For the week ending Friday 5, 🔥KEY EVENTS🔥 are:
- US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November on Monday
- US Job Openings for October on Tuesday
- US ISM Services PMI on Wednesday
- US nonfarm payrolls report for November on Friday
- ~10 Fed Speeches 👇
https://www.globalmarketsinvestor.xyz/p/s-and-p-500-hit-its-53rd-all-time
🚨S&P 500 HIT ITS 53RD ALL-TIME HIGH THIS YEAR🚨
Semiconductor sector stocks are struggling.
NVIDIA dropped ~10% from its peak.
Gold and silver tumbled
The market sentiment has never been so euphoric.
Read the market recap for the week 48/2024. 👇
https://www.globalmarketsinvestor.xyz/p/s-and-p-500-hit-its-53rd-all-time
‼️ASSET MANAGERS ARE ALL IN ON US STOCKS‼️
Asset managers net positioning hit near a RECORD 98% meaning they are almost fully invested.
Such extremes have only been seen a couple of times before.
US stock market optimism is through the roof.
What is going to happen next?
https://m.primal.net/MlgL.jpg
🔥Bitcoin rally has been truly remarkable:
#Crypto fund flows just posted ~$14 billion of inflows over the last 8 weeks, the most on record.
This is even higher than in January after the Bitcoin ETFs launch.
Meanwhile, #Bitcoin prices have skyrocketed 130% year-to-date.
https://m.primal.net/MlgK.png
⁉️WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH EUROPEAN GAS PRICES⁉️
Traders expect European gas prices to be much higher in 2025 summer than in 2025-2026 winter, the biggest difference EVER.
This comes as Europe will likely have a hard time restocking its gas storage after a heavy (expected) winter
https://m.primal.net/MlgJ.png
🚨US HOMEBUYER SENTIMENT HAS NEVER BEEN WORSE🚨
More than 80% of Americans believe it is a bad time to buy a house, near a record.
Over the last 4 years, the percentage has soared THREEFOLD.
This comes as mortgage rates rose to nearly ~7% while home prices are at record highs.
https://m.primal.net/MlgH.jpg
⚠️This is what many still do not understand:
The rate of US inflation (blue) is falling but the cost of living is still rising and it will continue.
CPI inflation year-over-year rate fell from ~9% in 2022 to 2.6% currently.
However, prices have risen by 22% since Jan 2020.
https://m.primal.net/MlXa.jpg
🚨Bloody hell:
The delinquency rate on US commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) for offices SURGED to 10.7%, the highest in 11 YEARS.
Office CMBS delinquencies have risen even faster than during the Great Financial Crisis.
Commercial real estate crisis is getting worse.
https://m.primal.net/MlXY.jpg
⚠️This chart is absolutely crazy:
US stock prices relative to European equities have skyrocketed to 3.6x, the most on record.
This is 3 TIMES more than the long-term average of 1.2x.
Over the last 15 years, we have seen the biggest outperformance of US stocks in modern history..
https://m.primal.net/MlXW.png
‼️HOLY COW‼️
US Leveraged ETF Assets Under Management hit ~$120 BILLION in November, a record.
Assets have DOUBLED since 2022 as market speculation has skyrocketed
To put this into perspective, before the 2022 bear market began assets hit ~$80 billion👇
https://www.globalmarketsinvestor.xyz/p/chart-of-the-week-us-leveraged-etfs
⚠️S&P 500 HIT ITS 53RD ALL-TIME HIGH THIS YEAR AS THIN LIQUIDITY WEEK CONCLUDES⚠️
Semiconductor sector seems to be struggling.
Performance this week:
S&P 500 +1.1%
Nasdaq +1.1%
Russell 2000 +1.1%
Dow Jones +1.4%
Bitcoin +0.2%
Bank Index +0.5%
VIX -11% front mth futures VIX -7%
Gold -1.9%
Silver -2.1%
WTI Crude Oil -4.4%
https://m.primal.net/Mkdi.jpg
⚠️INVESTORS HAVE RARELY BEEN SO COMPLACENT IN THE PAST⚠️
The difference between high-risk (junk) US corporate bond yields and US Government bonds fell to the lowest level in 18 years.
Investors are very confident about the credit market and ignore potential market risks.
https://m.primal.net/Mkdg.png
🚨FED CUMULATIVE OPERATING LOSSES HIT $210 BILLION🚨
Fed reported a $19.9B operating loss in Q3 2024, marking the 8th straight quarter of losses.
Cumulative losses reached $210B over the last 2 years.
It will take a few years until the Fed unwinds it and gets back to breakeven
https://m.primal.net/Mkdc.jpg
‼️HOLY COW‼️
US Leveraged ETF Assets Under Management hit ~$120 BILLION in November, a record.
Assets have DOUBLED since 2022 as market speculation has skyrocketed.
To put this into perspective, before the 2022 bear market began assets hit ~$80 billion.
What could go wrong?
https://m.primal.net/Mkdb.jpg
⚠️US SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS ARE STRUGGLING⚠️
The US semiconductor index is down ~17% from its July peak and looks like it will be testing its big trendline.
