More CEOs expect hybrid work is here to stay
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According to a survey by KPMG US, fewer big-company CEOs expect workers to return to the office full-time. Just 34% of US CEOs expect office-based roles to return in the near future, down from 62% in 2023. The survey also showed that 46% of CEOs expect office roles to be hybrid, up from 34% in 2023. Only 3% of CEOs back fully remote work. CEOs are also exploring new ways of scheduling work, such as a four-day week or a four-and-a-half-day week. The survey found that 87% of CEOs are confident in the growth trajectory of the US economy, and 78% are confident in the global economy and the prospects for their companies in the next year. About one-third of CEOs expect a significant increase in hiring in the next year. CEOs are also looking to adopt generative artificial intelligence (AI) more widely, with nearly four in 10 CEOs expecting their companies to move from AI pilots to broader use within the next 12 to 18 months. CEOs are also planning to disclose the use of AI, with 81% planning to flag when AI is involved, up from 19% in 2023. However, CEOs expressed concerns about the US presidential election, high interest rates, geopolitical challenges, and inflation.
https://www.businessinsider.com/hybrid-work-here-to-stay-ceos-rto-remote-2024-4
The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
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The US economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future. Housing and manufacturing indicators suggest an early-cycle economy, while the unemployment rate and tight credit spreads indicate a late-cycle economy. The conflicting data suggests the Federal Reserve should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. The Fed's monetary policy has had less impact on the economy in recent years. The mismatch in economic indicators calls for flexibility in interest rate decisions. The release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report reduced the probability of a rate cut in June and pushed it to July.
#Economy #Recession #InterestRates #FederalReserve
https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-recession-outlook-mixed-signals-early-late-cycle-interest-rates-2024-4
The Jamie Dimon manifesto
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, outlines policy ideas in his 2023 shareholder letter. He emphasizes the need for the US to strengthen its role in the global economy and address domestic unrest. Dimon proposes policy changes to improve economic equality and bolster the earned income tax credit. He also discusses the importance of global peace, resolving the war in Ukraine, and rethinking global trade alliances. Dimon calls for a reimagined Bretton Woods agreement and highlights the issues of immigration, border security, and the fraying of the American dream. He suggests stronger action on border control and policies to drive economic growth. Dimon advocates for educational reforms, job-skills training, and expanding the earned income tax credit. He believes in the enduring values of America and its ability to meet future challenges.
#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #Policy #UsEconomy #GlobalPeace #Ukraine #TradeAlliances #EconomicEquality #EarnedIncomeTaxCredit #Immigration #BorderSecurity #AmericanDream
https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-shareholder-letter-manifesto-us-exceptionalism-policy-trade-ukraine-2024-4
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns the world is on fire — and plenty of people are way too bullish
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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of geopolitical tensions and expresses concern about optimism regarding inflation, interest rates, and the economy. He highlights the treacherous geopolitical era, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, US-China tensions, and terrorist attacks. Dimon also mentions the risks of recession, stagflation, food and energy price increases, borrowing costs, global fear and uncertainty, deficit spending, remilitarization, disruptions in global supply chains, the cost of climate change, and underinvestment in energy infrastructure. He cautions against overreliance on monthly inflation figures and minor rate adjustments, and warns of the potential stress on the banking system and leveraged companies if rates rise further. Dimon also discusses the transformative potential of AI and the risks associated with equity and credit markets. He concludes by stating that JPMorgan is prepared for rates of 2% to 8% or higher and emphasizes the extraordinary consequences of blockchain technology.
#JamieDimon #Jpmorgan #GeopoliticalTensions #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #Recession #Stagflation #Ai #EquityMarkets #CreditMarkets
https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-letter-war-inflation-recession-rates-economy-ai-2024-4
JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns the world is on fire — and plenty of people are way too bullish
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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of geopolitical tensions and expresses concern about optimism regarding inflation, interest rates, and the economy. He highlights the treacherous geopolitical era, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, US-China tensions, and terrorist attacks. Dimon also mentions the risks of recession, stagflation, food and energy price increases, borrowing costs, global fear and uncertainty, deficit spending, remilitarization, disruptions in global supply chains, the cost of climate change, and underinvestment in energy infrastructure. He cautions against overreliance on monthly inflation figures and minor rate adjustments, and warns of the potential stress on the banking system and leveraged companies if rates rise further. Dimon also discusses the transformative potential of AI and the risks associated with equity and credit markets. He concludes by stating that JPMorgan is prepared for rates of 2% to 8% or higher and emphasizes the extraordinary consequences of blockchain technology.
