Meet the top 3 candidates Trump is considering for Treasury secretary
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President-elect Donald Trump is considering three candidates for Treasury Secretary: Kevin Warsh, a former Morgan Stanley banker and Federal Reserve governor; Marc Rowan, billionaire investor and co-founder of Apollo Global Management; and Scott Bessent, founder of Key Square Capital Management. Trump recently appointed Howard Lutnick to lead the Commerce Department, removing him from Treasury consideration. Warsh, 54, has been involved in Trump's transition team and is known for his hawkish views on inflation and government spending. Rowan, 62, has nearly $700 billion in assets under management and advocates for significant economic reforms. Bessent, 62, has a history of supporting Trump and has proposed reducing government borrowing and reforming Biden's policies. Lutnick, 63, has been a long-time ally of Trump and praised tariff-based economic policies.

#Trump #TreasurySecretary #KevinWarsh #MarcRowan #ScottBessent #HowardLutnick #CommerceDepartment #EconomicPolicy #CabinetPicks #2024Election

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-treasury-kevin-warsh-marc-rowan-howard-lutnick-scott-bessent-2024-11


Musk's DOGE wants to 'delete' entire government agencies. Here's where the most people are employed and what they make.
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Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy co-lead the DOGE commission aimed at cutting federal agencies; over 2 million Americans work for the US government; the Department of Veterans Affairs employs nearly 500,000; the Department of Education has over 4,000 employees; the Treasury Department has over 100,000, with 94,000 in the IRS; average salaries are high in most departments; Ramaswamy stated on Fox News that mass reductions are expected; Trump has previously targeted the Department of Education for closure; Musk mentioned potential severance pay of up to two years for affected workers; the US spent $6.75 trillion in fiscal year 2024; mandatory spending programs like Medicare and Social Security are harder to cut.

#ElonMusk #VivekRamaswamy #Doge #GovernmentAgencies #FederalEmployment #BudgetCuts #Trump #DepartmentOfEducation #SeverancePay #UsSpending

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-many-federal-government-jobs-pay-salaries-elon-musk-doge-2024-11


Trump picks up Florida and Texas, dashing Dems' hopes of an Election Day pick-up
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Trump declared winner in 16 states including Florida and Texas; Harris wins 9 states; key swing states Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin remain uncalled; Trump leads in Georgia with 53% to Harris' 47%; abortion rights and marijuana legalization referenda fail in Florida; Gov. Ron DeSantis claims victory over progressive measures; Trump projected to win Texas, but Colin Allred trails Ted Cruz by 6 points; Loudon County in Virginia shows a shift to the right; Josh Stein wins North Carolina gubernatorial race against Trump ally Mark Robinson; polls closed in key states with varying counting times; Harris needs to win Georgia, North Carolina, and Michigan for a projected 273 electoral votes.

#Trump #Harris #Election2024 #Florida #Texas #Georgia #NorthCarolina #AbortionRights #MarijuanaLegalization #ElectoralCollege

https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11


Trump Said He Called Musk for Helene Help — FEMA Was Already on It
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Donald Trump claimed he spoke with Elon Musk about deploying Starlink satellites for Hurricane Helene relief; however, FEMA had already coordinated the deployment of 40 Starlink systems to North Carolina on Sunday, September 29, 2024. Trump made his comments during a speech in Valdosta, Georgia, stating that residents lacked communication. White House spokesperson Andrew Bates confirmed FEMA's prior arrangements, stating that 140 satellites were being sent to assist with communication infrastructure repairs. FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell made the decision to deploy the satellites, and Trump was not involved in this process. The storm resulted in at least 119 fatalities.

#Trump #ElonMusk #Starlink #Fema #HurricaneHelene #NorthCarolina #Communication #ReliefEfforts #DisasterResponse #Politics

https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-elon-musk-starlink-hurricane-helene-fema-2024-9


Dockworker Strike Set to Begin Tuesday, Threatening Supply Chains
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A dockworker strike by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) is scheduled to start on October 1, 2024, due to stalled wage negotiations. The strike could disrupt imports and exports across industries, affecting essential goods like medicine and holiday gifts. The ILA represents 85,000 members and has not seen a coast-wide strike since 1977. Experts warn that even a two-week strike could lead to supply chain disruptions lasting until 2025, with potential daily losses of $640 million at the Port of New York and New Jersey. The United States Maritime Alliance (USMX) has been unable to resume negotiations, and trade groups are urging the Biden administration to intervene. The strike could lead to price hikes for consumers and significant delays in shipping.

