Atlanta Fed Business Inflation expectations tick up to 2.4% in July
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The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation expectations for July ticked up to 2.4%, compared to 2.3% in June. Firms' unit sales levels decreased to about 8.9% below normal.

#AtlantaFed #BusinessInflation #EconomicExpectations

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4125059-atlanta-fed-business-inflation-expectations-tick-up-to-24-in-july


U.S. industrial production grows more than expected in June
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U.S. industrial production grew by 0.6% in June, surpassing the consensus estimate of 0.3% and the May figure of 0.9%. Manufacturing production increased by 0.4%, beating the expected 0.2% and the revised May figure of 1.0%. Capacity utilization reached 78.8%, higher than the expected 78.5% and the revised May figure of 78.3%. The index for consumer goods rose by 1%, driven by a 2.7% increase in the energy index and a 1.7% rise in automotive product output. Nondurable manufacturing saw a 0.8% increase, with all industry groups except plastics and rubber products experiencing gains. The largest climb was seen in the output of printing and support, at 2.6%.

#UsIndustrialProduction #ManufacturingProduction #CapacityUtilization #ConsumerGoods #NondurableManufacturing

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4125010-us-industrial-production-grows-more-than-expected-in-june


Housing starts and permits bounce back in June
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Housing starts in June increased by 3.0% to 1.353M, surpassing the consensus estimate of 1.305M. Single-family starts were at a rate of 980K, 2.2% lower than the revised May figure of 1.002M. Building permits rose 3.4% to 1.446M, exceeding the consensus estimate of 1.395M. Single-family authorizations were at a rate of 934K, down 2.3% from the revised May figure. Privately owned housing completions were at a rate of 1.710M, 10.1% higher than the revised May estimate of 1.553M. Single-family housing completions were at a rate of 1.037M, 1.8% higher than the revised May rate of 1.019M.

#HousingStarts #BuildingPermits #RealEstate #UsEconomy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124961-housing-starts-and-permits-bounce-back-in-june


JPMorgan chief calls for "patience" with Fed's next interest rate move
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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has called on the U.S. Federal Reserve to exercise patience with its next interest rate move to account for a potential rise in inflation. Dimon stated that there are several reasons why inflation could rise again in the future, including increasing government spending, the re-militarization of the world, the extraordinary investments in the green economy, and the restructuring of trade. The Fed aggressively hiked interest rates from near zero to 5.25%-5.50% over 2022 and 2023, and the federal funds rate target range has stayed at that level for almost a year. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stated that the central bank will require additional favorable data to bolster confidence that inflation is on a sustainable path toward its 2% goal. The upcoming open market committee meeting, scheduled for July 30-31, is expected to maintain the policy rate at 5.25-5.5%.

#JpmorganChase #JamieDimon #UsFederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124887-jp-morgan-chief-calls-for-patience-with-feds-next-interest-rate-move


Epam Systems' stock rises after Jefferies upgrade to Buy on AI boost
==========

Epam Systems' stock jumped after Jefferies upgraded the shares to Buy from Hold, citing AI as a major catalyst for the company. The firm also raised the price target to $237 from $202. The analysts believe Epam is well-positioned to capitalize on AI and will be one of the top beneficiaries of generative AI. They expect Gen-AI to contribute an incremental +500-1,000 bps to annual organic growth for the company three-to-five years from now. However, meaningful revenue boost from Gen-AI is not expected until at least the second half of 2025. Jefferies also noted signs that demand for IT services may be troughing and that demand is unlikely to meaningfully decline from current levels. Epam Systems has a rating at Seeking Alpha's Quant Rating system and the average Wall Street analysts' rating is .

#EpamSystems #Jefferies #Ai #StockMarket

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124634-epam-systems-rises-after-jefferies-upgrade-to-buy-on-ai-boost


U.S. export prices fall more than forecast in June; import prices stall
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U.S. export prices fell 0.5% in June, exceeding the expected 0.1% decrease and marking the first one-month decrease since December of last year. Lower prices for non-agricultural exports offset higher agricultural prices. Import prices remained unchanged at 0.0%, below the consensus of +0.2%. Lower import fuel prices offset higher non-fuel prices, with import fuel prices experiencing a 1.0% decrease in June, the first drop since December 2023. The decrease was led by lower prices for both petroleum and natural gas.

#UsExportPrices #ImportPrices #BureauOfLaborStatistics

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124561-us-export-prices-fall-more-than-forecast-in-june-import-prices-stall


Fed gets added confidence that inflation is cooling in Q2, Fed's Powell says
==========

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. economy has performed remarkably well over the last couple of years. He noted that the labor market is no longer tighter than it was at the end of 2019. Inflation data in Q2 has added to the Fed officials' confidence, although Powell did not indicate that it is sufficient to loosen policy. Powell also commented on the shooting at the Trump rally, calling it a sad day for the U.S. He mentioned that the actions taken by the Fed in response to the pandemic in 2020 will stand up, but the question of inflation will be debated for years. Powell stated that there is a disparity of views at every FOMC meeting. Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius outlined a rationale for the Fed cutting its benchmark rate as early as its July 30-31 meeting.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #UsEconomy #JeromePowell

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124348-fed-has-received-added-confidence-that-inflation-is-cooling-in-q2-feds-powell-says


AWS Summit highlights 'practical' cases of generative AI, Baird says
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The AWS Summit showcased 'practical' use cases of generative artificial intelligence (AI), according to investment firm Baird. Analyst Colin Sebastian believes that AI remains a key driver of competitive advantages for big tech and that generative AI will provide an additional boost to every service used by people and companies. Companies at the summit shared their use cases for generative AI, including a video game company using it for animation and creation, Fandom automating community and content reviews, and the Nasdaq reducing the time for market abuse investigations. Amazon's own use cases could allow it to absorb infrastructure capacity if AWS demand falls short of expectations.

#AwsSummit #GenerativeAi #Baird #ArtificialIntelligence #Amazon

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4124011-aws-summit-highlights-practical-cases-of-generative-ai-baird-says


CFRA sees 3 clues from Powell's Congressional testimony about the timing of rate cuts
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CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall identified three clues about the timing of rate cuts from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's Congressional testimony. The first clue is that Powell stated the U.S. economy is no longer 'overheated' and is essentially where it was before the pandemic, with a strong labor market. The second clue is that risks to inflation and employment are more balanced, indicating the Federal Open Market Committee's concern about a cooling labor market. The third clue is Powell's highlighting of further softening in the economy and the labor market, which could be a reason to cut rates. Traders in the fed funds futures market raised the likelihood of a September rate reduction to near 72% in response to Powell's testimony. Powell also mentioned that he and his colleagues want to examine more economic data before making a decision on the next policy move. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closed at record highs following Powell's comments.

#Cfra #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #RateCuts #CongressionalTestimony #Economy #Inflation #Employment #FedFundsFuturesMarket #S&p500 #NasdaqComposite

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123477-cfra-sees-3-clues-from-powells-congressional-testimony-about-the-timing-of-rate-cuts


U.S. election: The gig economy may have a big test at the ballot box (NYSE:UBER)
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Uber and Lyft traded lower after the labor-backed Drivers Demand Justice coalition filed the final batch of voter signatures needed to place its unionization push on the November ballot for Massachusetts voters. Massachusetts would be the first state in the U.S. to establish a union for ride-hailing workers. The coalition is also working on a similar effort in California. Uber, DoorDash, and Instacart have been pushing for years to define their drivers as independent contractors instead of employees. However, a $175 million settlement in Massachusetts ended the momentum, requiring Uber and Lyft to raise their minimum pay to $32.50 per hour and offer benefits and protections for drivers.

#UsElection #GigEconomy #Uber #Lyft #DriversDemandJusticeCoalition

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123322-us-election-the-gig-economy-may-have-a-big-test-at-the-ballot-box


Despite Inflation, Americans Are Still Taking Summer Vacations
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Half of Americans are planning to increase their travel budget in 2024, according to a survey of travelers, despite persistent inflation. Gasoline prices were down from 2024 peaks through June while crude oil demand remains steady. Summer travel kicked off with a bang in 2024, with record Memorial Day travel in the skies and on the roads. A record 38.4 million drivers hit the road for the unofficial start of summer, and the Transportation Security Administration's passenger travel numbers showed a record 2.9 million people passed through the nation's airports on May 24. Crude oil and gasoline prices are lower, making it cheaper to drive to a last-minute destination than it was earlier this year. Airline tickets are down compared to 2023's prices as well. Despite higher prices, Americans still want to experience those summer travel vibes, as very few people canceled their trips outright because of costs. Luxury hotels are seeing higher demand, even with their higher prices, than more affordably priced lodgings. Domestic airfare prices heading into the summer were 5.8% lower than the same time last year. Gas prices at the end of June were down from the month prior, with the national average around $3.56 a gallon. Fundamentals for the energy markets look positive, with generally strong demand and a consumer that still wants to travel. OPEC announced a plan to keep production cuts in place through 2025. Refining capacity for both gasoline and jet fuel has increased over the past year. The wild cards for energy prices will remain the possibility of refinery outages because of possible adverse weather impacts, and Chinese demand. Overall, there should be decent summer demand for energy and fuel.

#Travel #Inflation #GasolinePrices #CrudeOilDemand #AirlineTickets #LuxuryHotels #DomesticAirfare #GasPrices #EnergyMarkets #Opec #RefiningCapacity

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4703304-despite-inflation-americans-still-taking-summer-vacations


Fed's Michelle Bowman sees need for more inclusive financing for small businesses
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Federal Reserve Governor Michelle Bowman emphasized the need for more inclusive financing for small businesses during the Fed's Financial Inclusion Practices and Innovation Conference. A Fed survey revealed that many small businesses rely on personal financial resources due to limited access to credit from the financial industry. Bowman suggested that small-dollar loans offered by banks, using alternative underwriting methods, could provide safer and more affordable options for consumers. She also highlighted the importance of new and innovative products and services in promoting financial inclusion.

#FederalReserve #MichelleBowman #SmallBusinesses #FinancialInclusion #CreditAccess #AlternativeUnderwriting #BankLoans

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4123062-feds-michelle-bowman-sees-need-for-more-inclusive-financing-for-small-businesses


U.S. consumers lower their year-ahead inflation expectations: NY Fed survey
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U.S. consumers have lowered their year-ahead inflation expectations, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York's March Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median implied inflation fell by 0.2 percentage point in June to 3.0% and 2.8% at the one- and five-year-ahead horizons, respectively. However, median three-year ahead inflation expectations edged up to 2.9% from 2.8%. Median home price growth expectations also decreased to 3.0% from 3.3%. Mean unemployment expectations declined to 37.6% in June, while the mean probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months increased to 14.8%. Median expected growth in income declined to 3.0% in June, while median spending growth expectations rose to 5.1%. The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months rose to 12.3%.