#JamieDimon #Jpmorgan #GeopoliticalTensions #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #Recession #Stagflation #Ai #EquityMarkets #CreditMarkets
https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-letter-war-inflation-recession-rates-economy-ai-2024-4
Apple layoffs are a sign Tim Cook is getting a little more serious
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Apple has laid off over 600 employees in California, including those involved in expensive research-and-development projects. The layoffs signal that Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, is making the company more focused amidst several challenges. These challenges include declining iPhone sales, particularly in China, legal battles in the US and the European Union, and criticism of its Vision Pro headset. Cook is facing perhaps his biggest challenge since becoming CEO in 2011.
#Apple #TimCook #Layoffs #R&dProjects #Iphone #China #VisionPro #LegalBattles
https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-layoffs-tim-cook-getting-serious-challenges-car-china-iphone-2024-4
The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
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The US economy is showing signs of a recession, according to economist Lakshman Achuthan. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has declined over the past year, which has historically been followed by a recession. GDP growth is slowing, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting expansion of just 2.5% in the first quarter. The US Coincident Index, which includes GDP, jobs, and retail sales data, has trended near 0% over the last two years. Hiring conditions are weakening, with the unemployment rate rising and the ECRI's Cyclical Labor Conditions index plunging nearly 50%. Non-discretionary job growth has been strong, but job growth in other sectors has been near 0%. Achuthan warns that if external support fades, it could spell trouble for the economy. Other economists, including David Rosenberg, have also warned of a coming downturn.
#UsEconomy #Recession #EconomicIndicators #GdpGrowth #JobMarket
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-hard-landing-job-market-layoffs-growth-warning-2024-4
Detroit Is Set to Host the NFL Draft a Decade After Going Bankrupt
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Detroit is preparing to host the NFL draft in April 2024, a decade after the city went bankrupt. Mayor Mike Duggan sees the event as an opportunity to reintroduce Detroit to the rest of the US and showcase the city's transformation. The 2013 bankruptcy crisis highlighted the city's financial struggles, including high unemployment rates and underfunded public services. However, since then, Detroit has made significant progress in improving its finances, paying off its creditors, and balancing its budget. The upcoming NFL draft is expected to bring hundreds of thousands of visitors to the city and provide an economic boost. Local real-estate developer Bedrock Detroit has played a central role in revitalizing downtown Detroit, and its founder, Dan Gilbert, is excited about the draft's potential impact. The success of the Detroit Lions' surprise playoff run last year has also contributed to the city's economic revival and boosted residents' pride in their city.
#Detroit #NflDraft #Bankruptcy #MikeDuggan #EconomicRevival
https://www.businessinsider.com/detroit-nfl-draft-bankruptcy-mayor-mike-duggan-jared-goff-2024-3
If you want a preview of China's economic collapse, just look at Japan
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Japan's long-comatose economy is finally showing signs of life after a real-estate implosion in the early 1990s. The country's economy spent the next three decades shrinking, but recent efforts to reboot the economy have started to yield positive results. However, China is now facing a similar property-market collapse, and experts are watching Japan's recovery closely. China's economy heavily depends on the property market, and after decades of overbuilding and speculation, the country is now dealing with a massive debt pile. While Japan's recovery was the result of decades-long efforts and careful negotiations, it will be nearly impossible for Beijing to replicate the same process. China's economic circumstances are different, and its social and political systems are not conducive to the same kind of stimulus measures that Japan implemented. Additionally, China's relationship with the rest of the world, particularly the US, is more adversarial, making it difficult for China to rely on exports to support its recovery. The success of China's recovery will depend on its ability to find trading partners and build the right relationships to support its economic growth.
#China #Japan #Economy #Recession #RealEstate #Debt #Stimulus #Exports
https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-china-real-estate-stock-market-crash-recession-xi-jinping-2024-3
How China has helped Russia and Iran evade Western sanctions, according to a think tank
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China has helped Russia and Iran evade Western sanctions on their oil exports by creating an alternative market for their restricted oil. The oil is traded in Chinese renminbi, allowing their crude-loaded tankers to bypass international maritime rules. Chinese independent refineries, known as 'teapots,' have clandestinely accepted 90% of Iran's total oil exports, while Chinese state-owned refiners have avoided Iran due to fears of sanctions. China's aid to Russia is within the bounds of safeguarding its own interests, as evidenced by three out of four Chinese banks halting payments from sanctioned Russian firms. However, if the West were to threaten to sanction large Chinese companies for importing Russian oil above the price cap, Beijing would likely comply.
