Stocks are historically and dangerously expensive. The chart below shows the spread between 10-year Treasury yield and the earnings yield on the S&P 500. The earnings yield is the inverse of the P/E ratio. You calculate it by dividing total earnings of the companies in the index by the total value of the index.
Put another way, for every $100 you invest in the index, the companies in it are going to generate $3.29 in earnings at these levels. Historically, the average earnings yield is 4.69% (or $4.29 in earnings for every $100 invested). And right now, the yield on the ‘risk free’ 10-year US Treasury note is 4.41%. What does that mean?
It means the equity risk premium–the extra return you’re supposed to get above the ‘risk free’ rate for buying more volatile stocks–is actually NEGATIVE. You’re not getting any extra return for the risk you take in stocks.
As you can see from the chart, there was a big divergence between the two yields in 2000. But back then the 10-year yield was 6.68% in January of 2000. The earnings yield on the S&P 500 hit a low of 2.17% in December of 2021. My point?
Yes, stocks could get even MORE expensive from here. But for stocks to go higher, it’s going to take one of two things. First, higher prices, which is just simple ‘multiple expansion’ and fear of missing out (FOMO). Or two, higher earnings.
https://image.nostr.build/e5c58680477fd9c4f0db71777b91d3bd540f99bde6b636867b39e8a67f6c0ec0.jpg
Bonner Research
This just happened. Warren Buffett just YOLO'd into $1 billion of MicroStrategy (MSTR) bonds!Who would've thought the Oracle of Omaha would seek ₿itcoin exposure this way? This is just the start! And let's not forget, even the most conservative players, like insurance companies, are jumping on this bandwagon. FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) is real! From InvestAnswers https://image.nostr.build/4685e7cdc84d2695fb29983df6d86992f7e4897a7faeeceb5d4c814de22e6485.jpg
I am working on verifying the source. I am getting mixed signals now and the info could be a mistake or interpreted wrong. I will let you know as soon as I figure this out.
Even the source I got this info from can't verify the info so at this point I am considering this fake news. If something changes I will let you know. Sorry for the confusion.
Even the source I got this info from can't verify the info so at this point I am considering this fake news. If something changes I will let you know. Sorry for the confusion.
Even the source I got this info from can't verify the info so at this point I am considering this fake news. If something changes I will let you know. Sorry for the confusion.
Yes. A metric that denominated against fiat currencies would be great. The most common measurement is ₿TC denominated against alt coins and stablecoins together. That is at 58.16%.
Yes. I find Nostr to be helpful in regards to BTC info. As the adoption of BTC goes up, so to will the adoption of nostr. There are many nostr folks who think that nostr needs to get more non BTC folks onto the protocol. I disagree. IMO, Nostr is a BTC only protocol and they will come at the same time they adopt BTC. Gradually, then suddenly.
I spent many years on the Big Island, down south in Kealakekua Bay. I surfed until I couldn't walk, day after day after day. Enjoy your Hawaiian goddess experience.
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