yeah, exactly, but ecash is already at an early stage, in late beta i would call it, i think this will help mitigate some of the continued costs of development overshadowing the increasing volume

and yeah, considering not just the price itself but also the curve of the change in volume would be needed to make a prediction about whether we are on the brink of the vertical of the S curve

we have full adoption by legacy finance now, we have the first "cash" format for the system, i would say we are in the early stages of acceleration now 

 custodial lightning providers and ecash mints are the credit card payment and banks of the bitcoin ecosystem

i think that as we see the ecash ecosystem mature, we will have a complete monetary system and from that basis we accelerate up the adoption curve's sigma pivot point to the moon... i think that's going to be this next cycle, and probably to continue at a slower pace next cycle

i think the reason why it looks like the bitcoin price curve has decelerated has been because of early adopters spending their coins back into development of the system... once that has successfully built the infrastructure required to facilitate adoption it will sharply turn upwards again

there is a very high chance that we are going to see a bigger price movement this current bull market than people expect because there is almost everything required for a massive amount of money to move into bitcoin and stay there

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqnyqqft6tz9g9pyaqjvp0s4a4tvcfvj6gkke7mddvmj86w68uwe0qyghwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpzamhxue69uhk6mr9dd6jumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyq9yt7f2pkp89en5cdajv5qhf42w89nm2uw90j3vuzxkq66f45v3665nx8x 

 i think it's a sigma curve, which means that deceleration can be expected but will move to acceleration after that

adoption curves are sigma curves 

https://rmi.org/insight/harnessing-the-power-of-s-curves/

https://rmi.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/10/harness-s-curves-chart.png

i think the fact that the new president of USA is talking up bitcoin means we are in the steepest part of the sigma, which means acceleration should start either this cycle or the next 

 and yeah, the reason for the deceleration is described in the 4th segment of that chart... it's because bitcoiners have been investing in rolling out the infrastructure to enable the adoption to take place, we are in the late half of that part of the cycle for sure... and not only that, it looks like the 4 year cycle may even be the exact match for the adoption phases in this case, partly because of the 10x each time 

 i would bet that if you look at a chart showing the estimate of number of active wallets over the life cycle of bitcoin we are coming to an acceleration point just like the sigma curve

this is when the payoff really kicks in for the early adopters... this is when the tableflip starts 

 it also may require taking into account the disappearance of on chain transaction into lightning, which means you probably need to composit the on-chain wallet estimation with the growth of the number of lightning nodes and UTXOs creating channels

and the advances in that tech are also concealing this userbase acceleration a bit as well i think, it may not even look much like acceleration on the basis of on-chain wallets, because of the necessity to shift more and more offchain 

 a bunch of autist geeks who hate banksters are on track to beat Saudi Aramco and then after that, Amazon for market footprint

next cycle we will definitely pass them by

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzq7ueramk6pxc0j6agfvk3qv855s0dt7pdv4e45nd434caemv9pqdqyv8wumn8ghj7enfd36x2u3wdehhxarj9emkjmn99uq32amnwvaz7tmjv4kxz7fwv3sk6atn9e5k7tcqyq2qh0ueecqur4rnvqph4ux2jskjqe8mq3f3wexsgvunylagnta6vnjtzxu 

 i see, and you are one of these experts right? 

 and what keeps the tx fees in the double sats 

 always believe what your favourite influencer tells you

they know you better than you do

they are your psychopomp, your shaman, your Leader, Dein Fuhrer 

 also "imaginary intellectual construct" 

 it is the prophecy ™️  

 cyan, but ok 

 congenital escapologist here... the more i feel like i'm being fenced in the more abrupt and intense my escape will be 

 bitcoin is mooning, but i'm sure you expected that was coming sooner or later

out of service sounds like a nice place to be 

 https://c.tenor.com/0iCG-EWpDzMAAAAd/tenor.gif

we are the new monastic class, showing the way for the righteous out of the hellscape of the cities that have been turned into prisons 

 thtose who see will follow, none who wish to be saved will be left behind, they will bleat from their thicket, and we will return for them 

 those who don't understand it are not finding a way to the refuge 

 what i disagree with is that for those who oppose and wantonly disregard this love and the rights of their fellows

is they must be ignored, shunned, and from the places of their abiding, fled

it's a big world out here, and there is many places already where the evil ones reach is weak 

 violence is always lesser than departing and shunning

and it is the thing that the psychopath fears the most 

 https://youtu.be/3x2ABSAMVno

bang bang, he shot me down 

 the sign i haves them will be when you tail me towards my lair and then suddenly i jump out of my vehicle and disappear into bushes over a barbed wire fence and hear a "thunk" noise and then you try to climb the fence and go and look and all you see is leaf litter 