#DockworkerStrike #SupplyChain #Ila #Usmx #WageNegotiations #ImportExport #Economy #ShippingDelays #HolidayGifts #Pharmaceuticals

https://www.businessinsider.com/dockworker-strike-what-will-be-impacted-prices-inflation-martime-longshoremen-2024-9


Current Mortgage Trends: Are Mortgage Rates Going Down?
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Mortgage rates are expected to fall in 2024, but not to the lows seen in 2020 and 2021; Average 30-year mortgage rates are expected to end the year between 6.6% and 6.7%; Inflation and Fed hikes pushed mortgage rates up to a 20-year high in 2023 and 2024; Mortgage rates fluctuate based on factors such as investor demand, inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical uncertainty; Major forecasts predict mortgage rates to fall in 2024 and continue to drop in 2025; Mortgage rates are not likely to go back down to 3% anytime soon; Homebuyers may consider buying now and refinancing later to avoid increased competition when rates drop.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Inflation #FederalReserve #Homebuyers #Refinancing

https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/mortgages/will-mortgage-rates-go-down-this-year


Looser regulation would allow business-led growth to relieve the 'massive' deficit burden, BlackRock chief Larry Fink says
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Larry Fink, CEO of BlackRock, argues that looser regulation is necessary for business-led growth to relieve the 'massive' deficit burden in the US. Fink believes that the private sector must be unrestrained and lead growth to lower the debt burden. He warns that the rising deficit trend in the US is unaffordable and will burden future generations. Fink suggests that growth opportunities in digitization and decarbonization can help alleviate the debt problem, but the government needs to loosen regulation and give businesses greater reign. He does not endorse either presidential candidate as the solution to the deficit issue, but emphasizes the need for regulatory relief.

#LarryFink #Blackrock #UsDeficit #BusinessRegulation #EconomicGrowth

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-deficit-debt-crisis-regulation-business-trump-biden-fink-7


Trump's trade and tax policies are the new hot-button topic dividing economists and market experts
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Donald Trump's proposed trade and tax policies have sparked a divide among economists and market experts. Trump plans to raise trade barriers and replace income tax with tariffs, which has drawn criticism from many economists who warn of inflation and trade wars. However, other experts believe that these policies will be watered down in Congress and will have fewer repercussions. The base argument against Trump's fiscal platform is that tariffs are inflationary and would lead to price hikes and global trade wars. On the other hand, some experts believe that the impact of Trump's policies will not be as severe as feared and that Congress will likely moderate his extreme pursuits. The outcome of Trump's policies will depend on the actions of Congress, and economists have differing views on the potential inflationary effects of his proposed tariffs.

#DonaldTrump #TradePolicies #TaxPolicies #Economists #MarketExperts #Inflation #TradeWars #Congress

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7


A NASA Astronaut Stuck in Space Has a Good Feeling She'll Be Back Safe
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NASA astronauts Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore are stuck on the International Space Station (ISS) due to delays in their return to Earth via Boeing's Starliner. They were supposed to stay for only 8-10 days but have been stuck on the ISS for over a month with no return date scheduled. Despite the delays, the astronauts remain upbeat and optimistic, expressing confidence that the spacecraft will bring them home safely. The return was delayed on June 21 to assess issues on board the Starliner, including problems with the spacecraft's reaction control system thrusters. Williams and Wilmore are not complaining about the extra time on board and are enjoying their time on the ISS. Williams spent 322 days in space before the Starliner project, while Wilmore spent 178 days. Boeing's Starliner is the company's major push to break into the commercial human-spaceflight business, but it lags behind SpaceX in sending astronauts to space since 2020.

#Nasa #Astronauts #InternationalSpaceStation #BoeingStarliner #Spaceflight

https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-astronaut-boeing-starliner-good-feeling-be-back-safe-2024-7


NASA Says No Plans to Use SpaceX to Rescue Stranded Astronauts
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NASA has stated that it currently has no plans to use SpaceX's Dragon spacecraft to rescue two astronauts stranded on the International Space Station (ISS). The astronauts, Suni Williams and Butch Wilmore, are currently stuck on the ISS due to issues with Boeing's Starliner spacecraft. While a SpaceX rescue mission has not been discussed, NASA official Steve Stich mentioned that they have considered the possibility in case the situation worsens. SpaceX's Dragon capsule is already docked at the ISS, but there are no plans to use it for the rescue mission at this time. Boeing's Starliner has experienced several issues, including helium leaks and thruster malfunctions, which have delayed the return of the astronauts. If SpaceX were to rescue the astronauts, it would be a blow to Boeing, which is competing with SpaceX in the commercial crewed spacecraft market. Boeing has faced criticism from Elon Musk, who has accused the company of having too many non-technical managers. The issues with Starliner add to Boeing's recent challenges, including scrutiny over its safety culture and legal troubles related to the 737 Max crashes. NASA and Boeing have declared Starliner safe and are working to analyze data before committing to the final undock and return of the astronauts.

#Nasa #Spacex #Boeing #InternationalSpaceStation #Astronauts #DragonSpacecraft #StarlinerSpacecraft

https://www.businessinsider.com/nasa-no-plans-to-use-spacex-dragon-rescue-stranded-astronauts-2024-7


June Job Growth Surpassed the Expected Gain - Business Insider
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The US economy added 206,000 jobs in June, surpassing the forecast of 191,000. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose from 4.0% in May to 4.1% in June. Job openings rose slightly from 7.9 million in April to 8.1 million in May. The revised job growth for May was 218,000 and for April was 108,000. Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz commented on the remarkable decrease in inflation rate while the unemployment rate remained high. The labor market showed better balance in May with steady job openings and low separations. Elizabeth Renter, senior economist at NerdWallet, suggested that the current labor market supports continued inflation moderation and a possible rate cut in September.