#China #Russia #Iran #WesternSanctions #OilExports #AlternativeMarket #Renminbi #Teapots #SanctionedRussianFirms
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-iran-economy-outlook-help-assistance-western-sanctions-oil-2024-3
The hot new government job is AI specialist
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The Biden Administration is requiring all federal agencies to hire a chief AI specialist and beef up their AI staff. The agencies must prove that their use of AI does not harm the public, and if they can't, they must stop using AI tools. The new policy also sets guidelines for agencies to adopt, including publishing an annual inventory of their use of AI and ensuring a human oversees all AI tools. Open positions for AI specialists in the government offer salaries topping out at over $143,000. This is part of Biden's AI plan, which aims to establish transparency policies around AI.
#Government #Ai #Specialist #Biden #Harris
https://www.businessinsider.com/government-jobs-hiring-ai-specialists-white-house-biden-harris-2024-3
The inventor of a famed recession indicator says many state-level warning signs are less dire when you factor in immigration
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Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the Sahm Rule recession indicator, says that many state-level warning signs are less dire when you factor in immigration. The Sahm Rule has triggered in 20 states, indicating a recession, but Sahm argues that the increase in unemployment rates is partly due to the strength of the economy in recent years, which has attracted much-needed immigration to meet the demands of a hot labor market. Last year, net immigration into the US hit 3.3 million, a sharp rise from the average of 900,000 between 2010 and 2019. Sahm explains that immigrants boost the population but don't immediately take up jobs due to the immigration process, leading to a temporary rise in the unemployment rate. The burst of immigrant labor during the post-pandemic reopening in 2021 was critical in easing the national labor shortage and ensuring the economy could run at its pace. JPMorgan has also noted the positive impact of immigrants on the labor market and predicts that this population should keep US output up.
#RecessionIndicator #SahmRule #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #Immigration #Economy
https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-unemployment-rate-labor-market-economy-2024-3
China's industrial push risks destabilizing the global economy and watering down green-energy exports, Janet Yellen warns
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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that China's industrial push could destabilize the global economy and dilute green-energy exports. Yellen expresses concern about China's oversupply of cheap green energy products, which distorts global prices and hurts American firms and workers. China's clean energy industry contributed to 40% of the country's economic growth last year, but this has led to a substantial oversupply of solar panels, causing prices to plunge. Yellen plans to raise the issue of overcapacity during her next trip to China.
#China #IndustrialPush #GlobalEconomy #GreenenergyExports #JanetYellen
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-industrial-economic-growth-plan-global-impact-green-energy-exports-2024-3
What the Baltimore Bridge Collapse Means for the US Economy
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The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on Tuesday is a reminder that the economy remains vulnerable to sudden supply-chain shocks. While the disaster is unlikely to have a tangible effect on headline GDP growth or inflation, it could affect trade, drive up shipping and trucking costs, and affect employment in Baltimore. The port of Baltimore contributes economic activity worth $15 million a day, and a partial closure of the port could lead to direct and indirect temporary layoffs. The port is the busiest for 'roll-on/roll-off' cargo, and if it stays shut, companies face higher costs by having to reroute goods. Protection and indemnity insurance premiums are also likely to rise. The bridge's collapse is unlikely to cause similar disruption to past supply-chain crises such as the Ever Given blocking the Suez Canal in 2021. However, it highlights the need to build resilient supply chains.
#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #UsEconomy #SupplyChains #Trade #Shipping #Employment
https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-bridge-collapse-francis-scott-key-economy-growth-supply-chains-2024-3
A staggering amount of money is slipping away due to the Baltimore bridge collapse
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The Port of Baltimore is closed "until further notice" following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The closure alone will bring some $15 million of daily economic activity to a halt. The port alone contributes $15 million in daily economic activity, which will come to a near standstill. The closure will impact the railroads, the trucking industry, the regional distribution centers, commuters, and other segments of the economy. Baltimore's port is responsible for some 140,000 jobs. The port is specialized in autos and agriculture equipment, known as roll-on/roll-off cargo, as well as some bulk commodities, like coal. Container ships can largely be rerouted to other east coast locations, but it's unclear whether East Coast ports will have enough available capacity to absorb Baltimore's container volume. The costs on land will be harder to compute, though no less disruptive to the local economy. The closure of the bridge will require vehicles to take a longer, slower alternate route. The first economic priority is reopening the port, and it will likely be a long time before a replacement bridge is completed. Baltimore's outlook has sank to the bottom with its number one economic asset compromised.