#UsEconomy #Inflation #ConsumerExpectations #FederalReserveBankOfNewYork

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4122640-us-consumers-lower-their-year-ahead-inflation-expectations-ny-fed-survey


C3.ai Stock Could Be Starting Another Growth Cycle (NYSE:AI)
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C3.ai stock is down 38% from its all-time high, but it is potentially undervalued. The company has seen strong growth in its client base and subscriber revenue, with 19 different industries signing up for its Enterprise AI software. In fiscal 2024, 88% of bookings were for AI application sales and 12% were driven by the AI platform. C3.ai has signed 191 agreements in the recent quarter, including with big players like Exxon Mobil, A.P. Moller-Maersk, and General Mills. The company's partner program has also seen significant growth, with 115 partner agreements closed in FY24. Margins may have bottomed for the company, and revenue growth is outpacing the cost of revenue. C3.ai currently has no profit, but its price/sales metric is at 9.30 on a forward basis. The company's potential for growth lies in industries' use of AI in predictive maintenance. The stock has a short float of 27.63%, which could lead to a short squeeze if there is a future earnings surprise.

#C3ai #Nyse:ai #GrowthCycle #Valuation #ClientBase #SubscriberRevenue #EnterpriseAiSoftware #AiApplicationSales #AiPlatform #Agreements #PartnerProgram #Margins #RevenueGrowth #Price/salesMetric #PredictiveMaintenance #ShortSqueeze

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4702701-c3ai-could-be-starting-another-growth-cycle


June nonfarm payrolls expected to reflect a softening labor market
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The U.S. Department of Labor's nonfarm payrolls report for June is expected to show continued growth but at a slower pace. Job openings in May climbed by 272K, surpassing expectations. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that hiring has slowed down and the unemployment rate has been edging up recently. The consensus estimate for June nonfarm payrolls is a 195K increase, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4%. The average hourly earnings data is also important, with a 0.3% M/M increase and a 3.9% Y/Y increase expected. The labor force participation rate is expected to increase slightly to 62.6%. ADP's private employment figures and the Challenger's Job Cuts Report will provide further insight into the upcoming report.

#NonfarmPayrolls #LaborMarket #FederalReserve #UnemploymentRate #JobOpenings #AverageHourlyEarnings #AdpEmploymentFigures #Challenger'sJobCutsReport

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4121755-june-nonfarm-payrolls-expected-to-reflect-continued-labor-market-cooldown


Economy Hasn't Gained, Interest Rates Haven't Changed, QQQ +40% Since October
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The Invesco QQQ Trust ETF has experienced a sharp +40% price jump since October, lacking material fundamental reasons for the advance. The Big Tech market rally seems to be based on hopes for future AI efficiency gains, not dramatic business growth or lower interest rates. The author warns of a potential market correction, possibly evolving into a major bear market, due to diverging breadth participation, contracting liquidity signals, and too much debt overhanging the economy. The article discusses the performance of the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF compared to other indexes, the potential for a market correction, the overvaluation of the U.S. stock market, and the high level of U.S. debt. The author suggests holding high cash levels, diversifying into bonds and precious metals, and hedging against equity longs.

#StockMarket #MarketCorrection #InvescoQqqTrustEtf #BigTech #AiEfficiencyGains #LiquiditySignals #Debt #UsStockMarket #UsDebt

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4701783-economy-hasnt-gained-interest-rates-havent-changed-qqq-plus-40-percent-since-october


Biden, Trump go back and forth over inflation at first U.S. presidential debate
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Incumbent U.S. President Joe Biden and former leader Donald Trump sparred over the key topic of inflation at the first televised debate. Trump claimed he left Biden with an "unbelievable situation" in terms of the economy when he left office. Biden countered by saying that Trump's administration mishandled the COVID-19 pandemic, leading to an economic collapse. Biden highlighted that his administration created 15,000 new jobs and 800,000 new manufacturing jobs, but acknowledged that more needs to be done for working-class people. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, total nonfarm payroll employment was 142.6 million at the end of Trump's term and 157.2 million at the end of Biden's term. Consumer prices rose 1.4% from 2019 to 2020 and 3.4% from 2022 to 2023. Trump argued that he should have received credit for getting the country out of the COVID mess and claimed that Biden's policies created jobs for illegal immigrants and bounce-back jobs. A Syracuse University/Ipsos American Identity poll found that three in five Americans were likely to watch a Biden-Trump debate, and a Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that 22% of respondents believe the economy, unemployment, and jobs are the most important problems facing the U.S. today.

#Biden #Trump #Inflation #PresidentialDebate #Economy #Covid19 #Jobs #Poll

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4120406-biden-trump-go-back-and-forth-over-inflation-at-first-us-presidential-debate


Biden-Trump presidential debate of 2024: It's the economy, stupid?
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Joe Biden and Donald Trump will participate in a presidential debate hosted by CNN. The debate will focus on a range of topics, including immigration, foreign policy, fitness for a second term, and the economy. More than half of the U.S. adult population is expected to watch the debate. Investors will be particularly interested in discussions about the job market, taxes, the federal deficit, inflation, and the general cost of living. The S&P 500 Index rose 58% during Trump's presidency and has climbed 67% under Biden's presidency to date. Biden's job is to pivot the conversation to the two competing visions for the future and emphasize ideas of having corporations and the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes. Trump's advantage lies in voters' fondness for the pre-COVID Trump-era economy and frustration with high price levels and interest rates.

#Biden #Trump #PresidentialDebate #Economy #Investors #S&p500Index

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4119947-biden-trump-presidential-debate-of-2024-its-the-economy-stupid


U.S.'s largest banks are well positioned to weather severe recession in Fed stress test
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All 31 banks subject to the Federal Reserve's stress test this year remained above their minimum common equity tier 1 (CET1) capital requirements during a hypothetical recession. Under the hypothetical scenario, the banks would have lost almost $685B. The hypothetical recession assumes a 40% decline in commercial real estate prices, a substantial increase in office vacancies, and a 36% decline in house prices. The unemployment rate rose to 10% in the scenario.

#Banks #FederalReserve #StressTest #Recession

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4119817-uss-largest-banks-are-well-positioned-to-weather-severe-recession-in-stress-test-fed-says


Business sales uncertainty eases in June; employment uncertainty climbs
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In June, business sales uncertainty eased with sales revenue growth expectations returning to their pre-pandemic average, although firms remain more uncertain about future sales growth than before the pandemic. Sales revenue growth uncertainty over the next four quarters retreated to 3.77% from 3.82% in May. On the other hand, employment growth uncertainty advanced to 4.55% from 4.14% in the previous month.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4119658-business-sales-uncertainty-eases-in-june-employment-uncertainty-climbs


Weekly Commentary: Greatest Threat
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Ten-year Treasury yields traded at the lowest level since March. The market closed Friday pricing a 4.85% policy rate at the Fed's December meeting, implying two rate cuts. Mohamed El-Erian argues for the importance of timing rate cuts due to economic weakening. Corporate debt issuance remains exceptional, and state and local governments have joined the party. The municipal bond market has seen a record number of deals, with borrowing costs declining. The strong Services ISM report and PMI data indicate strength in the service and manufacturing sectors. However, there are signs of economic weakness, and the U.S. Bubble Economy is unbalanced. French elections are approaching, causing uncertainty in the market. Marine Le Pen's comments have comforted markets, but the spread between French and German yields has widened. The possibility of a political and debt crisis in France could have implications for the euro currency. The market is experiencing acute instability, and leveraged speculation dominates global finance. The risk of a basis trade blowout in the bond market is a significant threat. The situation in Ukraine and the war between Israel and Hezbollah are escalating. Political turmoil in France is causing concern about the country's finances and its impact on European credit markets. Taiwan is facing an unprecedented threat from China, with tensions rising across the Strait. China has defined behavior aimed at Taiwan independence as a criminal act. Overall, the market is experiencing significant instability and risks from various geopolitical and economic factors.

#TreasuryYields #RateCuts #CorporateDebtIssuance #MunicipalBondMarket #EconomicWeakness #FrenchElections #PoliticalCrisis #EuroCurrency #BasisTrade #UkraineWar #IsraelhezbollahConflict #FranceInstability #TaiwanchinaTensions

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700685-weekly-commentary-greatest-threat


Fast-fashion firm Shein may abandon London IPO - report
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Chinese fast-fashion platform Shein may abandon its initial public offering (IPO) in London due to recent criticisms and pressure from the Chinese government. The retailer has faced criticism in the UK and the US over its dependence on third-party suppliers and allegations of forced labor. Some major shareholders are reportedly asking Shein to consider buying back their shares. Shein had been preparing to file a prospectus for a £50 billion London listing this month. The company had previously considered switching its IPO from New York to London due to regulatory issues. Shein confidentially filed for an IPO in the US in November. The fast-fashion firm is facing increased competition from Pinduoduo's Temu.

#Shein #Ipo #London #ChineseGovernment #ForcedLabor #Pinduoduo

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118181-fast-fashion-firm-shein-may-abandon-london-ipo-report


Record temperatures, higher natural gas prices to lift power bills this summer
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The Energy Information Administration forecasts that the average monthly residential power bill in the U.S. will rise to $173 in June, July, and August, up 3% from a year ago. The biggest increases in electricity expenses are expected along the Pacific Ocean and in New York, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania. New Englanders can expect smaller bills than in 2023 on average, as should residents of Texas, Oklahoma, Arkansas, and Louisiana. This month is likely to be the warmest June on record, with higher air conditioning bills. U.S. natural gas prices have rebounded as inventories have been burned down, with front-month July futures ending the week at $2.71/MMBtu, up 74% from a low in late March and 5% higher than a year ago. Natural gas remains the dominant means of producing electricity in the U.S., accounting for 43% of utility-scale power generation last year.