Even NVIDIA has been struggling in recent days and is down ~10% from its last week's peak following its mixed guidance.
https://m.primal.net/MkdZ.jpg
This is pretty remarkable:
The S&P 500 has not experienced even a ONE correction of 10%+ this year.
Over the last 70 years, there was an average of one 10% correction per year with some no-decline streaks as in 1991-1995.
Most recently, we had 10%+ drops in 2020, 2022 and 2023..
https://m.primal.net/MkdX.png
⁉️WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH THE EUROPEAN STOCK MARKET⁉️
S&P 500 is on track for the best outperformance of European stocks in 48 YEARS.
US equities returned 26% year-to-date while the Euro Stoxx 600 index a mere 6%.
Looks like trillions of stimulus work pretty well for US stocks.
https://m.primal.net/MkdW.png
⚠️This is wild:
The top 10 S&P 500 stocks P/E surged to 30x.
There were only two periods when the top 10 was more expensive:
1) The 1999-2000 Dot-Com Bubble
2) 2020-2021 pandemic period, before the 2022 bear market
By comparison, the S&P 500 excluding the top 10 P/E is 19x.
https://m.primal.net/MkdO.jpg
⁉️CALM BEFORE THE STORM OR A NEW TREND⁉️
Volatility Index VIX has averaged 15.5pts thus far in 2024, the lowest in 5 YEARS.
This is despite spiking to over 65pts in early August due to the Yen carry trade unwind fears.
This comes at a time when almost everyone is LONG stocks.
https://m.primal.net/MkdM.png
⚠️US PERSONAL SAVINGS HAVE BEEN REVISED DOWN BY A MASSIVE $140 BILLION FOR 2024⚠️
The savings rate for August and September were revised down to 4.1% and 4.4% from 4.6 https://m.primal.net/MkTP.png % and 4.8% initially reported in October.
6 months were revised down in total.
What is happening here?
⚠️TOUGH TIMES FOR STOCKS AHEAD⚠️
S&P 500 forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio rose to the highest level since the 2020 pandemic SPIKE.
Stocks are even more expensive than b https://m.primal.net/MkTM.jpg efore the 2022 bear market.
They are actually the 2nd-most expensive since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble.
🚨FED DOES NOT WANT TO SEE IT🚨
US PCE inflation (excl. food and energy) bounced to 2.8% in October, the highest level in 7 months.
The 3-month annualized metric has also bounced and has been rising for half a year. https://m.primal.net/MkTL.jpg
All inflation metrics CPI, PPI and PCE recently surged.
⁉️ARE US LAYOFFS SET TO ACCELERATE⁉️
US residential units under construction dropped by 17.3% on a 6-month annualized rate, the most since the post-Financial Crisis recovery.
In the past, when such a drop https://m.primal.net/MkTJ.jpg occurred residential construction employment plummeted as well.
⚠️US STOCK MARKET HAS NEVER BEEN BIGGER⚠️
The US accounts for 74% of the MSCI world market capitalization, a new all-time high.
This is 3 times more than Europe and Japan COMBINED.
https://m.primal.net/MkTI.jpg
To put this into perspective, Japan's share was 45% in the 1980s before its market bubble burst.
‼️US STOCK OPTIONS VOLUME HAS RARELY BEEN HIGHER‼️
US stock options volume hit nearly 70 million contracts on average a day in November, the second-highest on record.
Trading activity has DOUBLED over the last two years.
https://m.primal.net/MkTH.jpg
As markets rallied everyone wants to be involved.
Crazy
⚠️US LABOR MARKET IS DETERIORATING⚠️
The number of Americans receiving jobless benefits in the US jumped to 1.91 million, the highest in over 3 YEARS.
Continuing jobless claims have risen by over 500,000 in the last two years and are above 2018 and 2019 levels.
Concerning. https://m.primal.net/MkTE.pnghttps://m.primal.net/MkTE.png
‼️GERMAN BUSINESS CONFIDENCE IS AT CRISIS LEVELS‼️
Current economic conditions assessment of investors in Germany FELL to -91.4, in line with the 2020 CRISIS and the Great Financial Crisis.
Investor confidence has been negative for 36 months STRAIGHT.
Germany is in a recession https://m.primal.net/MkTB.png
⁉️IS FRANCE FALLING INTO A CRISIS⁉️
The difference between the 10-year French government bonds and the German equivalent jumped to the highest since the European Debt Crisis.
French bond yields also matched Greek debt for the first time in history.
At the same time, the CAC 40, the main stock index in France is DOWN 4% year-to-date.
Investors are worried that a budget for next year will not pass and the government will not remain in power.
At the same time, France's economic outlook is more than bleak. https://m.primal.net/MkTA.png
🚨INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS HAVE NEVER BEEN MORE BULLISH🚨
Asset managers, leveraged funds and other investors net LONG positioning in the S&P 500 exceeded 240,000 contracts, the most on record.
This is DOUBLE the amount seen in 2021 before the bear market started.
Euphoria is an understatement.
https://m.primal.net/MkSy.jpg
Oddbean new post about login | logout
Notes by globalmarketsinvestor | export