#UsEconomy #JobGrowth #UnemploymentRate

https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-rate-job-growth-june-economic-data-2024-7


Trump lied and misled. He still won the debate against Biden.
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The first presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden took place, with Trump firing off lies and misleading statements about his record. Despite this, Biden struggled to find his footing during the debate, raising concerns about his age. Trump made false claims about the US economy, the US-Mexico border, and the US's trade deficit with China. CNN's fact-checker estimated that Trump made false or misleading statements 30 times, while Biden made nine. Biden's raspy voice and stumbling through his answers did little to convince viewers that he is fit for the job. The true impacts of the debate will be hard to determine since it was held so far from the election. The article provides analysis and quotes from experts on the debate.

#Trump #Biden #PresidentialDebate #UsEconomy #UsmexicoBorder #China #Factchecking

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-lied-biden-lost-who-won-first-presidential-debate-2024-6


A Nobel Prize-winning economist breaks down exactly how Trump's proposed policies could make inflation worse
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Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz and other economists are concerned about the potential inflationary impact of Trump's proposed policies. They believe that a second Trump administration would have a negative impact on the US economy and could lead to higher inflation, worse inequality, and a potential economic slowdown. Stiglitz points to factors such as large increases in tariffs, large decreases in taxes, drastic reductions in immigration, and the repeal of the Inflation Reduction Act as potential contributors to inflation. He also highlights Trump's tax policy as one that could exacerbate inequality. The economists recently signed a letter expressing their concerns about a second Trump term. The Trump campaign has disagreed with the economists' views, stating that Americans know they cannot afford four more years of Bidenomics.

#Economy #Trump #Inflation #Inequality #Tariffs #Taxes #Immigration

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-presidency-policies-inflation-economy-americans-joseph-stiglitz-letter-2024-6


An ex-Wall Street banker who's visited every country shares 6 places where you can spend less and still travel in luxury
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Lee Abbamonte, an ex-Wall Street banker who has visited every country in the world, shares six countries where Americans can spend less and still travel in luxury. His top destinations include Southeast Asia, specifically Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia, where luxury hotels can cost under $100 a night and street food is affordable and delicious. Abbamonte also recommends Argentina, particularly Patagonia, for its outdoor activities and affordable food and accommodation. Ethiopia is another affordable destination, offering world-class cuisine and hotels. Lastly, Abbamonte suggests visiting Japan, which currently has a favorable exchange rate for the US dollar. He believes Japan offers unique experiences and is worth the higher prices compared to Southeast Asia.

#Travel #LuxuryTravel #SoutheastAsia #Thailand #Vietnam #Cambodia #Argentina #Patagonia #Ethiopia #Japan

https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-where-luxury-vacations-cost-less-us-dollar-is-strong-2024-6


What happened to Robert Shinn, the pastor who's the focus of Netflix's 'Dancing for the Devil: The 7M TikTok Cult'
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Robert Shinn is the focus of Netflix's 'Dancing for the Devil: The 7M TikTok Cult'; He is the founder of the Shekinah Church and the owner of 7M Films Inc.; Shinn has been accused of sexual abuse and coercion by five people; The docuseries focuses on TikTok star Miranda Derrick and her experience with Shinn's church; Former Shekinah members have accused Shinn of brainwashing and controlling their finances; Shinn is facing a civil lawsuit filed by former members, which goes to trial in 2025; Shinn's wife denies the accusations and claims they are attempting to extort her husband; Shinn currently resides in Los Angeles; The Shekinah Church is still operating today

#RobertShinn #Netflix #DancingForTheDevil #7mTiktokCult #ShekinahChurch #Tiktok #MirandaDerrick

https://www.businessinsider.com/robert-shinn-where-7m-tiktok-cult-dancing-for-the-devil-2024-6


More rich countries worried about the dollar want to buy gold
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Central banks from advanced economies, including China and its allies, are planning to buy more gold to hedge risks such as inflation and economic shocks. A World Gold Council survey found that 29% of 70 central banks are planning to buy gold over the next 12 months, with 15% of those in advanced economies and 40% of emerging market central banks planning to do so. The central banks' key reasons for gold purchases include rebalancing reserves and hedging against risks such as rising inflation, US dollar exposure, and market instability. Additionally, 56% of central banks from advanced economies expect the dollar's share of global reserves to fall over the next five years. The decline in the US dollar's share of global reserves is referred to as 'stealth erosion' by the International Monetary Fund.