#PowerBills #NaturalGasPrices #ElectricityExpenses #EnergyInformationAdministration

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118071-record-temperatures-higher-natural-gas-prices-to-lift-power-bills-this-summer


Ethereum ETFs imminent after amended S-1s (Cryptocurrency:ETH-USD)
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Seven financial firms, including BlackRock, Templeton, and VanEck, have amended their S-1 filings for exchange-traded funds (ETFs) linked to Ethereum. The amended filings mark a key step towards launching the first set of ETFs tied to the second-largest cryptocurrency. Franklin Templeton and VanEck have announced their ETF fees at 0.19% and 0.20%, respectively. The SEC cleared Ethereum ETFs in May in response to applications from firms including Nasdaq, NYSE, and Cboe Global Markets. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that the SEC could potentially approve the launch as early as July 2.

#Ethereum #Etfs #Cryptocurrency #Blackrock #Templeton #Vaneck #Sec

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4118152-ethereum-etfs-imminent-amended-s-1s


Making Of A DGI Stock Portfolio – The Best 15 DGI Stocks That You Can Own
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The article discusses the importance of a DGI (Dividend Growth Investing) portfolio for income investors and retirees. It outlines a simple process for selecting 15-20 individual dividend stocks for long-term growth, income, and lower volatility. The article presents a 15-stock DGI portfolio that requires little maintenance over time. The current yield is about 3%, but the yield on a cost basis is expected to grow over 5% in five years if all dividends are reinvested. The article also highlights the advantages and disadvantages of owning a DGI stock portfolio, emphasizing the simplicity and low expenses of individual stock ownership. The process of structuring a DGI portfolio involves shortlisting stocks based on dividend yield, dividend growth, payout ratio, and credit rating. The final 15-stock DGI portfolio includes companies like Verizon, JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard, Johnson & Johnson, UnitedHealth, Brown & Brown, Amcor PLC, Realty Income, Home Depot, Apple Inc., and NextEra Energy. The portfolio has a current dividend yield of 2.96% and a dividend growth rate of 10.7%. The article also mentions the risk considerations associated with investing in individual stocks and the potential impact of market fluctuations and geopolitical situations on the portfolio.

#Dgi #DividendGrowthInvesting #StockPortfolio #DividendStocks #IncomeInvesting #Retirement #DividendYield #DividendGrowth #PayoutRatio #CreditRating #RiskConsiderations

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700013-making-of-dgi-stock-portfolio-best-15-dgi-stocks


Crocs' Stock Is Still Cheap
==========

Crocs continues setting new quarterly revenue records and sustaining unparalleled profitability. The macro environment is improving for Crocs, as rising real wages across the developed world will likely boost discretionary spending. The stock is almost 40% undervalued according to valuation analysis. The upcoming quarterly earnings release is scheduled on August 6, with positive consensus sentiment. The stock has rallied by 66% YTD and is still attractively valued. The business's fair value is estimated to be $13.3 billion, almost 40% higher than the current market cap. The stock is still a 'Strong Buy'.

#Crocs #Crox #Stock #Valuation #Earnings #Revenue #Profitability #MacroEnvironment #DiscretionarySpending

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700491-crocs-stock-still-cheap


It's Prove It Time For AI Stocks
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Artificial intelligence has been a central topic in the stock market in 2024. Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple are competing for the pole position as the Most Valuable Player in the S&P 500. However, outside of these top companies, the AI narrative is not as hyped as it was last year. Investment firms are taking a more critical approach to evaluating AI business cases. Companies that can prove the integration of AI technology in their strategic business models can justify expensive valuations. The demand for power from AI factories is boosting the utilities sector and fossil fuels companies. The energy demands of AI continue to grow.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700478-its-prove-it-time-for-ai-stocks


Nike Earnings Preview: Fiscal '25 Guidance Is All That Matters
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Nike is set to report its fiscal Q4 '24 earnings on June 27th. Sell-side consensus expects $0.84 in earnings per share, $1.54 billion in operating income, and $12.85 billion in revenue. Nike has struggled since the COVID-19 pandemic, with revenue growth at +5%, operating income growth at -8%, and EPS growth at -1% since November 2021. The company's fiscal '25 guidance will be critical, as analysts expect just 1% revenue growth for both fiscal '24 and '25. Nike's stock has been basing in the high $80s, low $90s since April. The stock will clear congestion if it can trade up and through $100, with room to run until the 50-month moving average at $120-121 per share. However, concerns about the brand's obsolescence persist, and Nike's reporting of earnings without the cash flow statement is seen as outdated.

#Nike #Earnings #FiscalGuidance #StockPerformance

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700458-nike-earnings-preview-fiscal-25-guidance-all-that-matters


U.S. PMI Composite unexpectedly ticks up in flash June print
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The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite inched up to [value] in June (flash estimate), vs. 53.5 expected, from 54.5 in May. Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, stated that the early PMI data signal the fastest economic expansion for over two years in June, hinting at an encouragingly robust end to the second quarter while at the same time inflation pressures have cooled. The expansion is being supported by an ongoing recovery in manufacturing, which so far this year is enjoying its best growth spell for two years. The Manufacturing PMI was [value] vs. 51.0 consensus and 51.3 prior, while the Services PMI was [value] vs. 53.4 consensus and 54.8 prior.

#UsPmiComposite #EconomicExpansion #Manufacturing #Services #InflationPressures

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117936-us-pmi-composite-ticks-up-in-flash-june-print


SP500: Why The Next Decade Might Underwhelm Investors
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The S&P 500 index is currently overvalued, with its P/E and CAPE ratios significantly above historical averages, suggesting limited future returns and heightened risk. There are increasing signs of economic weakness, including rising unemployment, stagnating retail sales, and increasing credit card delinquencies, indicating potential recession risks. The market's recent gains are heavily reliant on a few large tech stocks like NVIDIA, Microsoft, and Amazon, which raises concerns about the sustainability of the broader market rally. The S&P 500 index has outperformed most major markets over the past decade, but valuations are mean-reversing, and future returns are expected to be less than 5%. The U.S. P/E multiple is more than two standard deviations above its 20-year average. The cyclically adjusted P/E ratio (CAPE) is close to 35x, suggesting average returns over the coming decade will be less than 5%. Retail sales are stagnating, credit card delinquencies are rising, and unemployment is trending higher, indicating potential recession risks. Retail investors and non-profit organizations have a near record-high percentage of their assets in corporate equities. The market rally is increasingly dependent on a few tech stocks, while other sectors are underperforming. The S&P 500 index has an unattractive risk/reward profile, and investors are likely to be disappointed with future returns. The article was written by a fin-tech startup leveraging machine learning technology to discover investing opportunities and generate growth-optimal portfolios.

#S&p500 #StockMarket #Investing #Valuations #EconomicWeakness #TechStocks #RecessionRisks #RetailSales #CreditCardDelinquencies #Unemployment #Risk/reward

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700303-sp500-why-next-decade-might-underwhelm-investors


Lassonde Industries to buy U.S.-based Summer Garden Food Manufacturing
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Lassonde Industries (LAS.A:CA) is set to acquire The Zidian Group, which operates Summer Garden Food Manufacturing, for $235 million. An additional amount of up to $45 million may be payable over the next three years based on financial targets. Summer Garden manufactures and markets premium sauces and condiments, with a portfolio of approximately 250 products sold through over 20,000 locations. The deal is expected to close within 30 to 45 days.

#LassondeIndustries #SummerGardenFoodManufacturing #Acquisition #SpecialtyFood #Sauces #Condiments

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117823-lassonde-industries-to-buy-us-based-summer-garden-food-manufacturing


U.S. Q1 current account widens to $237.6B
==========

The U.S. current-account deficit widened by $15.9 billion, or 7.2 percent, to $237.6 billion in the first quarter of 2024. The first-quarter deficit was 3.4 percent of current-dollar gross domestic product, up from 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The widening of the current-account deficit mostly reflected an expanded deficit on goods. Exports of goods and services to, and income received from, foreign residents increased $17.0 billion to $1.20 trillion in the first quarter. Imports of goods and services from, and income paid to, foreign residents increased $32.9 billion to $1.44 trillion.

#UsEconomy #CurrentAccount #Trade #GrossDomesticProduct

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117437-us-q4-current-account


Asia markets mixed as investors turn cautious ahead to more economic data across region
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Asia-Pacific equity markets mostly fell on Thursday as investors sought fresh market catalysts. Japanese inflation data and manufacturing and services PMI figures from across the region are slated for Friday. The mainland stocks hit two-month lows as China's central bank kept key lending rates unchanged. The latest batch of economic reports in China pointed to an uneven recovery, leading markets to seek more policy support from authorities. U.S. stock futures were mixed as trading resumed after a holiday. Investors look forward to the Bank of England's policy decision later today. US housing starts, building permits, and initial jobless claims are set to be released on Thursday, while Japanese inflation data and manufacturing and services PMI figures from across the region are slated for Friday.

#AsiaMarkets #EconomicData #Investors #EquityMarkets #JapaneseInflationData #ManufacturingPmi #ServicesPmi #China #CentralBank #PolicySupport #UsStockFutures #BankOfEngland #HousingStarts #BuildingPermits #JoblessClaims

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117326-asia-markets-mixed-as-investors-turn-cautious-ahead-to-more-economic-data-across-region


JBBB ETF: Balancing Risk Versus Reward (BATS:JBBB)
==========

The article discusses the Janus Henderson B-BBB CLO ETF (JBBB) as a lower risk investment option with a 7.8% yield. It suggests considering risk management in high-yield investments during a potential market correction. CLOs offer high yield with low risk due to structural protections, and JBBB is presented as an attractive risk-reward alternative. The author recommends holding a portion of the investment portfolio in relatively safe, lower-yielding securities. JBBB is described as a cash-like fund that offers a higher yield than most money market funds and carries relatively low risk of capital losses. The article provides an overview of JBBB, its inception date, total net assets, and portfolio characteristics. It also discusses the risks and advantages of CLOs and provides insights into the current state and outlook for senior loans and CLOs. The author concludes by recommending JBBB as a risk-adjusted, better-than-cash alternative for income investors.