 "we" "you people"

those are both specious

one, only one person can speak at a time

two, i have never met this comte guy but i have had many agreements with him and appreciated his spicing up my own understandings, as i believe he has of mine

i'm a hermit, there is no we 

 it's an interesting fact that not only does he have the distinction that now Trump also has, he was the rounded-down half sequence number of presidential terms as well

and other things, liek there was a controversy and actually at the time, the Republican party sounded like the Democrat party of today, brazen, lawless, and power hungry

there's numerous other parallels but the most notable trend out of it is that it's like we are in the looking glass at this point 

 i would like a change from the climate of fear 

 also feminist and trans 

 https://cdn.satellite.earth/43154608a259cab0f5d10995485a64972aa3758d0cb90c1c7664dd98b490bb51.jpg

this will have to do for now

this is really quite rare, even though on the surface it is charred af

i like rare beef, and i like charred beef, this is so tasty i can't even 

 so, guess what

it was twice as much as i feel able to eat

so, whatever, bag it up, in the fridge, fry it in some dripping tomorrow and that's my next day sorted too 

 good food is life 

 the final result

https://cdn.satellite.earth/f113998d174fecc1e2f571851123840e393bb2108915e0da215b8472709c9645.jpg

now to eat

i need to get one of those stands that let you hang them and use your fork and knife to slide them off and eat them one by one

alls i got here is this ceramic coated frypan right now

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqnyqqft6tz9g9pyaqjvp0s4a4tvcfvj6gkke7mddvmj86w68uwe0qyghwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpzamhxue69uhk6mr9dd6jumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqypuc2s5y56x9stfm2l9qh6zm3cm4uyjz69yqx3ffxv75kv795jr8vry5sct 

 i don't think i cut them up right, i think they need to be thinner and smaller overall, maybe 1/5th thinner or so 

 https://cdn.satellite.earth/2a02b3667eb86d53380eac5a9825d19cb3c128114645406e6335f0bb51dd70bc.jpg

that pine cone wicked up all the grease boiling off it and made it burn pretty hard... putting it to one side... got me some good char, anyhow, and rearranged the fire to not char it so much on the other side 

 i'm clearly going to need to get a lot of wood for this, and not just slabs but lots of little bits, or maybe a tomahawk so i can buy a big pile of short cut logs and split them into little bits to get a roaring fire going first so i get actual bed of coals

anyway, first rodeo... will be better as i learn how this works

i love fire, this is like 20 years since i played like this 

 super excited tho... this is gonna be epic

definitely need some sticks with this, so i'm gonna start wandering about looking for stuff

there was places i saw when i first landed on this island, dense stands of young eucalyptus, and you can just gather up the trash fallen on the ground and have enough for a really good bbq in about 2 minutes

just gotta learn where such woods are around me now... the coals are great, they form a base, but you gotta get a roaring fire running first with lots of small twigs and sticks 

 https://cdn.satellite.earth/5d9d604a83a57722a260b407e6084be5b2f874dd73ce31eccc6e534ea1172bab.jpg

it begins

nostr:nevent1qvzqqqqqqypzqnyqqft6tz9g9pyaqjvp0s4a4tvcfvj6gkke7mddvmj86w68uwe0qyghwumn8ghj7mn0wd68ytnvv9hxgtcpzamhxue69uhk6mr9dd6jumn0wd68yvfwvdhk6tcqyzmx7t6tmxlkuefzr09veu2mnl70hm3q74pl4evdlpnjtq07ergds6ncepp 

 i'm hoping to use it to springboard off to the part of the world where i want to set up my citadel, and buckle up there for the next cycle, and try to stack more than i spend 

 yeah, it leaves Star Wars in the dust for my money 

 less wheat more butter 

 what is croissant? butter and wheat flour right? 

 also, idk, i've hardly seen anywhere over on the north side with croissant... portuguese like these funny little things called "pastel de nata" which are actually a little cup of pastry with custard in the middle 

 we never ask, but we always receive 

 no, i'm lying, i think i have seen croissants but they tend to overcook them and i never looked at the price because i never had the urge to buy one 

 my favourite image from the Tao is the Taoist Butcher who never needs to sharpen his knives because he always cuts where it is ready to part 

 words like "experts" and "professionals" kinda gives away the fact that if they aren't an actual AI, they are equally empty headed 

 we'll also know at that point that they have been feeding them data from smart people blatherings also 

 well, they all work the same way, i think... you have your nonce, your shared secret, and there can be another thing... i forget just now... some code that "namespaces" the keystream by protocol... i was using something, i forget now, disregard

and anyway, so you hash the concatenation of your nonce and secret, and that is block 0, and then hash that, you get block 1, and that's a feedback cipher

oh yes, and then

if you do a counter mode, like CTR style, you just hash the nonce and secret with bytes of a counter of some kind (potentially could be a hash chain, for fun, but idk, maybe just 8 bytes of a straight count-up is enough

difference between these two styles is the first you have to derive the stream ahead of the messages, and if you get a tx failure midstream, it's gone

counter mode can tolerate transmission errors, if you have added an error correction scheme to your data encoding

