Oddbean new post about | logout

Notes by Pre | export

 Stunned to learn the Polymarket CEO lives in America. New York of all places.

What on earth is he thinking? You can't live in Ameria and allow people to bet freely with their money. That kind of freedom is illegal in America.

So even though Polymarket claims not to support Americans, they've raided his house. Obviously.

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/fbi-raids-polymarket-ceos-home-seizing-phone-electronics-ny-post-reports-2024-11-13/ 
 Madness.

Employees should not be able to install any software at all on a work-device that they use at their job in a bank! 
 So do we still call it Twitter or X? 
 X is short for "Twitter", what else could it be a stand-in for? 
 Has anyone here tried a "dry fast"? I'm interested in learning more about it.

If you have done a... 
 I go dry during most of the week and only really drink loads of booze at the weekends.

Always drink plenty of water though, no body benefits from dehydration the way they can do from calorie restriction. 
 I am running out of storage. I don't what to do about this. Should I buy a physical drive or up m... 
 Sadly you have to do both so you have a backup. 
 If Satoshi’s identity was revealed, would it change anything for you?

Fuck doxxing btw. 
 Depends who it turns out to be probably.

If it was the CIA and they still hold the coins? That's a different matter to if it's just some professor from a small university or a dead Russian teenage hacker. 
 Wen bitcoin native politicians? 
 There aren't even any adults alive who are bitcoin native. Nobody has known it all their lives and yet is old enough to run for office. 
 Can we agree to deport ex-presidents for sex offenses? 
 Suspect most of those worries about an unjust justice system would apply to poor disenfranchised immigrants more than it would to rich lawyered-up presidents really.

Is the idea to deport people instead of imprisoning them or do they do their time for the crime first? 
 Dumb question: if I have 100% exposure to spot #Bitcoin, would seeking exposure to $MSTR be consi... 
 Its definitely not diversifying, but the prime reason would be that your can own mstr in your tax-advantageous retirement account. If you expect to use the conspiracy fiat system at all, then having some proportion of your gains within that system and not having to explain them to the tax-man could be useful. 
 Great, looking forward to seeing how many I decide to skip coz they're about football or something.

Expected to hate the name of the Peter McCormack show but you've managed to go even worse. Well done! You're not even really all that obnoxious compared to the average podcaster. 
 FOAD spammer. 
 Great, looking forward to seeing how many I decide to skip coz they're about football or something.

Expected to hate the name of the Peter McCormack show but you've managed to go even worse. Well done! You're not even really all that obnoxious compared to the average podcaster. 
 Will you feel as though you need to be more obnoxious now in order to justify the show-name? if not consciously, then subconsciously? Hope not. Obnoxiousness isn't all all gratifying in a host. 
 The other thing is that Pete reckoned half the reason for the re-brand was   embarrassment at telling dinner-dates his podcast's name, coz it has bitcoin in it, and now he's gonna have to tell all his dates that he is mister obnoxious. 😂  Should go down well. 
 I had a crazy dream last night. In the dream, I time travelled back to 2018. While it wasn't a pe... 
 Time travel is real, but sadly it's up-only. See you in the future! 
 Wow not heard this stat before but apparently Snoop Dogg has stated that for 1 BILLION streams, h... 
 I don't think you would want to pay the bandwidth bill for a billion streams. 
 I want to upload a massive, already-encrypted backup of my files.

I've been searching forever fo... 
 Most of those services just use Amazon S3 on the back-end anyway, so might as well just use that? Or a cheap compatible clone.

I use rclone to upload to object store on linode but it'd work with any s3 compatible service. 
 Heh. "All eternity" is pretty optimistic. Have you made a succession plan for responsibilities for the server after your death? 😆 

Skipped though some bits. Might have been more engaging if I could see what you were typing. Not really the sort of thing I pay attention to in general mate, but presumably OBS can put the chat onto the screen, and that might help with a reply. 
 Have you ever played a light-synth, done any VJ stuff?