#Jbbb #RiskManagement #HighyieldInvestments #Clos #CashlikeFund #Yield #MarketCorrection #Riskreward #JanusHendersonBbbbCloEtf #MoneyMarketFunds #CapitalLosses #InvestmentPortfolio #LowerRiskHoldings #MarketSentiment #Cash #LowRisk #StructuralProtections #DefaultRisk #CreditRisks #DistributionHistory #PortfolioCharacteristics #SeniorLoans #MarketOutlook #IncomeInvestors

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700064-jbbb-etf-balancing-risk-versus-reward


Truist Stock: Low Expectations And More Flexibility Create Opportunities (NYSE:TFC)
==========

Truist Financial Corporation (TFC) has faced criticism for poor execution and lagging performance, but deal integration challenges should be largely over and the insurance sale creates new options. Management has used some of the insurance sale proceeds to reposition the balance sheet, improving the securities yield and adding net interest income leverage. Truist still compares well on metrics like net interest margin, asset yield, and operating efficiency, and the bank has capital to invest in growth. Core adjusted earnings growth of around 3% and ROTCE in the low double-digits can support a fair value close to $45. Truist elected to sell its insurance brokerage operations, using the proceeds to reposition the balance sheet and freeing up capital for reinvestment. Truist's Southeastern markets have seen organic market share losses, but the bank compares well on metrics like net interest margin, asset yield, and deposit costs. Truist has opportunities to benefit from ongoing repricing in the higher-for-longer rate environment and to invest in non-banking growth opportunities. The bank's strategic direction and priorities have been a concern, but the market is undervaluing the opportunities after the sale of the insurance operations. With low single-digit core growth and meaningful share in attractive markets, Truist has appeal as a contrarian self-improvement story.

#TruistFinancialCorporation #Tfc #Stock #Financials #InsuranceSale #BalanceSheet #NetInterestIncome #EarningsGrowth #Roce #SoutheasternMarkets #OrganicMarketShare #NetInterestMargin #AssetYield #OperatingEfficiency #Repricing #NonbankingGrowth #StrategicDirection #Priorities #Contrarian #Selfimprovement

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700044-truist-low-expectations-more-flexibility-create-opportunities-rating-upgrade


TSMC Stock: Undervaluation Persists Ahead Of Q2 2024
==========

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSMC) released its Q1 2024 earnings, reporting earnings of $1.38 per share, beating estimates by 4.51%, and revenues of $18.87 billion, exceeding forecasts by 4.77%. TSMC aims to expand and innovate its manufacturing processes and holds a 61% market share, significantly ahead of competitors like Samsung (11.3%). The global semiconductor market is expected to grow at a 6.30% CAGR, reaching $736.40 billion by 2027, with foundry services growing at an 8.1% CAGR. TSMC faces risks from high capital expenditures, geopolitical tensions with China, and potential stock decline if AI chip demand decreases.

#Tsmc #StockValuation #SemiconductorMarket

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700024-tsmc-undervaluation-persists-ahead-of-q2-2024


AI And Govt Bond Yields - Onwards And Upwards?
==========

AI may have important implications for fixed income markets, particularly government bond yields. The impact of AI on interest rates and bond yields depends on the level of productivity growth and the displacement effect on jobs. The conventional view is that AI-driven productivity growth increases the demand for capital, driving real interest rates and government bond yields higher. However, caution is required in drawing inferences from past eras, such as the Goldilocks era. The period of weak productivity growth and low yields from 2007-2020 has been attributed to zero rates 'zombifying' economies and distorting the allocation of capital. The impact of AI on the labor market depends on whether the displacement effect on jobs exceeds the re-instatement effect of new jobs being created. The timing of these effects is crucial, as initial job displacement could lead to lower domestic demand and inflation, potentially forcing a recession. However, in the medium term, higher growth potential could put upward pressure on rates and yields, leading to steeper yield curves. The shape of the yield curve is influenced by factors such as debt/GDP ratios, energy prices, and demographic trends. Overall, the impact of AI on bond yields and curves is complex and subject to various structural crosscurrents.

#Ai #GovernmentBondYields #ProductivityGrowth #InterestRates #LaborMarket #YieldCurves

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4700003-ai-and-govt-bond-yields-onwards-and-upwards


Consolidation, energy transition and geopolitics among energy drivers: Jennifer Warren
==========

Jennifer Warren, founder of Concept Elemental, spoke at the Seeking Alpha Investing Summit and highlighted the major energy drivers in the current market. She mentioned that energy transition, reshuffling of supply chains, geopolitics, and consolidation are critical themes that will drive investment. Warren stated that the oil market will see stickiness in both demand and supply, and there will be significant demand for natural gas with regional volatility. Geopolitical tensions could also impact energy markets. She emphasized that markets will have more influence on the trajectory of green energy transition than government policy. Warren stressed the importance of all energy sources and innovations to meet expanding demand.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117143-consolidation-energy-transition-and-geopolitics-among-energy-drivers-jennifer-warren-at-sa-investing-summit


Fed's Logan: May CPI is welcome news, but more months of data needed to be confident
==========

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated that while May's CPI reading is positive, she requires additional months of data to be confident about inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target. Logan expressed concerns about upside risks to inflation and emphasized that the Fed has made significant progress in controlling inflation. She also mentioned that the central bank is in a good position to be patient with monetary policy. Other Fed speakers, such as Musalem and Kugler, have also commented on the need for more data to be confident about rate cuts and the progress made in inflation. Williams stated that recent data is encouraging, but 3% inflation is not the new norm.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #Cpi #MonetaryPolicy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117112-fed-logan-may-cpi-more-months-of-data-needed


Fed's Barkin: Inflation moving in right direction; shelter and services 'not quite there'
==========

Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin stated that the latest inflation reading is encouraging, but shelter and services inflation are not at the desired level. He mentioned that the overall inflation numbers are moving in the right direction. Barkin emphasized the need for sustained and broad disinflation to be more confident in reaching the 2% inflation goal. He also mentioned that the path ahead for policy is unclear due to the choppiness in data. The Fed's Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) released last year is seen as a forecast rather than a promise or commitment. Barkin suggested that one rate cut followed by a hold may be sensible.

#Inflation #FederalReserve #RichmondFederalReserve #SummaryOfEconomicProjections

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4117034-feds-barkin-inflation-shelter-services-rate-cut-outlook


Chicago Fed's Goolsbee calls May's inflation report 'very good,' but more data needed
==========

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee called May's inflation data 'very good,' but more months of softer readings will be needed before the central bank can claim victory and potentially start easing monetary policy. Goolsbee said that more reports like May's, which came in flat, will help with the Fed's overall confidence on inflation. He emphasized that more progress on inflation is needed before making any decision on a potential rate reduction. Goolsbee also mentioned that the U.S. dollar could see further strength as European countries cut borrowing costs, but a stronger dollar would impact the export-import balance as well as overall employment and inflation. He noted that credit delinquencies have been on the upswing, though not to levels that scream recession. Goolsbee said he would be open to having a discussion on changing the Fed's inflation target, but not until it's achieved.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #AustanGoolsbee

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116382-chicago-feds-goolsbee-calls-mays-inflation-report-very-good-but-more-data-needed


This is why JPM analysts are still long the U.S. dollar/Chinese yuan (USD:CNY)
==========

J.P. Morgan analysts are staying long the U.S. dollar/Chinese Yuan (USD:CNY), according to a Global Asset Allocation report. The U.S. dollar/Chinese Yuan (USD:CNY) continues to stay in the 7.25-7.27 range in recent weeks. The index is up more than 2% year-to-date, and up 0.43% from the previous month. The dividend payout pressure is expected to pick up from June and then peaking in late July. The Central Bank of the People's Republic of China expanded the quota for Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors (QDII) for the first time since the middle of last year. With the U.S. dollar/Chinese Yen (USD:CNY) tracking about 1% below rate differentials, and with geopolitical risks 'still relatively benign,' it may be also in the PBoC's interest to release some pent-up depreciation pressure now, in exchange for greater policy room for FX stability in the future. JPM's three-month call spread: K = 7.25/7.37. Spot ref 7.2663. Cost 45 basis points. Marked at 32 basis points.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116327-this-is-why-jpm-analysts-are-still-long-the-us-dollarchinese-yuan


U.S. easing cycles have not always been easy for Emerging Markets - JPM (NYSEARCA:EEM)
==========

J.P. Morgan analysts found that U.S. easing monetary cycles historically had negative effects on emerging markets (EEM), resulting in negative equity performance and only modest outperformance to U.S. equities. However, the Federal Reserve cutting rates can be a positive catalyst for emerging markets, including global growth, more possibility of countries easing policies, and less support for the U.S. dollar strength. The J.P. Morgan team forecasts U.S. growth to slow in the third and fourth quarter, with the U.S. monetary easing cycle starting in the fourth quarter. Market consensus suggests 1.4 rate cuts for 2024. Emerging markets equities can offer diversification from U.S. equities, relative growth acceleration, attractive valuation, and macro conditions challenging the U.S. dollar strength. However, U.S. easing cycles have historically resulted in negative impacts and financial accidents for emerging markets equities. Emerging markets had a small average outperformance to MSCI U.S. during Fed easing cycles, while the U.S. dollar index recorded a decline on average.

#UsEasingCycles #EmergingMarkets #JpMorgan #FederalReserve #EquityPerformance #UsEquities #UsGrowth #RateCuts #EmergingMarketsEquities #UsDollarStrength

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4116287-us-easing-cycles-have-not-always-been-easy-for-emerging-markets-jpm


Adobe: Very Compelling AI Monetization In Q2 (ADBE)
==========

Adobe reported strong Q2 earnings, beating estimates, and raising future guidance. ADBE's effective AI monetization strategy showcased strong Document Cloud growth, which will continue to accelerate. The Company's focus on integrating AI across its entire stack will drive steady double-digit compounding and operating leverage.

#Adobe #Ai #Monetization #Q2Earnings #DocumentCloud

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4699259-adobe-very-compelling-ai-monetization-in-q2-rating-upgrade


Ether ETFs likely to go live by end of summer, SEC's Gary Gensler says (ETH-USD)
==========

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Chair, Gary Gensler, stated that spot ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are likely to go live by the end of summer. On May 23, the ETFs received initial approval to be listed, and prospective issuers were instructed to submit draft S-1 registration forms by May 31. Approvals of the registration forms would enable the products to start trading in the U.S. Individual issuers are currently working through the registration process.

#EtherEtfs #Sec #GaryGensler #Ethusd

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115900-ether-etfs-likely-to-go-live-by-end-of-summer-secs-gary-gensler-says


Economy is solid, still need 'greater confidence' on inflation progress: Powell
==========

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. economy is solid, with economic activity expanding at a solid pace and consumer spending remaining solid. The labor market has become more balanced, and Powell expects the labor market strength to continue. However, the Fed has not yet received the greater confidence it needs that inflation is sustainably heading toward the Fed's 2% inflation goal. Powell mentioned that the FOMC is coming to think that interest rates won't return to pre-COVID levels. The central bank policymakers are assuming 'good but not great' inflation numbers and are taking a conservative approach in their forecasting.