#Gold #CentralBanks #UsDollar #Reserves #Inflation #EconomicShocks

https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-rich-countries-advanced-economies-buy-gold-dollar-share-reserves-2024-6


Untrained staff at Amazon's One Medical miss urgent issues like blood pressure spikes and clots, according to new report
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Elderly patients of Amazon's One Medical are struggling to get adequate care, with call center employees missing major issues like blood pressure spikes and clots. The call center is staffed by contractors who receive about two weeks of medical training before responding to patient concerns. They have missed urgent issues like blood pressure spikes and sudden stomach pain with blood in one patient's stool. Instead of referring patients to urgent or emergency care, the call center staff scheduled future appointments, potentially overlooking life-threatening situations. Medical staff at the company flagged more than a dozen incidents as requiring immediate escalation. One Medical has faced patient privacy and care issues since Amazon's acquisition in 2022. Amazon developed a centralized team to respond to One Medical's senior patients in January, resulting in increased access to appointments. Since the acquisition, One Medical has reported losses, layoffs, and corporate restructuring.

#Amazon #OneMedical #PatientSafety #ElderlyPatients #CallCenter #MedicalTraining #BloodPressure #Clots #PatientCare #UrgentCare #EmergencyCare #PatientPrivacy #CorporateRestructuring

https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-one-medical-missing-urgent-patient-safety-issues-report-2024-6


How the economy will change under Trump vs Biden
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Polls show that the economy is the most important issue in the election. President Joe Biden has a good record, but Americans are still angry over high prices. Former President Donald Trump is hoping that inflation-related angst will push him back into office. A May ABC News-Ipsos poll found that nearly 9 in 10 Americans said that either the economy generally or "inflation, meaning raising prices" was the most important issue in determining their vote for this November. Biden is proud of his economic record. Unemployment has remained under 4% for the longest stretch since the 1960s. More than 15 million jobs have been created since he took office. The US economy is expected to grow at double the rate of its G7 peers, according to the International Monetary Fund. Trump loved touting new Wall Street records; under Biden, the Dow hit over 40,000 for the first time. Trump has not yet provided many specifics on what he would do with a second term. Polls show that voters view his presidency much more favorably now. Trump has repeatedly pointed out that inflation was far lower (under 2% on average) during his time in office. Some of the stock market and unemployment records that were set under Trump pre-COVID-19 have been surpassed by Biden.

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-vote-economy-top-issue-2024-biden-trump-plans


Elon Musk has been draining Tesla's AI talent dry, shareholders allege in lawsuit
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Tesla shareholders have filed a lawsuit against Elon Musk, accusing him of diverting critical AI talent and resources away from Tesla and into his new AI-focused company, xAI. The shareholders claim that Musk has been poaching AI-focused employees from Tesla and redirecting critical Nvidia GPUs from Tesla to xAI. They also allege that Tesla's board has failed to stop Musk's actions. Musk has previously emphasized the importance of building AI capabilities for Tesla's future growth. Tesla's stock has dropped more than 25% this year, and critics argue that Musk's alleged actions have contributed to the decline.

#Tesla #ElonMusk #Ai #Lawsuit

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-shareholders-elon-musk-lawsuit-ai-2024-6


Tim Cook says it's a 'significant possibility' people use their iPhones less because of AI
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Apple CEO Tim Cook believes that the integration of AI into Apple devices may result in people using their iPhones less. Cook stated that as Apple Intelligence continues to improve, previously time-consuming tasks may take less time. The announcement was made at Apple's WWDC event, where the company unveiled new AI features for iPhones, iPads, and Macs. Some of the updates include a new and improved Siri, integration across apps, systemwide Writing Tools, and a revamped Photos app. Cook emphasized that Apple's goal is not to keep people on their devices all day, but rather to empower them to do things they couldn't do otherwise. Apple has also added features like Screen Time and Focus settings to help users be more intentional with their device usage.

#TimCook #Apple #Iphone #Ai #Wwdc

https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-cook-people-may-use-iphones-less-because-ai-2024-6


Jack Dorsey Gave $10M to Nostr Dev Devoted to Fascist 'Guru' - Business Insider
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Jack Dorsey, co-founder of Twitter, gave $10 million to a project called Nostr and 14 bitcoins to Nostr's anonymous founder, Giovanni Torres Parra. Parra is a Brazilian man who is a follower of far-right conspiracy theorist Olavo de Carvalho. Nostr is a decentralized social-media protocol with a small user base of cryptocurrency and privacy enthusiasts. The funding comes as Silicon Valley's rightward political drift becomes more apparent. Parra, known pseudonymously as Fiatjaf, is a developer who has built webpages devoted to disseminating the work of Olavo de Carvalho. Parra's political views were shaped by the Austrian school of economics and his frustration with Twitter's increasing censorship. Dorsey's funding went to the nonprofit Open Sats Initiative, which funds bitcoin-related projects including Nostr. The donations to Open Sats are among the largest gifts Dorsey has made as part of his #StartSmall grantmaking initiative.