there's really nothing more to it than that, as far as i can tell, and if you can detect a mistake in my procedure, i'm most interested to hear it, but i'm pretty sure that's how it works, and the whole thing is AES uses the Rijndael cipher, which won the competition at the time to become the official AES

it's not broken yet but neither is SHA256 and i figure since i have access to a SIMD version i can make a CTR mode with SHA256, using x-only schnorr signatures as the HMAC on each packet, and done, there's your basic sketch of my bitcoin/nostr noise protocol suite 

 as far as i can understand it, Galois Counter Mode (GCM) which is very popular, despite having repetition after 4gb is a variant of straight Counter Mode (CTR), and then you can add on AEAD which is some bullshit that gives you some kind of hash based signature that "authenticates" the data (via some random new key, usually, sent at the beginning of a transmission or so) and note that when i say "transmission error" with the case of feedback ciphers, where the ciphertext of a block is hashed to generate the next ciphertext, this only applies within the context of a transmission unit, ie, about 1500 bytes or so... so if your data stream has its own error correction then a dropped packet is the same as a mangled packet so long as there is a stream sequence number 

 ah yes, what i was going to say was GCM differs from CTR in that CTR just uses a set of bytes, 4 or 8 or so, that just counts upwards, in addition to the secret and the nonce

GCM changes this up by using a hash chain instead of a simple sequential counter, which spices it up some more, but AES-GCM only uses a 4 byte counter 

 there is a lot of mystification around the subject of how this stuff works

for the most part "finite field" literally means the number sequence of a hash chain, as in Galois Field

The hash function is really centrtal to the security of it all, and then second to that is how hard it is to trivially inject a substantial fraction of the seed of a cipher such that you can break the rest, this is a problem both with feedback and counter mode ciphers, but a greater problem with feedback and code book style, and i think the purpose of a GCM style

my inclination is to just crank it all up to 256 bits, make 32 byte nonces, to go with the 32 byte shared secret, and use a 32 byte galois field that is derived from the hash of the nonce and secret, i don't see how you can manipulate that, it's way too big numbers, and trivial for most modern hardware to do it 

 yeah, i think if i am gonna do an impossible to crack ECDH based encryption scheme it will use a 256 bit GCM style based on the hash of the secret and nonce, so it will have zero repeats within the realms of our current bandwidth requirements, and a 32 bit nonce

all of those short bits, like GCM-AES 32 bit counter and CTR's 64 bit counter

the ideal is GCM, and the strongest hash we know of to date is SHA256

the others that are trendy these days, like Blake2/2b/3 and ChaCha20 etc make compromises to make them more performant, but if performance is no issue, as it isn't for most hardware now, 64 bit AMD architecture or ARM, or even RISCV, they all have now got SIMD capabilities that mean these hash functions are now cheap and all those bit shavings are not essential

sure, support teh old style, for old stuff and low power stuff, i mean really low power stuff, where security is zero if the thing goes dark, but for everyone else... 

 not sure if you understand how hash chains work... yes, a GCM style cipher you have to generate hash chains, so for message block 10000 you have to do 10000 hashes on the seed

GCM is the best design, but the shitty AES standard limits a stream of data on one nonce/secret to 4gb, and i think that should be bigger by now 

 the most important thing that the state education system does, which ironically benefits their enemies, is to ignore teaching skepticism and the actual scientific method

the results of that are playing out in real time

the effectiveness of propaganda is greatly increased and they use it to control their own tax cattle but then surprise surprise the enemies all leverage this as well and the end result is total chaos

it eventually has to come to a climax at some point, after which people will never accept it again, at least not for a few thousand years 

 oh wow that's steep, i never saw them over 7% before

catching the wave i guess, i'm betting they will say "but muh volatility" 

 there is this project called "vexl" that i never got around to using but it uses social media graphs to find you trading partners

there surely must be p2p traders out here

#asknostr - does anyone know of decently scammer free p2p trading methods, not including the most well known ones... 

 well, idk, i guess that's the price of minimal bullshit right now... since it's a percentage you can do smaller amounts and it's smaller amounts they take

i've been in this since 2012 and so i'd say that this is probably par for the course, money changers gonna money change, and this is why also a lot of bitcoiners move to more friendly places 

 well, this is the world as it is, not as you wish it to be 

 bah fuck them, if they don't read your account of your experience then they don't deserve your attention

besides, most of them have their ways to get cash and could actually help you out

i'm sure during this bull market there will be a lot of people starting up who have piles of bitcoin, who convert a part of it to cash and start selling it p2p

the amount of bullshit governments are doing these days to try and enforce their protection racket is probably higher than it ever has been 

 peanut squirrel? 

 and, oh yeah... this beef has pretty good marbling... it's not wagyu level but better than anything i've seen on this island to date 

 i already had an inkling of most of these things, just not so much optimism in 1998

but they really nail it in so many ways... not long after this was published i also was moving in all the directions it talks about, the free speech, the counter-inflationary, the anti-monopoly

truly the author of this text had angelic vision