#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #PortOfBaltimore #EconomicImpact
https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-port-closure-could-cost-15-million-per-day-2024-3
The Fed is going to make inflation worse with rate-cut promises, former central banker says
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Former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh warns that the Federal Reserve's promises to cut interest rates later this year could worsen inflation. Warsh points out that the stock market is booming and financial conditions may already be loosening, which spells trouble for consumers. The premonition of rate cuts has the effect of loosening financial conditions and could reignite inflation. Some Wall Street forecasters see a resurgence of inflation before it heads back to the Fed's 2% target. Consumer prices unexpectedly accelerated in February, increasing 3.2% year-over-year. Investors are currently pricing in a 71% chance of the Fed slashing interest rates by 75 basis points or more by December.
#FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #MonetaryPolicy
https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-inflation-outlook-us-economy-growth-monetary-policy-2024-3
China is coming under increasing fire from the US and EU over its Russia dealings
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Chinese banks, including Ping An Bank and Bank of Ningbo, have halted yuan transactions with Russia due to Western pressure. The US extended its sanctioning power to target Russia-friendly institutions, leading to payment difficulties for Russian clients. This move is seen as a consequence of the US and EU's increasing pressure on China. The dependency of Russia on China has grown since the Kremlin's war on Ukraine began in 2022, and bilateral trade between the two countries exploded in 2023. However, China's trade with the US is much greater than its trade with Russia. The Western pressure on China is not expected to become an obstacle to the further development of trade and economic relations between China and Russia.
#China #Russia #Us #Eu #YuanTransactions #Sanctions #Trade #WesternPressure
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-secondary-sanctions-foreign-banks-yuan-payments-trade-us-2024-3
AI Execs Are Turning to Fossil Fuels to Power Their Tech Revolution
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AI is driving a massive demand for electricity, potentially forcing AI companies to rely more on fossil fuels. The energy demands of AI may surpass the capacities of clean sources like wind and solar power. Nuclear facilities take years to build, making them an impractical option for immediate power needs. Some executives believe that the growth in AI won't impede the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, but it does complicate the process. Executives are considering natural gas as a solution to meet the energy demands of data centers.
#Ai #FossilFuels #Electricity #DataCenters #CleanEnergy #CarbonEmissions
https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-energy-electricity-data-centers-fossil-fuels-tech-revolution-2024-3
AI Execs Are Turning to Fossil Fuels to Power Their Tech Revolution
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AI is driving a massive demand for electricity, potentially forcing AI companies to rely more on fossil fuels. The energy demands of AI may surpass the capacities of clean sources like wind and solar power. Nuclear facilities take years to build, making them an impractical option for immediate power needs. Some executives believe that the growth in AI won't impede the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, but it does complicate the process. Executives are considering natural gas as a solution to meet the energy demands of data centers.
#Ai #FossilFuels #Electricity #DataCenters #CleanEnergy #CarbonEmissions
https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-energy-electricity-data-centers-fossil-fuels-tech-revolution-2024-3
Airline tickets could get more expensive amid the Boeing 737 Max fallout
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Airlines including United, Delta, Southwest, and Alaska may see higher ticket prices amid the Boeing 737 Max fallout. Executives from several US carriers expressed doubt about the Boeing 737 Max delivery schedule. Southwest expects 42% fewer jets this year and United told Boeing to stop making the Max 10. The slowdown in production has prompted airlines to cut flying, likely resulting in higher airfares. Customers may soon feel the impact of the Boeing 737 Max blowout as airlines face uncertainty about their future fleets. Southwest will only receive 46 of the previously planned 79 Max 8 variants it hoped to get this year, representing a 42% decrease. United will build an 'alternative plan' for its fleet that doesn't include the Max 10. Delta Air Lines CEO expressed doubt over the Max 10 timeline. Alaska Airlines said its schedule is 'in flux' as it evaluates Boeing's production stall. The decrease in available aircraft means airlines are forced to cut flying, likely resulting in higher airfare to make up for the lost revenue. Ryanair CEO warns of slightly higher airfares this summer due to Max delivery delays. Airlines are likely to capitalize on this year's strong demand and limit the number of seats sold at the lowest price points for peak summer travel. Low-cost competition from the likes of Frontier and Spirit Airlines will prompt the majors to offer 'basic economy' fares on some flights. Airlines may look to Airbus to grow their fleets as a remedy. Delta and United have more flexibility in their diverse fleets. Airbus is already bottlenecked and cannot physically manage the global demand for airliners.