#JackDorsey #Nostr #GiovanniTorresParra #OlavoDeCarvalho #Twitter #SocialMedia #Funding #DecentralizedProtocol

https://www.businessinsider.com/jack-dorsey-fiatjaf-nostr-donation-2024-6


We're on track for a soft economic landing, but it still feels like the economy stinks
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The US economy is on track for a soft economic landing, with recent data showing inflation and the labor market cooling. However, many Americans still feel that the economy is not improving due to inflation levels still being above pre-pandemic levels and a slowing job market. Interest-rate cuts, which could come as soon as September, may help improve the situation. Former Fed economist Claudia Sahm believes the Fed is the biggest risk to a soft landing. Despite the positive signs, some experts, such as French bank SocGen and UBS, still see red flags and predict a potential downturn. In other news, another company has joined the $3 trillion club, Jack Dorsey donated $10 million to a Twitter alternative, and a new NBA deal could affect NBC and Peacock shows.

#UsEconomy #SoftEconomicLanding #Inflation #LaborMarket #InterestRates #JobMarket #Fed #Recession #StockMarket #Nvidia #JackDorsey #Nba

https://www.businessinsider.com/soft-landing-economy-us-on-track-data-cooling-interest-rates-2024-6


Upgrading to Premium Economy on 13-Hour Flight for $300, Worth It
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The article discusses the author's experience of upgrading to premium economy on a 13-hour United Airlines flight from Japan to the US. The upgrade cost $300 and was worth it for trips over 10 hours. The author enjoyed the added comfort, space, and amenities in premium economy. They were able to sit near the front of the plane, which allowed for a quick exit upon landing. The upgraded seat included amenities such as noise-canceling headphones, a pillow, a blanket, and a pouch with various essentials. The extra legroom and footrest provided comfort during the flight. The larger entertainment system made watching movies and TV easier. The food service in premium economy was slightly elevated, with better meals served on real plates with cloth napkins and real silverware. The author concludes that the $300 upgrade was worth it for long-haul flights over 10 hours and would consider upgrading again in the future.

#UnitedAirlines #PremiumEconomy #FlightUpgrade #Comfort #Amenities

https://www.businessinsider.com/united-airlines-premium-economy-upgrade-japan-us-worth-it-2024-5


Baby boomers have been America's secret weapon for fending off recession
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Baby boomers are spending heavily on services, boosting payrolls and income, repelling recession. The generation has started to retire with a record $76 trillion in net worth and is spending on restaurants, cruises, traveling, and healthcare. This spending has expanded the service industries' payrolls, boosting real incomes and fueling more spending. While the goods sector has shown signs of a growth recession, goods spending remains at a record high. Retiree consumption is one of many recession-canceling factors. The Federal Reserve's aggressive hiking cycle and flashing recessionary indicators were initially expected to cause a downturn, but the problems typically brought on by tight monetary policy have been largely overcome. Higher rates strengthened consumer resiliency, and the baby-boomer focus on service spending may have deformed indicators, making things look gloomier than they are.

#BabyBoomers #Recession #ConsumerSpending #Retirement #Economy

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-baby-boomer-consumer-spending-downturn-retirement-hard-landing-2024-5


The West can't completely isolate Russian banks because it would be disastrous beyond Russia
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The West has tried for more than two years to cripple Moscow's finances by way of sanctions. However, the West hasn't blocked all Russian banks' access to SWIFT due to potential global impact. From February to May 2022, the US and European Union repeatedly moved to block some Russian banks' access to SWIFT — but spared those that process international oil and gas payments. Cutting off all Russian banks' access to SWIFT would have a massive knock-on impact globally. Despite the West's frustration with how Russia's economy still appears to be holding up, the sanctions appear to be finally working. Russia's economy is in 'deep, deep trouble' due to sanctions and finite reserves. Russia's economy is unlikely to hold up due to the finite nature of its reserves. Russia has limited options other than the Chinese yuan for its reserves. In five years, there will be a disastrous slowdown in the Russian economy. Russia's economy is in 'deep, deep trouble' due to sanctions and finite reserves. Russia's economy is unlikely to hold up due to the finite nature of its reserves. Russia has limited options other than the Chinese yuan for its reserves. In five years, there will be a disastrous slowdown in the Russian economy.

#RussianBanks #Sanctions #Swift #GlobalImpact #RussianEconomy

https://www.businessinsider.com/west-cannot-completely-isolate-russia-banks-disastrous-globally-putin-economy-2024-5


Will a cruise ship wait for me if I'm running late at a port stop? Here's what a captain has to say.
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Captain Rob Hempstead of Royal Caribbean's Wonder of the Seas shared advice on what to do if you're running late to a cruise ship. If you're late returning from a cruise-line organized excursion, the ship will wait. However, if you've spent the day independently or with a private tour company, you should call the ship agent to alert them of your delay. The captain will make an educated decision about whether or not to wait based on the estimated time of your arrival. The crew's main concern is sticking to the tight schedule and avoiding burning excessive fuel. It's recommended to plan your day with ample time to return to port or book excursions through the cruise line.