#FederalReserve #JeromePowell #UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4115327-economic-is-solid-but-still-need-greater-confidence-on-inflation-progress-powell-press-conference


May CPI data, falling on same day as Fed decision, seen cooling a bit
==========

Consumer inflation data for May is expected to cool from the previous month, but likely not enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report will be released on the same day as the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision, which has only occurred seven times since 2014. CPI is seen rising 0.1% M/M in May, easing from April's 0.3% increase. Y/Y, the inflation gauge is forecast to climb 3.4%. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.3% M/M and 3.5% Y/Y. A downside surprise to core CPI could reopen hope for a July rate cut, while an upside surprise could lead to speculation of a rate hike. The Fed will have to continue to hold borrowing costs at the current restrictive level until it gains confidence in the progress on disinflation. Another key economic report slated for release is May's Producer Price Index (PPI), which is expected to slow to +0.1% M/M. PPI generally has a strong relationship with CPI, but there has been a recent divergence. PPI rose while CPI slipped, implying a narrowing in corporate margins.

#Cpi #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #ProducerPriceIndex

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4114534-may-cpi-data-falling-on-same-day-as-fed-decision-seen-cooling-a-bit


Federal Reserve expected to hold rates, may lower rate cut expectations for 2024
==========

The Federal Reserve is expected to hold interest rates steady at its upcoming meeting, making it the seventh consecutive meeting without a change. Market watchers will be paying attention to the wording in the FOMC's policy statement, the Summary of Economic Projections, and Chairman Jerome Powell's comments at the post-decision press conference. Economists expect a change in the Fed's description of progress on inflation to 'slow' and a nod to the recent mix of activity and price data suggesting a lower risk of price re-acceleration. The data in the policymakers' Summary of Economic Projections may reveal a reduction in rate cut expectations for 2024, with economists projecting two rate cuts by the end of the year. Longer-run interest rate projections and the neutral interest rate will also be closely watched. Chair Powell is expected to emphasize patience regarding rate cuts and assure market participants that the FOMC's views of fundamentals haven't changed.

#FederalReserve #InterestRates #RateCuts #Inflation #EconomicProjections #JeromePowell

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4114171-federal-reserve-expected-to-hold-rates-may-lower-rate-cut-expectations-for-2024


U.S. natural gas inventory net change of +98 Bcf for week ended May 31 - EIA (NG1:COM)
==========

The U.S. natural gas inventory for the week ended May 31, 2024, had a net change of +98 Bcf, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is higher than the consensus estimate of +89 Bcf. The total working gas stock was 2,893 Bcf, which is 581 Bcf above the five-year average of 2,312 Bcf. Stocks were 373 Bcf higher than the previous year at the same time. The EIA's Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report provides more details.

#NaturalGas #Inventory #Eia #Energy #Storage

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4113693-us-natural-gas-inventory-net-change-of-98-bcf-for-week-ended-may-31-eia


U.S. PMI Composite final print revised up a tick from initial estimate
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The S&P Global U.S. PMI Composite came in at 54.5, revised up from the initial estimate of 54.4, indicating a significant increase from 51.3 in April. Companies increased output and new export business expanded. Services PMI was 54.8, unchanged from the initial estimate and higher than the previous month. Services employment fell for the second month in a row. The data suggest a healthy pace of expansion in the U.S. private sector. Andrew Harker, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, commented on the acceleration in the manufacturing sector and the overall expansion in the private sector. The article was written by Liz Kiesche and published on Seeking Alpha.

#UsPmiComposite #EconomicExpansion #S&pGlobal #ServicesPmi #Employment

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4113163-us-pmi-composite-final-print-revised-up-a-tick-from-initial-estimate


Inverted yield curve: Is it still a reliable recession indicator?
==========

Treasury yields have been inverted for close to two years, raising concerns about a recession. However, recent months have seen a moderation in recession calls as the US economy continues to expand and unemployment remains low. The yield curve, which has predicted every recession over the past 50 years, is being questioned for its reliability. While some believe it is no longer a reliable indicator, others point to its accuracy in predicting past recessions. The last two instances of yield curve inversion occurred in August 2019, ahead of the pandemic-induced recession, and in March 2022, just before a recession emerged in the second quarter of that year. The possibility of a recession happening eventually is still being debated.

#YieldCurve #Recession #UsEconomy #TreasuryYields

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4112244-inverted-yield-curve-is-it-still-a-reliable-recession-indicator


The economy has hit a "stall speed" - Rosenberg Research
==========

The U.S. economy has hit a "stall speed" and could weaken even further from here, according to David Rosenberg, founder and president of Rosenberg Research. The 1.3% growth in the U.S. economy from January through March confirms its weakness, with a risk of even more weakness in the second quarter. Rosenberg believes that if the economy continues to decelerate, a recession could occur. The catalyst for a "bullish macro view" used to be the excess pandemic-era savings, but those have already been spent. The upcoming non-farm payroll report on June 7 has been skewed by the birth-death model, with half the gains in the non-farm payrolls coming from it. However, Rosenberg does not expect the print to be negative, but rather fairly soft for the second month in a row.

#UsEconomy #EconomicGrowth #Recession #NonfarmPayroll #BirthdeathModel

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4112003-the-economy-has-hit-a-stall-speed-rosenberg-research


Chicago PMI unexpectedly falls to in May
==========

The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for May fell to 35.4, lower than the expected 40.8 and down from 37.9 in April. The unexpected decline in the PMI indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the Chicago area. The data suggests that business conditions deteriorated in May, with declines in production, new orders, and employment. This decline in the PMI is a concerning sign for the U.S. economy as it indicates a potential slowdown in manufacturing and overall economic growth.

#ChicagoPmi #EconomicActivity #BusinessConditions #Manufacturing #EconomicGrowth

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4111941-chicago-pmi-unexpectedly-falls-to-in-may


Wholesale inventories rise more than expected in April to +0.2% M/M
==========

Wholesale inventories in April rose more than expected to +0.2% M/M, reaching $896.3 billion, compared to a consensus estimate of -0.1% and a decrease of -0.4% in March. The inventories were down 1.6% from April 2023. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that the percentage change from February 2024 to March 2024 remained unchanged at -0.4%.

#WholesaleInventories #April #UsCensusBureau

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4111507-wholesale-inventories-rise-more-than-expected-in-april-to-02-mm


Auto insurance inflation set to tap on the brakes, BofA economist says
==========

Rising auto insurance premiums have been a notable driver of inflation, with motor vehicle insurance jumping 22.6% in April from a year earlier. Bank of America Securities Economist Stephen Juneau attributes this to underwriting losses in the industry, including higher vehicle prices, increased repair costs, and a higher number of accidents. However, Juneau believes that motor vehicle insurance rate growth is expected to slow as insurers return to profitability, vehicle prices stabilize, and wage growth cools. The Federal Reserve will be closely monitoring personal consumption expenditure figures to gauge inflation. P&C insurer stocks, including Allstate, Berkshire Hathaway, and Travelers, have been climbing alongside rising insurance premiums.

#AutoInsurance #Inflation #BankOfAmerica #Premiums #UnderwritingLosses #VehiclePrices #RepairCosts #Accidents #FederalReserve #PersonalConsumptionExpenditure #P&cInsurerStocks #Allstate #BerkshireHathaway #Travelers

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4110270-auto-insurance-inflation


Dodge & Cox Income Fund Q1 2024 Commentary
==========

Longer-term U.S. Treasury yields rose in Q1 2024 as investors reduced expectations for interest rate cuts amid economic strength and higher-than-expected inflation. The market now expects three Federal Reserve rate cuts this year, compared to six forecasted in January. The investment-grade corporate bond sector outperformed comparable-duration Treasuries, driving credit yield premiums tighter. The Fund trimmed several credit holdings, including AT&T, Pemex, and Ford Motor Credit, and invested the proceeds primarily in Treasuries. The Fund's diversified portfolio of Agency mortgage-backed securities ('MBS') with low prepayment risk and compelling valuations was maintained. The Fund's duration remains at 6.0 years. The market expects three federal funds rate cuts this year versus six forecasted in January. The investment-grade Corporate bond sector outperformed comparable-duration Treasuries by 0.9 percentage points. The Bloomberg U.S. Credit Index's average yield premium is near the tightest level in years. The Fund's expense ratios are 0.41% for Class I shares and 0.33% for Class X shares. Dodge & Cox believes interest rates are likely to fall over the coming years. The Fund's key contributors to relative results included credit issuer selection, overweight position in Financials, and Ginnie Mae-guaranteed Home Equity Conversion Mortgage holdings. The Fund's key detractors from relative results included overweight to Agency MBS and certain underperforming credit issuers. The top ten issuers in the Fund's portfolio include Fannie Mae, U.S. Treasury Note/Bond, Navient Student Loan Trust, Charter Communications, Petroleos Mexicanos, HSBC Holdings PLC, and JPMorgan Chase & Co. The Fund's Class X shares have an inception date of May 2, 2022. Dodge & Cox Funds are distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695655-dodge-and-cox-income-fund-q1-2024-commentary


Serious mortgage delinquencies improve to lowest since 2005: ICE
==========

Serious mortgage delinquencies, comprised of loans 90+ days past due but not in active foreclosure, improved in April to their lowest level since August 2005, according to Intercontinental Exchange's first look report released on Friday. Such delinquencies fell by 17K, or 4.0%, from March and 84K, or 16.8%, from a year before. Overall, the national delinquency rate retreated to 3.09% in April, marking a 22-basis-point improvement from the same year-ago period. The number of borrowers a single payment past due dropped by 30K to hit an 8-month low, while 60-day delinquencies slumped 6K to their lowest level in 10 months. Foreclosure starts dipped -0.8% from a month earlier, pushing the number of loans in active foreclosure to its lowest level since January 2022 â some 30% below (-84K) pre-pandemic levels. Prepayment activity advanced to its highest level since August 2023, due to a seasonal increase in home sales, even as consumers still faced affordability and refinance headwinds in the wake of elevated borrowing costs.