I've seen people play with those toys at night-clubs on their game-controllers and midi-keyboards that are very visually engaging.

You may just be playing records while checking morning email and drinking coffee and not really want to spend more time on an X-Box controller making pretty lights of course.

Not sure I really understand what it means to play a light synth to be honest. Maybe I'll ask the ox over on Fedi. 
 Heh. "All eternity" is pretty optimistic. Have you made a succession plan for responsibilities for the server after your death? 😆 

Skipped though some bits. Might have been more engaging if I could see what you were typing. Not really the sort of thing I pay attention to in general mate, but presumably OBS can put the chat onto the screen, and that might help with a reply. 
 Too far, nothing there worth having. 
 Hi ya'll. What's your go to AI chat tool to use? 

I've mainly used Claude.ai and a lil bit of ch... 
 Perplexity fills it's context-buffers with the results of some more traditional searches which I think tends to give it an edge, and gives a way to check it's references. 
 Think I might just be the normiest person on #nostr 

Y'all speak a different language 😂 I loo... 
 Morning fellow normal human. I too am a normal human. Honest. 
 What do people in the UK do rn? 

Are we leaving? 
Are we staying? 
Did most already leave? 
 They did cut the kings head of that one time of course, and then there was the time they imposed an elected parliament upon the king.

They do like the doff the old cap though, bend the knee.

Dunno that there's anywhere else to go where they don't put journalists into jail or other peril, where they don't try to make judicial examples out of protestors. Pretty sure that's happening everywhere across the anglosphere at least.  America seems to be back to burning books rather than freedom of speech. 
 #realtalk
Nostr needs more uses from mastodon than Twitter. 
 Heh, it could uses the edit function from Mastodon at least ;) 
 Here's a pretty cool hour long video on why the Netherlands is so awesome and overpowered. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-cIHLgGZByY

In it they mention ASML, a Dutch company which in 2017 became the only company in the world which can make the best most powerful chip-making machines.

They have like 5 customers to whom they sell 300-million-dollar chip-making machines, and nobody else has the tech and knowhow to make the machines. They own the market.

 
 Here's their price-graph since 2017. Look familiar? Yes. It's the same shape as the bitcoin graph, because it's the same shape as the global liquidity graph, because the price of everything only reflects the dilution of money now.

Bitcoin's been doing about 2x better on average, though ASML reach a new high faster.

If you'd sold your bitcoin to buy one of the biggest booming international tech companies at the very bitcoin top, you were still just swapping one bear market for another. Still making losses after the sell.

Was there *anything* going up between October 21 and January 23?

https://image.nostr.build/96650c6dc10dcb55aafe158effea530d5743a87e626189398f498a2619139b70.jpg 
 Gold basically just flat during the last bitcoin bear market. 

https://image.nostr.build/ff982f132a03ade65cfb6ef55ab050254538de8a084462837ec74786d152775d.jpg 
 The S&P was only down 10% vs like 70% for the tech stocks and bitcoin. Could just dump into the index for a bear market I guess? Still lose, but more slowly.

https://image.nostr.build/72c2e6c083df17aac2b1c631a451cbdedf57ae50f6da9f832b8e00eabc0c258b.jpg 
 UK Home Secretary says “UK has lost respect for police”.

Well yes, yes we have. Probably bec... 
 Has she noticed that people have also lost respect for the office of the home secretary? 
 I got excited when someone posted that the UK Gov got suspended on X but it appears to be bollock... 
 Does the UK government still have it's account on Gab or Truth Social was it banned from there? I hear it was banned from shitposter club. 
 Hypothetically, if one were to outlive all your family and die without need of care, there could be an estate worth of crypto that a dying person would have no particular target for.

For a moment let us imagine such a person who has a published literary work. A blog and some books at least. They would like for at least some portion of their dying hodl stack to go to the person who pays the most attention to their life's work out of everyone in the next 50 years.