#CruiseShip #PortStop #Captain #RunningLate #Excursion

https://www.businessinsider.com/how-late-will-cruise-ship-wait-for-you-2022-7


Why Americans' confidence in finding a new job is tanking even as the labor market is humming along
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Americans are becoming more pessimistic about their chances of finding a new job if they lose their current one, according to the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. As of April, the average probability of finding a new job within three months was 50.9%, the lowest since April 2021. This pessimism is seen across education levels, incomes, and regions of the US. The job market has become more challenging, with fewer job postings and increased competition among applicants. Americans looking for remote work and high-wage roles are facing difficulties. Some experts argue that people's pessimism about the economy may be due to the impacts of the pandemic. Despite the pessimism, the unemployment rate remains low and the US economy continues to add jobs.

#JobMarket #Unemployment #Economy #Pessimism #LaborMarket

https://www.businessinsider.com/americans-more-worried-finding-job-laid-off-unemployed-2024-5


The consumer slowdown is here and its flashing a recession warning for the economy
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Consumer spending in the US is slowing, which is seen as a warning sign for the economy. Retail sales were unexpectedly flat in April, and March retail sales were revised downward. Economist David Rosenberg has been calling for a recession and believes the downward revisions to sales numbers suggest the economy has been weaker than previously thought. A survey conducted by Primerica found that 67% of middle-class respondents said their income was falling behind the cost of living, causing them to cut back on discretionary purchases. Americans are also saving less, and household debt has surged to a record $17.6 trillion. Job growth has slowed, and consumer spending has taken a hit partly due to the weakening job market. The New York Fed sees a 50% chance of a recession by April 2025.

#ConsumerSpending #Recession #Economy #RetailSales #JobMarket #HouseholdDebt

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-consumer-spending-slowdown-growth-gdp-2024-5


Meet the group preparing for a Soviet Union-type collapse of the US economy
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A group of users on the subreddit r/economiccollapse are preparing for a Soviet Union-type fall of the US economy. The subreddit's membership has grown 80% from the end of 2021 to the end of 2023. Searches for 'stock market crash' and 'economic crash' have also increased. The middle class and ALICEs (asset limited, income constrained, employed) are struggling financially. The housing market is facing problems with sky-high mortgage rates and an increasing number of houses worth less than their mortgages. The stock market's strength is partially attributed to AI, which could lead to a crash. Job growth has slowed, and interest-rate cuts are being delayed. Inflation concerns are debated, with some arguing a soft landing is still possible. Billionaire hedge fund manager Jim Simons died at the age of 86. The US-China rivalry may impact Big Tech. Mark Zuckerberg has turned against the news industry. Startups are focusing on helping people make friends through in-person events. OpenAI is teasing a new announcement. Banks are improving credit-card fraud protection. Rick Doblin and MAPS are pushing to legalize medical MDMA. Some millennials who bought real estate before the pandemic have benefited financially.

#EconomicCollapse #Recession #StockMarketCrash #HousingMarket #Ai #JobGrowth #InterestrateCuts #Inflation #HedgeFund #UschinaRivalry #BigTech #MarkZuckerberg #Startups #Openai #CreditCards #MdmaLegalization #Millennials

https://www.businessinsider.com/economic-doomsday-preppers-economy-recession-crash-reddit-2024-5


Delta has the best first class and Southwest has the best economy seats — see JD Power's airline rankings
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Delta Air Lines has been ranked as passengers' No. 1 pick for its first class by JD Power's airline rankings. Delta regained the top spot after coming in second last year to JetBlue Airways. JetBlue fell to second place this year, followed by United Airlines. Delta's premium economy class claimed the top spot for the second year in a row. Southwest Airlines took top honors in the economy/basic economy segment for the third consecutive year. Air Canada ranked last in customer satisfaction in the first/business class and premium economy categories. Frontier Airlines finished last in the economy/basic economy segment. The study found that trust and ease of travel have superseded price as key driving factors for consumer satisfaction. Media coverage can significantly affect consumer trust in airlines. JD Power's 2024 study is based on responses from 9,582 passengers who had flown on a major North American airline within the previous month of completing the survey, which was conducted between March 2023 and March 2024.

#Airlines #CustomerSatisfaction #Delta #Southwest #JdPower

https://www.businessinsider.com/best-and-worst-airlines-us-canada-customer-satisfaction-delta-southwest-2024-5


China has a lot more missiles — with US warships and bases in its sights
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China's Rocket Force has expanded its missile arsenal, posing a significant threat to American warships and bases in the Pacific. The Rocket Force is armed with thousands of missiles, including medium-range ballistic missiles and intermediate-range missiles that can reach Guam. The force aims to enforce China's claims in the South China Sea and deter US forces and allies in the Indo-Pacific region. The US military is concerned about the growing missile capabilities of China's People's Liberation Army Rocket Force, which could overwhelm American defenses and cause significant damage. The US has been strengthening its air defenses and training exercises with Pacific allies to counter the threat.