#MortgageDelinquencies #IntercontinentalExchange #HousingMarket

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4110260-serious-mortgage-delinquencies-improve-to-lowest-since-2005-ice


Initial jobless claims fall more than expected in past week
==========

Initial jobless claims fell by [number] for the week ended May 18 to [number], compared with 220K expected and 223K in the prior week (revised from 222K). The decline is the second in a row and underscores the resilience of the U.S. economy in a high interest-rate environment. The four-week moving average was 219,750, an increase of 1,750 from the prior week's average of 218,000, which was revised up by 250. Continuing claims increased to 1.794M from 1.786M in the previous week (revised from 1.794M). The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% for the week ended May 11, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate. The Department of Labor reported an advance number of actual initial claims under state programs on an unadjusted basis were 192,017 in the week ended May 18, a decrease of 5,663 from the prior week. Seasonal factors expected an increase of 1,114 from the previous week.

#InitialJoblessClaims #UsEconomy #UnemploymentRate #DepartmentOfLabor

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4109807-initial-jobless-claims-fall-more-than-expected-in-past-week


The 'Micro' View Of The Economy, More Relevant Than The 'Macro' View
==========

Macroeconomic data show that the U.S. economy appears strong with low inflation, low unemployment, and moderate economic growth. However, when one looks at the more 'micro' aspects of the economy, there are concerns about inflation, displacement in employment, closing companies, and weakening consumer confidence. The economy has undergone significant changes in recent years due to technological advancements, bringing concerns over the supply side of the economy and a changing social structure. Investors need to focus more on the 'micro' side of the economy than on the 'macro' aspects. There is a substantial transition going on in the U.S. economy due to technological advancements, causing major changes in the economy. Many of the problems associated with employment and business structure are predominately supply-side issues. The changing income/wealth distribution in the U.S. has meant that many American workers have not benefited from the increasing wealth the economy has produced. Investors need to take a more micro view of what is happening and where it is happening in today's dynamic, fast-changing world.

#Economy #Macroeconomics #Microeconomics #Technology #Employment #ConsumerConfidence #Supplyside #IncomeDistribution #WealthDistribution #Investing

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695169-the-micro-view-of-the-economy-more-relevant-than-the-macro-view


U.S. Economy Still On Track For Modest Pickup In Growth For Q2
==========

US economic activity is expected to post a modestly firmer increase in the second quarter, with output projected to rise 1.9%. However, there are several risk factors including negative sentiment and a slowdown in labor market growth. The US Consumer Sentiment Index weakened in May, and retail sales growth has turned sluggish. Some economists estimate recession risk is high for later this year. The real-time data still skew positive, but caution is advised when it comes to economic forecasts.

#UsEconomy #Q2Growth #EconomicForecasts

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4695039-us-economy-still-on-track-for-modest-pickup-in-growth-for-q2


Crude inventory increased by 1.8M barrels for week ended May 17 - EIA (Commodity:CL1:COM)
==========

Crude inventory increased by 1.8 million barrels for the week ended May 17, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). This is compared to a decrease of 2.5 million barrels for the previous week. The consensus estimate was a decrease of 2.4 million barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 0.2 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 1.6 million barrels for the previous week. The consensus estimate was a decrease of 1.6 million barrels. Distillates inventory increased, with no change for the previous week. The consensus estimate was a decrease of 0.1 million barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) increased by 1.0 million barrels, compared to an increase of 0.6 million barrels for the previous week.

#CrudeInventory #EnergyInformationAdministration #OilMarket

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4109359-crude-inventory-increased-by-18m-barrels-for-week-ended-may-17-eia


Asset-Based Finance: Private Credit's Key Diversifier
==========

Private capital is increasingly being used to finance consumer spending as banks lend less to consumers. This presents an opportunity for investors to boost return potential and diversify private credit portfolios. Asset-based finance, which includes the purchase, origination, or financing of assets sourced through specialist lenders, is a broad form of consumer lending that powers the real economy. It is a $6.3 trillion market and provides financing for residential and commercial property, cars, credit cards, small business loans, and more. However, asset-based finance remains underrepresented in investor portfolios due to the limited number of private credit managers capable of navigating the opportunity set. The market is expected to grow to almost $10 trillion by 2028. Asset-based finance offers diversification, a hedge against inflation, ample cushions, and additional lender protections. It also provides an appreciable yield premium. North America and Europe are the two largest and most accessible markets for asset-based finance, with North America being more mature and Europe offering varied opportunities. The article suggests that asset-based finance stands today where corporate direct lending did a decade ago and expects rapid and sustained growth in the future. This presents an opportunity for investors to increase potential return, downside protection, and overall credit allocation diversification.

#PrivateCapital #ConsumerSpending #Banks #RealEconomy #Investors #ReturnPotential #Diversification #AssetbasedFinance #SpecialtyFinance #PrivateCreditManagers #MarketGrowth #YieldPremium #NorthAmerica #Europe #CreditAllocation

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4694700-asset-based-finance-private-credits-key-diversifier


Stalled progress on inflation means more information needed before Fed cuts: Mester
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Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester says that progress on inflation has stalled in the first three months of 2024, and policymakers need more information to determine the path of inflation. Mester believes that monetary policy is restrictive and the economy has performed stronger than anticipated. The labor market has softened since the Fed's rate-hiking campaign in 2022, which is expected to put downward pressure on inflation. Mester notes that while the April CPI numbers were welcome, inflation is still too high. She expects inflation to come down but not quickly. The Fed remains open to the possibility of surprises in the economy and is prepared to hold rates higher for longer or even raise rates if necessary. Mester will contribute her projections for the federal funds rate for the last time in June before retiring. In the previous dot plot, she was at the median of three rate cuts, but she doesn't think that would be appropriate given the current strength of the economy.

#Inflation #FederalReserve #MonetaryPolicy #ClevelandFed #LorettaMester

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4108497-stalled-progress-on-inflation-means-more-information-needed-before-fed-cuts-mester


Inflation is coming down, but still not enough, Richmond Fed's Barkin says
==========

Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin stated that inflation is coming down, but it is still not enough. On the services side of the economy, companies are still trying to increase prices, while producers on the goods side are not raising prices as much. Despite the softer April CPI report, inflation is still below the Fed's 2% target. The labor market is normalizing, which is taking the edge off inflation. However, demand needs to soften further to reach the 2% inflation target. Barkin mentioned that the economy is on the right path for inflation, but it will take more time. The question is how long the Fed needs to hold rates to achieve the target.

#Inflation #RichmondFed #TomBarkin #UsEconomy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4107452-inflation-is-coming-down-but-still-not-enough-richmond-feds-barkin-says


U.S. import/export prices rise more than forecast in April
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U.S. imports increased 0.9 percent in April, exceeding consensus of 0.02 percent, after advancing 0.6 percent in March. Prices for import fuel rose 2.4 percent in April, after advancing 5.4 percent the previous month. Prices for U.S. exports increased 0.5 percent in April against consensus of 0.2%, following a 0.1 percent advance the previous month.

#UsImport/exportPrices #April #Imports #Exports #FuelPrices

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4107294-us-importexport-prices-rises-more-than-forecast-in-april


Housing starts advance less than forecast, building permits dip in April
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Housing starts increased 5.7% M/M in April to 1.360M, below the consensus forecast of 1.420M and the revised March figure of 1.287M. Single-family housing starts were at a rate of 1.031M, 0.4% below the revised March figure of 1.035M. Building permits retreated 3.0% from a month ago to 1.440M, below the expected 1.480M and the revised prior figure of 1.485M. Single-family authorizations ran at a rate of 976K, 0.8% below the revised March figure of 984K. Privately-owned housing completions in April were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.623M, up 8.6% from the revised March estimate of 1.495M and 14.6% from the April 2023 rate of 1.416M. Single-family housing completions ran at a rate of 1.092M, 15.4% above the revised March rate of 946K.

#HousingStarts #BuildingPermits #UsEconomy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4107288-housing-starts-advance-building-permits-fall-in-april


U.S. household debt rises by $184B in Q1 as financial distress worsens: NY Fed
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The overall debt accumulated by U.S. households increased by $184B, or 1.1%, to $17.69T in Q1. Credit card and auto loan delinquency rates continued to rise. Mortgage balances increased by $190B to $12.44T, and auto loan balances advanced by $9B to $1.62T. Credit card balances decreased by $14B to $1.12T, but remain 13% above the year-ago level. Delinquency rates increased to 3.2% from 3.1% in the previous quarter. 8.9% of credit card accounts and 7.9% of auto loan accounts moved into troubled status on an annualized basis. Delinquency transition rates for mortgages rose by 0.3 percentage point. Total debt levels are $3.5T above the end of 2019.

#UsHouseholdDebt #FinancialDistress #CreditCard #AutoLoan #Mortgage #DelinquencyRates

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4105939-us-household-debt-rises-by-184b-in-q1-more-borrowers-miss-payments-ny-fed


Chicago Fed President: There isn't much evidence that inflation is stalling at 3%
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Austan Dean Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that there is not much evidence that inflation is stalling at 3%. He mentioned that although inflation went up to almost 10%, longer-term expectations of inflation did not increase. Goolsbee attributed this to the 'Volcker's effect' in 1979 when former Fed Chair Paul Volcker's tightening policy caused a slowdown in the US economy. He emphasized the importance of conquering the belief that inflation will remain high. Goolsbee also highlighted that the market believes the Fed will achieve its target of 2% inflation. Despite a recent bump in inflation, there is no widespread view that inflation is taking off at this time.

#Inflation #FederalReserveBankOfChicago

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4104807-chicago-fed-pres-austan-d-goolsbee-there-isnt-much-evidence-that-inflation-is-stalling-at-3


Initial jobless claims rise more than expected in the past week
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Initial jobless claims for the week ended May 4 rose by 22K to 231K, more than the 212K expected and up from 209K in the prior week (revised from 208K). The four-week moving average was 215,000, an increase of 4,750 from the prior week's average of 210,250 (revised from 210,000). Continuing claims: 1.785M vs. 1.790M consensus and 1.768M prior (revised from 1.774M). The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2% for the week ended April 27, unchanged from the earlier week's unrevised rate, the Department of Labor. Advance number of actual initial claims under state programs on an unadjusted basis were 209,234 in the week ended May 4, an increase of 19,690 from the prior week. Seasonal factors expected a decrease of 626 from the previous week.