#AirlineTickets #Boeing737Max #TicketPrices #Airfare #Airlines #United #Delta #Southwest #Alaska #DeliverySchedule #Production #Fleet #Ryanair #Airbus
https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-ticket-prices-increase-boeing-737-max-airfare-deals-2024-3
What the polls get very, very wrong about the economy
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The quality of soft data in surveys and polls about the US economy is deteriorating, leading to a distorted view of the economy. Hard data shows a strong recovery, with GDP growth, consumer spending, and the job market performing well. However, soft data, such as surveys and polls, indicate massive economic pessimism among households. The divergence between hard and soft data can be attributed to the underweighting of the experiences of certain groups, particularly lower-income and frontline workers. The decline in survey response rates and the skewing of respondents towards higher-income individuals contribute to the distorted view. This skewed perception of the economy can lead policymakers to make incorrect decisions and potentially exacerbate income inequality. To avoid this, there is a need to change how the US economy is measured and discussed.
#UsEconomy #Surveys #Polls #HardData #SoftData #EconomicPessimism #Recovery #IncomeInequality
https://www.businessinsider.com/polls-get-american-economy-wrong-make-next-recession-worse-jobs-2024-3
US Navy demoted Ronny Jackson, Trump's former White House doctor, over allegations of inappropriate behavior, says report
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Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician and current GOP congressman, was demoted by the US Navy in July 2022 following allegations of inappropriate behavior. The demotion came after a 2021 inspector general report that accused Jackson of belittling and bullying staff, engaging in alcohol-related misconduct, misusing Ambien, and making sexual and denigrating statements to a female subordinate. Jackson continues to refer to himself as a retired rear admiral, despite the demotion. The demotion would likely result in a loss of over $15,000 in annual pension payouts. Jackson served as physician to the President from 2013 to 2018 and is a Republican congressman for Texas since 2021.
#RonnyJackson #UsNavy #WhiteHouse #InappropriateBehavior #Demotion
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-demotes-white-house-doctor-ronny-jackson-bad-behavior-2024-3
How the Canadian mortgage model could help unfreeze the housing market
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Experts suggest that adopting the Canadian mortgage model could help unfreeze the US housing market. The US housing market has experienced a decline in listings and transactions as homeowners are reluctant to sell due to the fear of losing their cheap 30-year mortgage rates. Portable mortgages, which allow homeowners to keep their low mortgage rates when they move, could potentially increase overall inventory and transaction volumes. However, implementing portable mortgages may be challenging, as it could require compensation for lenders and investors holding non-transferable mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, homeowners may be deterred from selling if they face additional fees or a complex porting process. Portable mortgages could also increase the risk to mortgage lenders and potentially lead to higher mortgage rates. The introduction of portable mortgages would require the involvement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but currently, there are no indications that they are considering this option.
#Mortgages #HousingMarket #AffordabilityCrisis #Inventory #TransactionVolumes
https://www.businessinsider.com/portable-mortgages-interest-rates-housing-market-affordability-crisis-frozen-sellers-2024-3
Finally, Bob Iger gets it: People want to watch good movies
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Disney CEO Bob Iger is focusing on producing quality films and has squashed projects that weren't strong enough. He stated that he personally watches films three to five times with the team and creates a culture of excellence and respect. Iger admitted that the company prioritized quantity over quality in the past but now understands that quantity can be a negative when it comes to quality. He denied that audiences are fatigued over certain movie genres and stated that they want great films. The company is scaling down on the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and releasing fewer movies. Iger cited the recent Christopher Nolan hit 'Oppenheimer' as an example of the type of great film Disney wants to produce.
#BobIger #Disney #Films #Quality #Marvel #Mcu
https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-iger-disney-marvel-movies-morgan-stanley-event-2024-3
10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024, according to a chief economist
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Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok believes that the US Federal Reserve will not cut rates in 2024 due to several factors. These include higher inflation readings, a resilient job market, and easing financial conditions. Slok argues that the US economy is not slowing down and that the Fed pivot has provided a strong tailwind to growth. He offers 10 reasons to support his view, including the economy being too hot, underlying inflation trends moving higher, a hot labor market, small businesses planning to raise prices, increasing wages, rising rent and home prices, and easing financial conditions. Slok points to record-high debt issuance, rising IPO activity, and the stock market reaching new all-time highs as evidence of further economic strength ahead.