#China #UsMilitary #Missiles #RocketForce #Pacific

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5


'Proper' Recession Downturn Looms and Will Trigger Steep Fed Rate Cuts
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Economist Frances Donald warns that a 'proper' economic downturn is looming in the US, which could trigger steep rate cuts as soon as this year. With a slowdown in the US labor market, two negative quarters of growth could hit at the end of the year, prompting the central bank to ease quickly and beyond market expectations. Donald believes that the downturn will require a proper easing cycle and not just insurance cuts. Futures markets are already pricing in two 25-basis point cuts closer to the end of this year. The weakening labor market, including household and temporary employment stats, consistent job loss data, dropping quit rates, and a pullback in small business hiring, supports the recessionary outlook. The Fed's inability to cut rates sooner adds risk in the near term.

#UsEconomy #Recession #FederalReserve #InterestRates

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-downturn-outlook-us-economy-fed-pivot-interest-rate-cuts-2024-5


Buy these 8 underrated stocks that are about to report surprisingly strong Q1 earnings, according to Bank of America
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Bank of America remains bullish on small caps, even though interest rates are elevated. Bank of America's US regime indicator rose last month, the third consecutive increase and the largest in over two and a half years. A continued economic expansion marked by a relatively healthy labor market is excellent news for smaller stocks. BofA encouraged its clients to remain invested in the group. Within SMID-caps, value-oriented companies and those with a quality bent have performed best lately. Bank of America recently shared a list of 13 buy-rated small- and mid-cap stocks that beat both earnings and revenue estimates last quarter and can top consensus expectations again in Q1. The other eight SMID-cap stocks with earnings prospects that Bank of America is bullish about are: Addus HomeCare, US Physical Therapy, Alarm.com, Trex Company, Dynatrace, Patterson Companies, AutoNation, and Saia.

#Stocks #SmallCaps #Q1Earnings #BankOfAmerica

https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-small-caps-q1-earnings-bank-of-america-2024-5


America's big stagflation scare is over
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The US economy's stagflation scare is over after a weak Q1 jobs report. Fears of stagflation were sparked by a weak first-quarter GDP print, but the April jobs report showed that 175,000 positions were added last month, below the consensus forecast of 238,000. Average hourly earnings also unexpectedly declined to 0.2%. This mix of data dispelled the stagflation narrative as job additions were not weak enough to signal a slowdown, but also not strong enough to support higher interest rates. The report eased concerns that arose from the latest GDP print, which showed a slowdown and high underlying inflation. Wall Street was also worried about stagflation, but the jobs report brought relief. If the report had printed weaker, it could have deepened the stagflationary outlook and potentially caused a market sell-off. However, the benchmark S&P 500 rose 1.14% after the report. The US experienced stagflation in the 1970s, characterized by high consumer prices, recessions, and a weak stock market.

#UsEconomy #Stagflation #JobsReport #Gdp #Inflation #InterestRates #StockMarket

https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-us-economy-recession-outlook-forecast-q1-jobs-report-labor-2024-5


Why economists who originally expected multiple deep rate cuts in 2024 now say a hike is possible
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Macquarie, an economic firm, has changed its forecast for interest rates in 2024. Previously, they projected aggressive interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in the second half of the year, but now they believe that potential rate cuts won't happen until 2025. The firm suggests that the next change may be a hike, which would lead to a new wave of broad-based US dollar strength. This change in forecast is due to signs of rebounding inflation and the resilience of the US economy. Macquarie's economists now believe that the chances of a Fed interest rate cut this year are slim to none and that an interest-rate hike is possible. The firm also mentions that the threat of a hike would prompt a new wave of broad-based USD strength. The upcoming FOMC meeting could result in a hawkish press conference from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. A rising US dollar could negatively impact US companies with operations overseas. Macquarie's previous forecast was similar to UBS, which predicted aggressive interest rate cuts due to a US recession.

#InterestRates #FederalReserve #Macquarie #Economists #Forecast #Inflation #UsEconomy #FomcMeeting #JeromePowell #UsDollar #UsCompanies #Recession

https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-outlook-fed-hike-chances-cuts-jerome-powell-economy-2024-4


The Best, Underrated Places to Visit With Kids, From a Travel Blogger
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Karen Edwards, a travel blogger, has visited 93 countries, 57 of them with her young children. She prefers exploring underrated spots over popular ones. Her favorite underrated spots include Tanzania for its safari tours and Abu Dhabi for its vibrant festival scene. She also loves Sri Lanka for its diverse experiences and pristine beaches, and Andorra for its ski resorts and spas. Edwards also had a positive experience in Macedonia, where she was treated like family. She believes that traveling to underrated spots offers a more exclusive and educational experience, away from tourist traps.

https://www.businessinsider.com/best-underrated-places-visit-with-kids-from-travel-blogger-2024-4


The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months without a downturn - but the famed indicator isn't wrong, and a recession is near, strategist says
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The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months, signaling a recession is near. The inverted Treasury yield curve, which occurs when the yield on the 2-year US Treasury surpasses the 10-year Treasury, has correctly predicted every recession since 1955. Despite the resilience of the US economy, a downturn is still expected, with recessions historically taking up to 28 months to officially start after being signaled by the yield curve and leading economic indicators. Chief investment strategist Paul Dietrich warns that investors should be skeptical of those who claim a new bull market has begun and that a recession won't occur. Dietrich is among the more bearish forecasters on Wall Street, having previously predicted a mild recession this year that could cause stocks to drop by as much as 49%.