You want 'em to puzzle over your life's output and ideally maybe future-timelocked encrypted private diaries, and whoever solves the puzzle gets the bitcoin.

Like a sort of Ready Player One situation, with people competing to solve the puzzles, but just for some blogger loser who never got any followers but did luck into some bitcoin that might be worth even more 50 years later.

Imagine also that you aren't actually any good at making puzzles let alone cryptography.

Anyone wanna suggest things for a story about that? Or for instructions to an executor or whatever? 
 Is it even possible to cryptographically lock a file such that it can only be decrypted once a certain block-height is reached? Pass a message that can be unlocked only in the future? 
 I would guess not possible, because you could always fake a chain with exponentially decreasing difficulty-adjustments.

You could lock coins so nobody would care until they became spendable at a given block-height though. Make people 50 years from now read your damned blog. 
 Or one of your books has the chapters such that increasing prime-number-indexed words are the key-phrase. Or fibinachi instead of prime.

And it swaps books every prime.

But all such puzzles would be solved before you even died, or within moments of the dead-mans-lock expiring.
 
 Actually, even with existing time-lock mechanisms: How do you protect against a fake-chain with exponentially-decreasing difficulty adjustments?

Presumably whatever keys get spit out at year X also get spit out at fake year X in fake chain? 
 Ironically, I will never know any way to achieve such a goal because nobody will read this post to suggest a way that might work even though it says a word like month in it for no obvious reason and and maybe that is one of the words?

 
 I still like Twitter  
 I can't seem to find it any more. I think it closed down and some some sort of 4-chan like troll site called x dot com took over all the old URLs. 
 Some thoughts on streaming...

Today was really cool, I broadcast on my Owncast server and Zap St... 
 What does it even mean to incorporate zaps into your owncast?

If you have a lightning wallet you can presumably have it generate a donation QR code and display that in the stream.

But beyond that, you'd have to have some client integration? Are people visiting a page on your owncast server in order to view the stream? You'd be asking them to hook their wallet into your own personal streaming server. Not sure many people will want to to that.

If you just mean sending zaps to your nostr address then again, it's back-channel stuff. You just need to display your npub, maybe as a QR code, and let people get to it.
 
 Yeah, the fediverse is mostly against bitcoin. They quite rightly view all of crypto as a big old scam and mostly aren't really involved enough to understand permissionless-money  enabled all those scams but isn't in itself a scam. Or at least is no more of a scam than the dollar.

Never used it, but presumably users in zap.stream have already connected their wallets to zap.stream, which can enable a one-button zapping.

If you want the QR code to not contain an amount then I think it has to LnURL, which is basically just a link to a website that can create an invoice with a user-suggested amount.

Not entirely sure what kinds of things you need to be running to generate an LnUrl. Presumably some wallets do it, by offering that website to allow users to specify amounts and generate a proper invoice.

 
 So I think I’ve got the streaming much better now, without the technical problems but the zaps ... 
 Clearly people like the technical problems, that's what they're paying for. Consider pulling out a few wires to see what happens.  
 To be honest, if you’re still getting your world view from X, you’re being played like a fool... 
 🤷  depends who you follow really. Nobody gets their world-view from X, they get it from the people who use X. Admitedly everyone cool already left, but still, not everyone remaining there is andrew tate and jorden peterson. 
 It is an issue that the person who controls twitter is so politically outspoken. 
 It is an issue that there is a person who controls twitter at all of course. Even Silent Bob shouldn't control it. 
 I watched a Trump speech because of Bitcoin. I'll never recover from this, neurologically. 
 Very rambling wasn't it? Couldn't stay on topic.

Not sure what that bit about woke military has to do with anything. Sounds like the US is in trouble if the military ever have to go undercover with woke groups. They won't be able to do it. Can't fake it. Just impossible for US military to be woke it seems.