#UsFederalReserve #InterestRates #UsEconomy
https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-forecast-us-economy-outlook-inflation-torsten-slok-2024-3
Ukraine's war has shown the US its expensive missiles aren't as effective as it thought: report
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The Ukraine war has revealed that the US's expensive missiles are not as effective as previously believed, according to a report by The Washington Post. The conflict has demonstrated that US-made missiles, such as the Himars or Excalibur shells, guided by GPS, are vulnerable to Russian electronic jamming. Russian electronic warfare units have been able to scramble the signals of these missiles, causing them to go off course. In contrast, Ukraine has been using older artillery guided by sensors and drones, which are not as susceptible to electronic warfare tactics. The US is now revising its assumptions about the effectiveness of expensive, precision-guided weapons in winning wars. Lessons from the Ukraine war will inform the US' next National Defense Strategy, with a focus on ground warfare, information warfare, and long-range fire capability.
#Ukraine #Us #Missiles #Warfare #ElectronicWarfare
https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-showed-us-precision-missiles-not-effective-russia-report-2024-2
US Economy Facing Credit Card Crisis As Debt Soars
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US consumers are struggling with soaring credit card debt and rising interest rates. The number of Americans seeking counseling for credit card debt has increased, particularly among young adults in their 20s. Total household debt in the US has risen by over 24% since 2019, with credit card balances growing the fastest. Delinquent credit card balances have more than doubled in the past two years. Interest rates on credit cards have also increased, with the average American spending $1,140 per year on credit card interest and fees alone. The use of buy now, pay later programs has also contributed to the credit card crisis. While the US economy has avoided a recession, there are concerns that the soft landing could be rougher than expected.
#CreditCardDebt #InterestRates #HouseholdDebt #BuyNowPayLater #Recession
https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-debt-interest-rates-consolidation-economy-recession-soft-landing-2024-2
ChatGPT Was Producing Unhinged Answers — and No One Seems to Know Why
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OpenAI's chatbot, ChatGPT, has been responding to users with nonsensical answers. Users shared screenshots of ChatGPT responding in gibberish and Spanglish. OpenAI acknowledged the issue and stated that it was investigating the unexpected responses. Speculation about the cause of the problem includes suggestions of hacked systems or hardware issues. Some users believe the issue may be due to corrupted weights in the AI model. The incident highlights the need for more transparency in AI technologies. OpenAI has not provided further comment on the matter.
#Openai #Chatgpt #Ai #Chatbot
https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-giving-users-unhinged-answers-no-one-knows-why-openai-2024-2
Sam Altman Just Reminded Everyone Why OpenAI Is Leading the Pack
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman unveiled a text-to-video model called Sora. Sora can create high-fidelity videos up to a minute long from text prompts. Altman engaged with users on social media, taking prompt requests for videos they'd like to see created by Sora. The release of Sora could pose threats to the creative industry and raise concerns about the potential misuse of generative AI. Altman's strategy of showcasing Sora's abilities through direct engagement with users contrasts with Google's approach of sharing updates via a blog post. Altman's hype around Sora is gaining attention and overshadowing Google's achievements.
#Openai #Ai #Sora #SamAltman #Text-to-videoModel
https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-openai-video-text-model-creator-sora-leading-google-2024-2
The US economy is booming — but Japan and the UK just slipped into recession. Here's why.
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Japan and the UK have slipped into recession, while the US economy is booming. Japan's economy shrank by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2023, following a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter. The weakening yen and an aging and shrinking population are contributing factors. The UK's economy contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023, marking its second consecutive quarterly contraction. The country is facing a cost-of-living crisis, weak spending, and the impact of leaving the European Union in 2016. The recession news is particularly challenging for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is preparing for a general election later this year.
#UsEconomy #Recession #Japan #Uk #Gdp #Yen #Population #Cost-of-livingCrisis #Brexit #RishiSunak
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-japan-uk-low-growth-yen-pound-rishi-sunak-2024-2
A soft landing is now 'most unlikely scenario' for the US, Apollo's chief economist says
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A soft landing is now 'most unlikely scenario' for the US, with a less than 50% chance of it happening, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk says. The economy is in a fragile equilibrium between easing financial conditions and the lagged effects of the Fed's rate hikes. Sløk believes there is now a higher than 50% chance of either a hard landing or no landing. The easing financial conditions have strengthened the job market, but the lagged effects of the Fed's rate hikes are slowing down consumers, firms, and bank lending. The economy is currently in a precarious balance between these two forces.