#InitialJoblessClaims #Unemployment #UsEconomy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4103637-initial-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected-in-past-week


Data Insight: April's jobs report was biggest disappointment in at least 2 years
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The U.S. economy added a disappointing 175K jobs in April, 68K below the consensus estimate of economists. This marked the biggest miss on the headline payroll number in at least two years. Revisions for previous months of 2024 have indicated that the original estimates for monthly employment figures were too optimistic. The revisions have cut the number of jobs added in 2024 by a net total of 124K compared to the initial estimates. The figures in the tables show the initial jobs figures as they were originally announced, compared to the consensus estimate at the time of release and the current official monthly totals after revisions.

#JobsReport #Economy #Employment #Revisions

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4099875-data-insight-april-jobs-report-biggest-disappointment-in-at-least-2-years--employment


Will U.S. Economy Stabilize in Q2 2024 After 2 Quarterly Downshifts?
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Preliminary estimates suggest the U.S. economy may stabilize in Q2 2024 after two consecutive quarters of slower growth. The median estimate for Q2 GDP growth is 1.9%, an improvement over Q1's 1.6% advance. However, there is still uncertainty due to limited data for April and the need for guesswork for May and June. Some analysts warn of rising stagflation risk, but Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell disagrees. The consumer sector remains strong, with household spending showing no signs of slowing down. However, there are concerns about slowing growth in early Q2 numbers. Overall, cautious optimism prevails.

#UsEconomy #Gdp #Q22024 #EconomicGrowth #Stagflation #ConsumerSpending

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4689408-will-us-economy-stabilize-in-q2-2024-after-2-quarterly-downshifts


U.S. economy adds fewer jobs than expected in April, unemployment ticks up
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Nonfarm payrolls rose by 175K in April, less than the 243K expected and a slower pace than the 315K notched in March. The unemployment rate edged up to 3.9% vs. 3.8% expected and 3.8% prior. Average hourly earnings increased 0.2% M/M, less than the +0.3% expected and a smaller increase than 0.3% increase in March. The labor force participation rate held at 62.7% in April. The reduced level of hiring and cooler wage growth indicate that the labor market is softening. The biggest job gains were in health care (+56K), social assistance (31K), and in transportation and warehousing (+22K).

#UsEconomy #JobMarket #Unemployment #NonfarmPayrolls #WageGrowth #LaborForceParticipationRate

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4099564-us-economy-adds-fewer-jobs-than-expected-in-april-unemployment-ticks-up


Crude inventory increased by 7.3M barrels for week ended April 26 - EIA
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Commercial crude stocks for the week ended April 26 increased by 7.3 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 6.4 million barrels for the week ended April 19. Gasoline inventory increased by 0.3 million barrels, compared to a decrease of 1.2 million barrels for the week ended April 19. Distillates inventory decreased by 0.7 million barrels, compared to an increase of 1.6 million barrels for the week ended April 19. SPR inventory increased by 0.6 million barrels, compared to an increase of 0.8 million barrels for the week ended April 19.

#CrudeInventory #Eia #Energy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4097384-crude-inventory-increased-by-73m-barrels-for-week-ended-april-26-eia


U.S. private sector employment stays strong in April: ADP Jobs Report
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U.S. private sector employment in April exceeded expectations, adding +175K jobs, according to the ADP National Employment Report. Annual pay increased 5.0% Y/Y, and job changers saw a 9.3% Y/Y increase. The information sector showed weakness with job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021. The service-providing sector added 145K jobs, led by leisure and hospitality with 56K new hires. The goods-producing sector added 47K jobs, with construction employment increasing by 35K. The average pace of hiring accelerated over the last three months, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023.

#UsEconomy #AdpJobsReport #Employment #Pay #JobChangers #ServiceprovidingSector #GoodsproducingSector #Hiring

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4097205-us-private-sector-employment-stays-strong-in-april-adp-jobs-report


Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index stays firmly in negative territory in April
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The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index remained in negative territory in April, with a reading of -14.5 compared to a consensus estimate of -11.3 and a previous reading of -14.4 in March. The Production Index improved to +4.8 from -4.1, while Capacity Utilization increased to +4.2 from -5.7. Shipments rose to +5.0 from -15.4, but New Orders declined to -5.3 from -11.8. Employment also decreased slightly to -0.1 from +1.5. Wage pressures increased in April, with the wages and benefits index reaching a seven-month high of 30.6. Price pressures, on the other hand, retreated, with the raw materials prices index falling to 11.2 from 21.1. Expectations for future manufacturing activity improved, with the future production index rising to 34.8 and the future general business activity index increasing from 1.3 to 7.9.

#DallasFedManufacturingIndex #UsEconomy

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4095524-dallas-fed-manufacturing-index-stays-firmly-in-negative-territory-in-april


U.S. CFOs' top priority is cost-cutting amid economic uncertainty, survey finds
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Finance chiefs in the U.S. have made cost-cutting their top priority amid economic uncertainty, according to a survey by U.S. Bank. The survey found that reducing costs within the finance function and across the entire business are the top two priorities for CFOs. Risk management is also climbing in importance. CFOs are prioritizing investments in technology, with artificial intelligence and data analytics being the top priorities. Layoffs are considered a near-last resort for cutting expenses. A Coupa survey revealed that while 45% of CFOs plan to invest in AI, 89% have doubts about successfully implementing an AI strategy. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy highlighted the company's focus on cost-cutting measures and the potential of AI. Meta Platforms is expected to benefit from AI's increasing engagement and advertising efficiency. Global banks such as Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, HSBC Holdings, and UBS Group have been reducing headcount in Asia wealth-related segments due to a dealmaking drought and sluggish market conditions in China.

#Cfos #Costcutting #EconomicUncertainty #Survey #Technology #ArtificialIntelligence #DataAnalytics #Layoffs #Amazon #MetaPlatforms #GlobalBanks

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4094253-us-cfos-top-priority-is-cost-cutting-amid-economic-uncertainty-survey-finds


Higher For Longer? Focus On The Balance Sheet
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Inflation is rising, and GDP growth is slowing, posing risks to the US economy. The Federal Reserve may need to choose between fighting inflation and protecting economic growth. REITs with strong balance sheets, such as Realty Income and Prologis, are well positioned to navigate the challenges of higher inflation and rates.

#Inflation #GdpGrowth #FederalReserve #Reits #BalanceSheet

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4686801-higher-for-longer-focus-on-the-balance-sheet


Citi still believes rate cuts are coming in the summer
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Citi analysts still believe interest rate cuts are coming in the summer despite an uncomfortable backdrop in the U.S. economy as inflation has still sustained. Real GDP rose 1.6% quarter-over-quarter SAAR in the first quarter, softer than consensus expectations, which were at 2.5%. Citi Research's estimates were at 2%. Private domestic demand rose 3.1%, but core PCE inflation was at 3.7%, stronger than expected. If March core inflation doesn't slow, it would increase the probability of a July rate cut. Softer growth concerns will be a key factor for the Fed to consider cuts, as this quarter's GDP results show fading support from fiscal stimulus and softer goods spending. Citi analysts still believe the markets are wrong for pricing out cuts entirely this year.

#InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #RateCuts #Gdp

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4094955-citi-still-believe-rate-cuts-are-coming-in-the-summer


Fed's preferred inflation gauge rises in line with consensus in March
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The Core PCE Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose 0.3% M/M in March, matching the +0.3% consensus and the +0.3% pace logged in February. On a Y/Y basis, the core PCE index rose 2.8%, topping the +2.7% consensus and holding the +2.8% pace in February. The PCE Price Index, which includes food and energy, also increased 0.3% M/M vs. +0.3% expected and +0.3% prior. On a Y/Y basis, that comes to +2.7% vs. +2.6% expected and +2.5% prior. Consumer spending continued to surprise to the upside. Personal outlays rose 0.8% M/M vs. +0.6% consensus and +0.8% prior. Personal income increased 0.5% M/M, matching the consensus and accelerating from +0.3% in February.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4094839-feds-preferred-inflation-gauge-rises-03-mm-in-march-as-expected


Cantor Fitzgerald CEO sees one rate cut just ahead of U.S. presidential election - report
==========

Howard Lutnick, CEO of Cantor Fitzgerald, predicts one interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve shortly before the U.S. presidential election in September 2024. Lutnick believes the rate cut is not intended to stimulate the economy but rather to show support for the current employer of the voters. The prediction aligns with market expectations, with traders' chances of a June cut now at 9.3% and the first cut pushed out to December. The Federal Open Market Committee is expected to hold its policy rate at the 5.25%-5.50% target range in the upcoming meeting. The decision may be influenced by the trend of increasing inflation. The resilient economic data and more hawkish stance of Fed officials suggest that rate cuts may be delayed until the end of the year. Lutnick's prediction is in line with the market's expectations.

#FederalReserve #InterestRateCut #PresidentialElection #CantorFitzgerald

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4094388-cantor-fitzgerald-ceo-sees-one-rate-cut-just-ahead-of-presidential-election-report


U.S. GDP growth cools markedly in Q1, to its slowest pace in two years
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The U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annual rate of 1.6% in Q1 2024, falling short of the +2.3% consensus and slowing from the +3.4% in Q4 2023. This marks the slowest pace in two years. The deceleration in GDP growth may signal the impact of the Federal Reserve's tight policy on the economy. Q1 personal consumption expenditures growth also cooled, rising 2.5% compared to the +2.8% consensus and +3.3% prior. Inflation heated up during the quarter, with the Q1 PCE price index growing 3.4% and the core PCE price index increasing 3.7%.

#UsEconomy #GdpGrowth #FederalReserve #Inflation

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4094072-us-gross-domestic-product-growth-cools-markedly-in-q1


GDP watch: U.S. economic growth likely slowed in Q1
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The U.S. economy likely grew at a slower pace in Q1, with economists expecting GDP to have risen at a 2.5% annualized rate, compared to 3.4% in Q4. Consumer spending remains strong, supported by a resilient labor market. Comerica Bank economists expect tailwinds to growth from consumer and government spending, as well as businesses' investments in nonresidential fixed investment and inventories. However, residential investment likely pulled back in Q1. Saxo strategists suggest that the strong labor market, manufacturing cycle, and consumer strength could lead to an upside surprise in GDP. Wells Fargo notes that while headline durable goods orders rose in March, weakness in shipments may result in a softer-than-expected reading for GDP growth. Market participants hope for a softer number that would pave the way for interest rate cuts sooner. Some expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates in July, while others bet on cuts beginning in September as inflation remains sticky.

