The Fed dual mandate
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The Federal Reserve (the Fed) has a dual mandate to maximize employment and maintain stable prices; the Fed aims to avoid stagflation, where high inflation and unemployment coexist; in 2023, US consumer resilience surprised economists despite aggressive interest rate hikes; the Fed is expected to cut rates in its September 17-18 meeting as inflation trends downward; the unemployment rate is currently at 4.3%, its highest in over two years, up from 3.4% less than a year ago; the Sahm rule indicates a recession may be underway with rising unemployment; Intel has cut 15% of its workforce due to disappointing revenue; consumer spending is cautious, impacting economic growth; fears of a recession could lead to actual economic downturn; volatility is expected in the markets ahead of the Fed meeting.

#FederalReserve #Economy #Inflation #Employment #InterestRates #Recession #SahmRule #ConsumerSpending #MarketVolatility #Intel

https://www.caymancompass.com/2024/08/30/the-fed-dual-mandate/ 

 Marketwatch: Mid-year economic insights
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The article discusses the current state of the US economy and its impact on global markets. It highlights the effects of the Federal Reserve's pause in raising interest rates, the transmission of US monetary policy to other major economies, and the potential for a soft landing or interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The article also mentions the weakening US employment market, signs of stress in the real estate market, and rising delinquency rates for auto loans and credit cards. It predicts that the US will likely lower interest rates soon and discusses the potential impact of the US election and a negotiated end to the war in Ukraine on the global economy. The article concludes by discussing the potential impact on the Cayman Islands, including weaker tourism but lower costs, relief for homeowners with lower borrowing costs, and the potential for resumed development projects and falling electricity and food prices. The author expresses optimism for consumers and companies in 2025 but acknowledges the challenge for investors in navigating the economic cycle.

#UsEconomy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #EmploymentMarket #RealEstateMarket #DelinquencyRates #UsElection #UkraineWar #CaymanIslands

https://www.caymancompass.com/2024/07/19/marketwatch-mid-year-economic-insights/