts. Inflation reports in January and February came in higher than expected, and the labor market has remained strong. The Fed will hold rates where they are and wait for further economic developments. There is still a chance of one or two rate reductions this year, depending on the data.

#UsInterestRates #FederalReserve #Inflation #LaborMarket

https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/the-long-wait-for-lower-us-interest-rates/ 

 Who's to challenge Silicon Valley, Shenzhen in AI?
==========

The article discusses the concentration of AI-based technological advancements in specific regions such as Silicon Valley, Shenzhen, and the Toronto-Waterloo Corridor. These regions are home to leading global tech companies and have vibrant tech ecosystems. The integration of AI-based technologies into various industries has led to increased efficiency, innovation, and economic growth. The article highlights the importance of attracting the 'creative class' to these regions, as they possess the ability to create new ideas, technologies, and industries that can improve regional economies. The use of AI-based technologies in creative regions enhances the impact of creative capital, knowledge, and skills on the production of goods. The article also emphasizes the long-term economic growth benefits of investing in AI-based technology and skills. It states that even small initial differences in savings rates and investments in AI can lead to significant gaps in economic output and skills per creative individual over time. The article suggests that regions that actively support the development of AI technologies are likely to witness a positive relationship between workforce transformation and economic growth. However, it also warns that the concentration of AI activity in certain regions can create disparities between coastal regions and the American heartland. The article is written by Amitrajeet A. Batabyal, a distinguished professor of economics at the Rochester Institute of Technology.

#Ai #SiliconValley #Shenzhen #Technology #EconomicGrowth

https://asiatimes.com/2024/04/whos-to-challenge-silicon-valley-shenzhen-in-ai/ 

 Trump or Biden, US foreign policy endangers the world
==========

US foreign policy has unleashed violence and instability globally, regardless of who is president. The US launched the 'war on terror' in 2001, invaded Afghanistan and Iraq, causing millions of deaths and destabilizing the Middle East. The under-regulated US economy caused the global financial crisis in 2007-2008. The US and its NATO allies intervened in Libya, collapsing the state and creating more refugees. The US tried to consolidate its dominance in Europe by expanding NATO, leading to tensions with Russia. The Biden administration has continued many of Trump's foreign policy initiatives, including a technological and political war against China. Both Trump and Biden aim for permanent American global domination, using economic and military coercion. A second Trump presidency may convince US allies to reconsider their relations with the US and could herald the start of a multipolar world order.

#UsForeignPolicy #GlobalInstability #WarOnTerror #MiddleEast #GlobalFinancialCrisis #Nato #RussiaukraineWar #China #Israel #BidenAdministration #TrumpPresidency #MultipolarWorldOrder

https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/trump-or-biden-us-foreign-policy-endangers-the-world/ 

 Firmer, less peaceful language on Taiwan reunification
==========

Chinese Premier Li drops use of 'peaceful reunification' in NPC speech, underlining a trend toward firmer language toward Taiwan. The rhetoric of peaceful reunification has been gradually replaced with language that is more assertive in advancing the cause of reunification. Premier Li Qiang dropped mention of 'peaceful reunification' in his government report, emphasizing that China wants to 'be firm' in reunifying with Taiwan. This shift in language reflects China's focus on rejuvenation and the restoration of China's leading position. Reunification is seen as an extension of the 'Chinese Dream' and failure to hold Taiwan is seen as a part of China's trauma-based nationalism. The decline in the use of 'peaceful reunification' also reflects the realization that Taiwan has moved farther from mainland China's control. Beijing is likely to employ more threats and less diplomacy as Taiwan becomes less interconnected and dependent on the mainland. China's defense spending has increased by 7.2% for 2024, amid opposition to separatist activities promoting Taiwanese independence. The removal of the language of peaceful reunification is symbolic of a new, more dangerous and volatile era.

#ChinaInvasionOfTaiwan #China-taiwanWar #TaiwanElection2024 #TaiwanNewSouthboundPolicy #TaiwanPeacefulReunification

https://asiatimes.com/2024/03/firmer-less-peaceful-language-on-taiwan-reunification/ 

 So-called China deflation is good news for profits
==========

The article discusses the misconception that China's economy is collapsing and highlights the positive impact of falling producer prices and rising consumer prices on corporate profits. The 0.8% drop in China's consumer price index in January was largely due to a 17% drop in pork prices, while core consumer prices rose by 0.4%. Falling producer prices and rising consumer prices have historically boosted industrial profits in China. The article also mentions that falling auto prices and housing prices have their own implications, benefiting consumers and young families respectively. Overall, the article argues that the Western media's interpretation of China's economic reports is biased and fails to consider the nuances of price behavior.

#China #Deflation #Economy #Prices #ConsumerPriceIndex #ProducerPriceIndex #CoreCpi #Ppi #IndustrialProfits

https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/so-called-china-deflation-is-good-news-for-profits/ 

 Black swan turns white on US debt default probability
==========

Nassim Nicholas Taleb warns of a coming US debt spiral as the US debt tops $34 trillion and lawmakers gamble with Washington's last AAA credit rating. Moody's Investors Service warned it might downgrade America's credit rating. The US Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects deficits jumping to $2.6 trillion in 2034 from $1.6 trillion this year. The political climate in the US leaves little reason for hope that lawmakers can head off catastrophe. The dominance of the US dollar as a reserve currency may be nearing its end. The dollar's share of global reserves fell at a rate 10 times the normal speed over the last 20 years. The US commercial property market is facing renewed contagion fears. Small US banks are facing acute problems due to their exposure to the troubled commercial real estate sector. Nassim Nicholas Taleb warns that the risks facing the US are about to intensify.

#UsDebt #DebtDefault #CreditRating #Deficit #UsDollar #ReserveCurrency #CommercialPropertyMarket

https://asiatimes.com/2024/02/black-swan-turns-white-on-us-debt-default-probability/