#UsEconomy #SoftLanding #Recession
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-federal-reserve-interest-rates-cuts-soft-landing-us-economy-2024-2
Tunnel complex with rows of computer servers discovered under UN aid agency HQ in Gaza, reports say
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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) discovered a Hamas complex under a UN aid agency's headquarters in Gaza. The IDF found the entrance to a tunnel near a school run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which was connected to a tunnel underneath the agency's main HQ in Gaza City. The tunnel contained electrical infrastructure and rows of computer servers powered by the UNRWA's building. Journalists from outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, visited the site. The UNRWA called for an independent inquiry into the reports. The agency has faced accusations of staff members being linked to Hamas attacks on Israel. The UNRWA plays a key role in facilitating aid delivery and providing services in Gaza. Israel's attacks on Gaza have caused a humanitarian crisis, with a high population facing food insecurity and displacement.
#Gaza #Hamas #Idf #Unrwa #Israel
https://www.businessinsider.com/tunnel-complex-computer-servers-discovered-un-aid-hq-gaza-idf-2024-2
US CEOs say they are feeling optimistic about the economy for the first time in 2 years
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US CEOs are feeling upbeat about the state of the US economy, with optimism outweighing pessimism for the first time in two years, according to The Conference Board. The latest Measure of CEO Confidence showed a reading of 53 in the first quarter of 2024, up from 46 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Factors contributing to the positive outlook include reduced inflation, a robust labor market, and the potential for rate cuts. However, CEOs remain cautious about risks ahead, including the 2024 US presidential race, increased regulations, and elevated interest rates. Major global concerns for business include ongoing conflicts, deglobalization, and US-China tensions. CEOs also highlighted potential positive developments such as resolution to military conflicts, AI advancements, and potential rate cuts.
#UsCeos #UsEconomy #Optimism #TheConferenceBoard
https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ceo-economy-optimistic-first-time-two-year-inflation-labor-2024-2
The 'zombie economy' is haunting the stock market and stoking uncertainty, strategist says
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The stock market has been jittery due to the presence of 'zombie companies' with unsustainable business models. The chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, Tony Dwyer, referred to this as a 'zombie economy' that has contributed to market volatility as interest rates have risen. The high costs of debt have exposed cracks in the commercial real estate sector, leading to a recent decline in New York Bancorp's stock. Despite the uncertainty, the US economy has shown strong GDP growth and jobs data. Dwyer suggests that lower interest rates would be a solution to the zombie economy. However, a rate cut in March is unlikely, but there is a 55% chance of a rate cut in May according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
#ZombieEconomy #StockMarket #Uncertainty #InterestRates #CommercialRealEstate #Debt
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-stock-market-debt-real-estate-fed-rates-zombie-2024-2
Maryland Senate Candidate Angela Alsobrooks: 'First Chances' Will Boost US
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Maryland Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks emphasizes the importance of 'first chances' in boosting societal outcomes and economic growth. She believes that investing in humans is crucial for true economic opportunity, citing examples such as a child tax credit to help families afford daycare. Alsobrooks, a former prosecutor, is running to become Maryland's first Black senator and wants to address issues like cost-of-living, affordable housing, and public safety. She also advocates for the elimination of the filibuster in the Senate to overcome legislative blockages. If elected, Alsobrooks would potentially be part of a small cohort of Black women in the upper chamber.
#MarylandSenate #AngelaAlsobrooks #EconomicGrowth #FirstChances #Filibuster
https://www.businessinsider.com/maryland-alsobrooks-interview-senate-campaign-economy-first-chances-filibuster-2024-2
Giraffes Might Be the Next Banned Thing on China's Social Media
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Giraffes might be the next thing banned on China's social media. A US Embassy post about giraffes became a gathering place for online dissent in China, with comments complaining about China's economy. China's blue-chip index, the CSI 300, has been tumbling amid weakening confidence in consumer spending. Weibo's heavy moderation and censorship often mean Chinese users rely on sarcasm and veiled references to express their discontent. Winnie the Pooh and Peppa Pig have been banned from social media in China. Plain old giraffes haven't been outright banned from Weibo, but some giraffe-related hashtags have been blocked. Several posts discussing the giraffe censorship remain on the platform.
