The Profitable Alternative to Selling Your Bitcoin | https://dantoshi.com/AlternativeToSellingBTC.html

Dont pay capital gains tax or interest!

Leverage your Bitcoin instead.

Author: Dan, Posted:9/21/24, Updated:9/24/24


It is widely understood that selling Bitcoin can result in a potential loss of value for several reasons. First, depending on the timing and jurisdiction of the sale, you may be required to pay long term capital gains taxes (10-20% in the USA) if your holdings have appreciated. Short term capital gains taxes can be substantially higher. Second, once converted into fiat currency, the value that was previously stored in Bitcoin becomes susceptible to inflation (monetary debasement, ranges between 2-7% per annum in USA). Lastly, the opportunity cost of not holding Bitcoin can be substantial. Bitcoin tends to make its most significant gains in short bursts, and missing these critical periods can result in missed financial opportunities.

That said, there are times when accessing the value stored in Bitcoin becomes necessary, whether for personal expenses or other needs. Rather than selling your Bitcoin and exposing your stored value to the abovce risks, a likley more efficient approach is to borrow against your Bitcoin by using it as collateral for a USD loan. Companies like Unchained Capital and Ledn offer such services. While the interest rates may initially seem high, it is important to note that, assuming Bitcoin continues to grow at or near its historical compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 55%, you can potentially roll over the debt continually. This strategy allows you to retain your Bitcoin exposure while still accessing liquidity. Even if you do not roll the debt over continually, delaying payment by a year can lead to huge cost savings due to the inflationary discount and asset growth.

Here is an image you can view containing a proof of concept: https://image.nostr.build/4aa1ba11061e4fd5113d817b8068d924021ebe9f5bd518ac2d5c1323f12cf1ac.jpg
 

 One of the Keys to Wealth | https://dantoshi.com/AKeytoWealth.html

What about a career that "pays you twice"?

Build an asset while you work.

Author: Dan, Posted:9/13/24, Updated:9/14/24


Many individuals, often without fully understanding the alternatives, pursue careers that offer little opportunity for asset creation alongside their regular wages. Common examples include roles such as a warehouse package handler, a hotel restaurant cook, or even an over-the-road truck driver. In these jobs, employees are compensated strictly for the hours worked, with no ongoing accumulation or value derived from those hours once they have been paid.

A more lucrative approach, by contrast, often involves creating assets that grow in value over time. Consider the case of an insurance salesperson who earns commissions per policy sold and builds a book of business that serves as a valuable asset. As their customer base expands, they earn recurring income from renewals. Similarly, a software engineer may earn a salary, but also receive company stock—a form of equity that typically appreciates in value over time. Even a self-employed pool maintenance professional gets compensated twice: once for their ongoing services, and again as the value of their pool route increases, turning it into a saleable asset.

While traditional wages tend to be consumed by everyday expenses, asset-based income has the potential to grow and provide long-term financial security. It’s important to note that there is nothing inherently wrong with jobs that pay solely for time worked—they play a crucial role in the economy and create significant value for society. However, this perspective aims to make readers more conscious of the choices available. Ultimately, as long as you find fulfillment and are contributing value, you’re on a good path. 

 https://dantoshi.com/PredictionMarketArbitrage.html

Profit from Prediction Market Arbitrage

Discover risk-free opportunities through prediction markets.

Capitalize on market inefficiencies.

Author: Dan, Posted:11/5/24, Updated:11/5/24



Prediction markets present a unique opportunity for investors to capitalize on pricing discrepancies through arbitrage. In this example, we’ll explore an arbitrage strategy across three major prediction markets—Robinhood, Polymarket, and PredictIt—on potential outcomes for "Trump" vs. "Harris." By carefully distributing capital based on each option’s best available price, you can lock in a risk-free return, regardless of the actual outcome.

To find the arbitrage opportunity, we first identify the best price for each outcome across markets. This is done by looking for the lowest cost for each outcome, allowing us to calculate the implied probability of each outcome based on market price.

For Trump: the best price is $0.530 on PredictIt.
For Harris: the best price is $0.403 on Polymarket.
We calculate the implied probabilities for each candidate:
Trump's Implied Probability = 1 / 0.530 ≈ 53.0%
Harris's Implied Probability = 1 / 0.403 ≈ 40.3%
Combined Implied Probability = Trump’s Implied Probability + Harris’s Implied Probability = 53.0% + 40.3% = 93.3% (0.933). Since this sum is less than 1 (100%), it indicates an arbitrage opportunity.
Next, we determine how to allocate a total investment of $10,000 across the two outcomes to ensure a profit regardless of the result. This involves staking a proportion of the total investment in line with each outcome's implied probability.

Trump Stake = Total Investment × (1 - Harris's Implied Probability) = $10,000 × (1 - 0.403) ≈ $5,680
Harris Stake = Total Investment × (1 - Trump's Implied Probability) = $10,000 × (1 - 0.530) ≈ $4,319
With our stakes in place, we can calculate the guaranteed profit from this arbitrage opportunity.

Total Payout (if Trump Wins) = Trump Stake / Trump’s Best Price = $5,680 / 0.530 ≈ $10,679
Total Payout (if Harris Wins) = Harris Stake / Harris’s Best Price = $4,319 / 0.403 ≈ $10,707
Regardless of the outcome, we achieve a total payout greater than the initial investment of $10,000. The profit is calculated as:
Profit = Total Payout - Total Investment
R.O.I. = Profit / Total Investment × 100
For example, if Trump wins: Profit = $10,679 - $10,000 = $679, and R.O.I. ≈ 6.79%
This approach enables investors to generate profit by exploiting market inefficiencies in prediction markets without relying on the outcome. Arbitrage strategies like this can offer risk-free returns, allowing you to benefit from combined implied probability sums below 1.



Here is an image containing the Prediction Market Arbitrage Calculator:

https://image.nostr.build/0b1f25d5c6ee479bd1d390055df501c75a4761530a37e97fb8cc9deb21737910.jpg