#Gdp #EconomicGrowth #Q1 #ConsumerSpending #LaborMarket #ComericaBank #SaxoStrategists #WellsFargo #InterestRateCuts #FederalReserve #Inflation

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4093822-us-gdp-preview-economic-growth-q1-consumer-spending


U.S. Q1 2024 GDP Growth Looks Set For Slowdown In Thursday's Release
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The US economy is expected to post softer growth in the first-quarter GDP report scheduled for release on Thursday, with estimates indicating a 2.0% increase. Despite the decelerating growth, most estimates suggest that the economy will continue to expand at a healthy pace. Some analysts worry that the delay in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve raises the potential for trouble later in the year. However, consumer spending remains solid, based on real levels, indicating resilience in the face of monetary policy tightening. The key debate is whether the economy will stabilize at a softer pace of growth or decelerate further in the coming months.

#UsEconomy #GdpGrowth #FederalReserve #ConsumerSpending

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685744-us-q1-2024-gdp-growth-looks-set-for-slowdown-in-thursdays-release


U.S. Economic Growth Up, Fed Rate Cuts Coming Later
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The US economy grew in the first quarter, supported by strong hiring activity and gradually waning inflationary pressures. The AllianceBernstein (AB) has increased its 2024 full-year GDP growth forecast to 1.5% in real terms. Inflation is expected to cool more slowly, leading to a delayed start for expected interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The larger labor pool resulting from net migration flows has allowed businesses to hire more without increasing wages significantly. Wage growth has slowed despite robust hiring, reducing concerns about a wage-price spiral. The AllianceBernstein expects net migration flows to boost growth in 2024, leading to a soft landing. Inflation is expected to continue declining, with core inflation projected to fall back to 2.0% by 2025. The Federal Reserve is likely to exercise patience and delay rate cuts as long as inflation expectations remain anchored. Instead of four rate cuts, the AllianceBernstein now expects only one cut of 25 basis points in the fourth quarter. The views expressed in the article do not constitute research, investment advice, or trade recommendations.

#UsEconomy #EconomicGrowth #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #WageGrowth #MigrationFlows

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685402-us-economic-growth-up-fed-rate-cuts-coming-later


JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon: U.S. economy is booming, but beware of fiscal dominance
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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon views the U.S. economy's resilience as "unbelievable" and notes that growth has been "booming" in the post-pandemic era. However, he warns of the possibility of stagflation due to massive fiscal spending and deficits. Dimon points out that the U.S.'s fiscal spending is one of the main drivers of the current strong growth but also acknowledges the tradeoff with inflation. He expresses doubt about the confidence in a soft landing for the U.S. economy, even in the event of a recession. Dimon highlights that the consumer is still in good shape.

#Jpmorgan #JamieDimon #UsEconomy #FiscalDominance #Growth #Stagflation #Inflation #Recession #Consumer

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4092681-jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-us-economy-is-booming-but-beware-of-fiscal-dominance


How vulnerable is the market to an AI swoon? SA analysts share their thoughts
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Wall Street's major market averages have rallied early this week, bouncing back from recent weakness. However, worries remain that the market may have over-extended itself earlier this year amid a frothy market for AI-related stocks. Some analysts believe that the market is in the euphoria phase of an AI bubble and it remains unclear whether it will be overtaken by profit taking or continue to propel valuations higher. Others argue that bubbles in the AI sector and high beta parts of the market are deflating and the S&P 500 is likely to fall further. However, some analysts believe that the stock market is not in a bubble and the idea of an 'everything bubble' is not supported by data. For investors interested in the AI marketplace, there are several AI-focused exchange-traded funds (ETFs) available for investment.

#Ai #StockMarket #Bubble #Analysts #Etfs

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4092556-how-vulnerable-is-the-market-to-an-ai-swoon-sa-analysts-share-their-thoughts


Madison Covered Call And Equity Income Fund Q1 2024 Investment Strategy Letter
==========

The Madison Covered Call and Equity Income Fund Q1 2024 Investment Strategy Letter discusses the performance of the fund in the first quarter of 2024. The S&P 500 had a strong performance, gaining 10.6% in Q1. However, the Fund's individual equity positions lagged relative to the index. The Fund follows a covered call strategy, sacrificing upside growth potential for downside protection. The letter highlights the risks in the stock market, including high valuations, concentration in a few stocks, and the potential for a market correction. The Fund remains defensively positioned and aims to protect capital in an increasingly risky environment.

#MadisonCoveredCallAndEquityIncomeFund #Q12024 #InvestmentStrategy #S&p500 #StockMarket #CoveredCallStrategy

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4685306-madison-covered-call-and-equity-income-fund-q1-2024-investment-strategy-letter


Goldman Sachs says core PCE inflation set to cool down in 2024.
==========

Goldman Sachs predicts that core PCE inflation will decrease in 2024. The PCE inflation figures, to be released this week, could impact the stock market. Core PCE inflation accelerated to a 4% average monthly annualized pace in Q1 2024, driven by a 22% climb in consumer electronics prices and a 10.1% increase in financial services prices. However, Goldman Sachs expects the pace of monthly core PCE to slow down to 0.18% on average for the rest of 2024, reflecting softer inflation in consumer electronics, financial services, and healthcare services. The bank projects core PCE to reach a 2.6% year-on-year rate in December. A lower-than-expected PCE reading could lead to a rally in stocks. The release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which contains the core PCE print, is expected on Friday. Economists anticipate a 0.3% month-over-month increase in both headline and core inflation figures, with headline PCE rising to a 2.6% year-over-year rate and core PCE coming in at 2.7%.

#GoldmanSachs #PceInflation #StockMarket #ConsumerPrices #InterestRates

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4092130-goldman-sachs-sees-core-inflation-trending-lower-in-2024-with-key-pce-report-on-deck


Yardeni sees 'big rally' due for stocks if PCE inflation abates
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A "big rally" in stocks may be in store if the Federal Reserve's key inflation gauge shows cooling, Yardeni Research said. The 10-year Treasury yield scaling higher dragged the S&P 500 last week down ~5.6% from its all-time high logged on March 28. The current selloff is likely to continue this week. However, there could be a big rally on Friday if we learn that the March PCED inflation rate was lower than is widely expected. The 10-year yield has climbed during a recent bond rout as stubborn inflation dims expectations for the Fed to sharply cut down interest rates. The core PCE inflation reading for March is slated to be released Friday, with economists projecting that the headline and core figures will show a 0.3% rise month over month. The S&P 500 may find some upside technical support ~4800, Yardeni said. His firm sees the equity benchmark at 5400 at the end of this year.

#Stocks #PceInflation #FederalReserve #S&p500 #BondMarket

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4092084-yardeni-says-big-rally-due-for-stocks-if-pce-inflation-abates


Beige Book analysis suggests district sentiment may help to predict recessions (DXY)
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The use of large-language models may be allowing economists to turn narratives into data. Four economic researchers applied technology to determine if the Beige Book could help identify or predict recessions. They used FinBERT, a variant of BERT, a deep learning model using natural language processing. The model is more useful than word counts or simpler language processing models. The researchers found that the national economic sentiment does not always lie in the middle of the district-level estimates. The national sentiment weighted some districts heavier than others. Sentiment in Chicago, Minneapolis, Philadelphia, Richmond, and San Francisco was most helpful in predicting current U.S. business cycle turning points. Boston's district proved most useful in predicting three and six months ahead. The analysis suggested that the probability of a national recession was low as of March 2024, but this probability has bounced around considerably since the pandemic-induced recession of early 2020.

#BeigeBook #Recessions #EconomicSentiment #DistrictlevelEstimates #UsBusinessCycle #EconomicAnalysis

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4091585-beige-book-analysis-shows-district-sentiment-may-help-to-predict-recessions


10 High-Yield Dividend Aristocrats Perfect For An Uncertain Market
==========

Volatility in the stock market is normal and healthy, with average yearly gains of 22% in positive years and average peak intra-year declines of -14%. Dividend aristocrats, which have lower volatility than the overall market, can be a good investment during market downturns. The ten lowest-volatility aristocrats offer a 3.1% average yield, a 50-year dividend growth streak, and an A-credit rating. Since 2007, they have fallen 50% less than the S&P during bear markets. They historically delivered 10% returns that analysts think will likely continue, along with 9% to 10% annual income growth. Consider adding some bonds and managed futures for those seeking even lower volatility. Low volatility + bonds/managed futures fell just 12% during the Great Recession, less than 25% of the S&P's decline and 72% less than a 60-40 retirement portfolio. The article provides a list of the ten lowest-volatility aristocrats trading at fair value or better, along with their average fundamentals and potential returns. These companies have an average yield of 3.1%, average annual volatility of 16.5%, and an average credit rating of A-. They offer a 17% 12-month total return potential and a long-term return potential of 9% to 10%. Adding bonds and managed futures to these low-volatility aristocrats can further reduce volatility and provide downside protection during market downturns. The article emphasizes the importance of embracing volatility and avoiding panic selling during corrections.

#DividendAristocrats #Volatility #StockMarket #Investment #BearMarkets #IncomeGrowth #Bonds #ManagedFutures

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4684035-10-high-yield-dividend-aristocrats-perfect-for-uncertain-market


Microsoft likely to show 'solid' results in Azure and Office as AI spending ramps: BofA
==========

Bank of America expects Microsoft to show 'solid' results in Azure and Office in its fiscal second-quarter report. Analyst Brad Sills predicts a 1% upside to the Q3 revenue estimate of $60.5 billion, driven by sustained Azure and M365 strength. Microsoft does not break out revenue specific to Azure, but in the previous quarter, Azure sales grew 30% or 28% in constant currency. Sills expects Azure growth of 28% in the current quarter, aided by positive system integrator partner feedback and increased usage of Azure AI and data services. Office is also expected to benefit from AI, particularly from Microsoft's Copilot offerings. Sills predicts a $220 million upside to the Productivity and Business Processes Performance segment revenue estimate, driven by better Commercial Office growth and early traction with M365 Copilot. Sills believes that much of the benefit from AI is still to come, as the AI market is projected to reach $944 billion by 2027. Microsoft's fiscal second-quarter results are set to be released next week.

#Microsoft #Azure #Office #Ai #BankOfAmerica #Earnings

https://seekingalpha.com/news/4091402-microsoft-likely-to-show-solid-results-in-azure-and-office-as-ai-spending-ramps-bofa