#China #SocialMedia #Censorship #Giraffes #Weibo
https://www.businessinsider.com/giraffes-might-be-next-banned-thing-on-china-social-media-2024-2
Alternative School Has No Grades, Tests, Homework; Here's How It Works
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Adrienne Bergthold sent her son, Jasper, to the Arts and Ideas Sudbury School, a K-12 school based on the philosophy of allowing kids to make their own decisions about education. The school has no grades, tests, or homework. Students learn by playing and pursuing their interests, with staff members guiding them. The school follows the Sudbury School educational philosophy, where students make decisions about their own education and participate in making and enforcing school rules. There is no formal curriculum or classrooms, and students have the freedom to play outside, work on projects, or attend workshops on topics they are interested in. The school also offers field trips and activities organized by the students. The only requirement is that students attend school for five consecutive hours, including the core hours of 11-3 p.m. To receive a diploma, students write and defend a thesis about how they have prepared for the real world. Jasper graduated in 2023 and is currently taking a gap year before attending college. The school provides a stress-free environment for students to fall in love with learning and encourages interaction between students of different ages. The author believes that the school gave her son a happy childhood and helped him grow into a secure adult.
#AlternativeEducation #SudburySchool #Grades #Tests #Homework
https://www.businessinsider.com/alternative-sudbury-school-no-grades-tests-homework-2024-2
Chief AI officer is tech's hottest new role — but finding workers with the right skills is tough
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The role of Chief AI Officer is becoming increasingly important as companies seek guidance on how to use AI to save time and boost productivity. However, finding the right candidate for the role can be challenging. Technical skills alone are not enough, as the ideal Chief AI Officer should have a wide array of responsibilities, including understanding large language models and how to apply them across the entire business. Strategic thinking and leadership skills are also crucial. Hiring a Chief AI Officer can be difficult due to the newness of the field and the need for a candidate with a breadth of capabilities. Companies that are serious about AI adoption should consider investing in this role to avoid being left behind.
https://www.businessinsider.com/chief-ai-officer-tech-hot-role-skills-strategy-machine-learning-2024-2
Top US Treasury Officials Will Travel to China to Ease Economic Tensions
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The US Treasury is sending an envoy of department officials to China this week to discuss a range of economy issues, including practices around government subsidies and concerns about flooding the market with cheap products. The discussions will also touch on China's status as one of the world's largest creditors to emerging markets economies and ways to help countries with their sovereign debt loads to allow them to invest in climate initiatives. The talks will be led by Jay Shambaugh, the department's Under Secretary for International Affairs, and could lay the groundwork for Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen's second trip to China. Officials from the two countries will also discuss joint efforts to combat climate change. This meeting will be the first in Beijing for the economic working group established last September.
#UsTreasury #China #EconomicTensions #GovernmentSubsidies #CheapProducts #Creditors #EmergingMarkets #SovereignDebt #ClimateInitiatives #JayShambaugh #JanetYellen #ClimateChange
https://www.businessinsider.com/top-us-treasury-officials-delegations-travel-china-ease-economic-tensions-2024-2
There's little reason to be optimistic about a soft landing this year as the 'runway is in an earthquake zone,' Harvard economist says
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Harvard economist Ken Rogoff warns that there is little reason to be optimistic about a soft landing for the economy this year. He refers to the runway for the economy as being in an 'earthquake zone' in 2024. Rogoff points to signs of weakness in the global economy, including China's economic slowdown and rising government debt levels. He also highlights the potential for lackluster economic growth in Europe due to the cost of supporting Ukraine in its war with Russia and protectionist trade rhetoric. In the US, the national debt continues to surge and interest rates are expected to stay higher-for-longer, posing a tough balancing act for the Federal Reserve. New York Fed economists are pricing in a 63% chance of a recession by the end of the year. However, investors are still expecting falling inflation and lower interest rates. The article concludes that a soft landing means little if the runway is in an earthquake zone.
#Economy #Recession #SoftLanding #GlobalEconomy #EconomicGrowth #InterestRates #FederalReserve
https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-us-economy-outlook-soft-landing-earthquake-harvard-ken-rogoff-2024-2
Hundreds of business execs just ranked Elon Musk America's most overrated CEO
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Elon Musk has been ranked as America's most overrated CEO by a survey of hundreds of business executives. Musk received 399 votes, while Disney CEO Bob Iger came in second with 302 votes. Microsoft chief Satya Nadella was ranked the most underrated CEO, receiving 274 votes. Musk has been criticized for setting overly ambitious targets and pushing back SpaceX's timeline for sending humans to Mars. Representatives for Musk did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
#ElonMusk #Ceo #Ranking #Overrated #Survey
https://www.businessinsider.com/business-executives-ranked-elon-musk-america-most-overrated-ceo-2024-2
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