Guess it would be good to have a legal system with more clarity, but he didn't say what that system would be, only that he'd put together a panel of shitcoiners to invent one. 
 That "livestream" was mostly dead-air and adverts, awful really. 
 So let me get this straight, to impress Americans you just have to say “America is really, real... 
 Also tell them their military are not woke, that their military would never be woke. Maybe some people might try to make them woke but no, not your military. Your military will never be woke. 
 Massive public bitcoin mining company, Marathon:

"Screw this Bitcoin Mining business! Toiling with processors doing hard proof-of-work every day. Mug's game innit?  You know what we're gonna do with our money?.. We're gonna BUY BITCOIN instead!"

They said, "Mining machines are a waste of money, underemployed capital innit?"

Economic experts agreed: "Microstrategy proved there is no point owning a public company that isn't simply holding bitcoin, now Marathon prove there is no point in even mining bitcoin either."

Said another even more important expert: "There is literally no better use for all shitty fiat money than buying bitcoin. Not software, not services, not even mining bitcoin!"

A further expert, Mr Jump Beforeyougetpushed, said "Jump in the life-boat or drown in the liquidity that's coming!" as he climbed off the exit-ramp into safety.

In the end the only expert that matters, your mum, commented, "It is the Bitcoin Event Horizon, no economic activity is more profitable than holding bitcoin so all economic activity stops, right now"



https://image.nostr.build/653ee3b8ddeced9e1b490df218c27d51cf355c448ea7e947916d52eaf85ca09d.jpg 
 Now go to your room!

There'll be no more satoshi until bedtime. 
 Yo dawgs, I don’t get religious people.
How can all religions be the right one? If only one is ... 
 The only true one is this one. Duh. The one that admits it's all made up.
 
https://image.nostr.build/fae1a53aa86fd9166cd67b258e7b83911c5391889c722053f4b30812ee4193fc.jpg 
 Yes, I remember my jaw actually dropping while reading the birth of the orphan on the bus years ago. Brilliant. 
 Biden announced he is not running for president on Twitter, a centralized company, via an account... 
 The same message also went to Threads and Instagram and whatever other ungodly corporate advertising supported surveillance media the office uses though right? Wasn't like a Twitter Exclusive. 
 Upside down flag foreshadows the downfall of America?  
 More and more stories talking about the positive effects of smoking…

Unexpected. 
 Trying to think of some. Maybe the stink keeps the other people away?  
 Tucker must be a crazy person. Smoking increases impotence.

Nic in a patch or lozenge might plausibly help for loving forever but not when smokes for sures. 
 Happy Birthday Julian. Congrats on the release. Thanks for the work, and the fortitude. ✊  
 Zaps should be called Donks imo. I’m calling them Donks.

No masters, no rules. 
 But then wouldn't you confuse them with Donks? How can you tell the difference between a Donk and a Donk unless you spell one of the differently? Are you going to start using some other word than "Donk" for donks? 
 Man getting some odd takes on the Fediverse about Assange. Apparently locking journalists up in B... 
 A lot of national-intelligence bots perk up whenever the name is mentioned. A lot of the takes you read aren't from people but are from national security agencies programming their bot-nets.

Seems lots of people also think journalists should only report the misdeeds of their opponents during an election and that if you report the misdeeds of their side then you're a stooge being manipulated by Russia. 
 The US justice system is a joke.

Julian Assange never did anything illegal. His plea deal is for... 
 Biden and Trump and Bush's crimes are far worse than anything Assange was accused of. Will they all get a plea-deal? 
 Seems more like the mice have a that-dude problem. :( 
 LOL I just got an email from The Orange Pill App saying...

"Here's our pledge to you:

    We wi... 
 It's impossible for a capital-owned company to credibly make such assurances. All it takes is one billionaire and they can buy the company, change the policy and do whatever they want with the data. No private company can promise data-security, they are not in a position to provide it.

I agree, the only way to keep data safe is to never collect it and certainly never put it on the private servers of a capital owned corporation.