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-yield-curve-inversion-economy-hard-landing-indicator-stocks-2024-4


Russia's economic strength will last another 18 months before unraveling as Putin grapples with policy 'trilemma,' think tank says
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Russia's economic strength could last another year-and-a-half before it starts to fade, according to the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The think tank pointed to the nation's show of defiance amid its invasion of Ukraine, with the Russian economy still strong despite rising military costs and Western sanctions. However, the current arrangement is expected to come apart within eighteen months due to growing imbalances and possible social problems. Putin is facing a policy 'trilemma' as the nation goes through its third year of war in Ukraine, trying to fund the military, maintain living standards, and keep the economy stable. Signs of weakness have already emerged, such as record military spending, inflation, and falling incomes. Experts warn of near-term social unrest and a grim future due to a shortage of workers, declining productivity, and isolation from the rest of the world.

#Russia #Economy #Putin #Policy #Trilemma #Ukraine #Sanctions #Military #Inflation #SocialUnrest

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-putin-growth-outlook-inflation-military-spending-2024-4


Rise of Hate Spending: Americans Detest High Prices but Keep Shopping
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Despite hating high prices, Americans continue to spend heavily. Retail sales in March were higher than expected, indicating that consumers are still the driving force behind the economy. The surge in hate spending can be attributed to factors such as financial stability, resignation to the state of financial affairs, and the desire to live it up after the pandemic. While lower-income households may be struggling, Americans as a whole are in good financial shape. The misalignment between people's stated attitude toward prices and their actual behavior can be attributed to a decoupling between their current situations and their feelings about the future. Additionally, consumerism and the desire for status play a role in hate spending. People are willing to splurge on experiences and luxury items, even if they are more expensive than before. The article suggests that moderation in spending may be on the horizon, but it is unclear when that will happen.

#ConsumerSpending #HighPrices #RetailSales #Inflation #Economy

https://www.businessinsider.com/hate-spending-consumers-economic-sentiment-retail-sales-inflation-gdp-growth-2024-4


Romance scammers are now building trust with AI-generated deepfakes. Here's how to spot them.
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Romance scammers, known as 'Yahoo Boys,' are using AI-generated deepfakes to defraud people online. The Nigerian online crime group has cost Americans $1.3 billion in 2022. The scammers create fake online personas and solicit money from victims by gaining their trust. They often target older individuals for their life savings, inheritances, and retirement funds. Victims have reported losing significant amounts of money, with one widow losing $39,000. The scammers have started using deepfake video clips and video calls to dupe internet users. They set up calls through Zoom and use software to change their facial features. In February, a finance worker in Hong Kong lost $25 million to scammers using deepfakes. In Utah, seven members of the Nigerian group were indicted for laundering funds obtained from romance scams. Victims in Utah lost over $3.6 million in 2022. To spot a deepfake, it is recommended to do a reverse image search and check the true source of an image. The US attorney's office advises never to send money to someone you haven't met in-person.

#RomanceScams #AigeneratedDeepfakes #YahooBoys #Nigeria #Fraud

https://www.businessinsider.com/romance-scams-ai-deepfakes-yahoo-boys-nigeria-fraud-2024-4


Meta's 'Imagine' AI image generator morphs and changes as you type
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Meta introduced Imagine, a new AI image generation feature called Imagine that allows users to create images in real time. The feature uses Meta's AI model, Llama 3, for sharper, high-quality images. Users can generate images by typing the prompt 'Imagine' followed by a description, and the image will change as they type. The feature is part of a broader announcement made by Meta last week. Meta's CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, referred to the company's 'big AI news' as 'pretty wild.' Meta is still catching up to competitors like OpenAI and Anthropic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-imagine-ai-image-generator-morphs-as-you-type-2024-4


Taylor Swift's name is popping up on Wall Street earnings calls thanks to her massive impact on the US economy
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Taylor Swift's impact on the US economy is evident through her successful tour and new album. Her 60-show tour generated a record $1.04 billion in sales, leading to a surge in hotel bookings. Several companies, including Uber, AMC Entertainment, Disney, National Bank Holdings, and Live Nation, have mentioned Swift on Wall Street earnings calls to explain their business performance. Swift's concerts and movies have contributed to revenue and EBITDA growth for these companies. Her cultural phenomenon status and exclusive streaming rights for her concert movie on Disney+ have also been highlighted. The Midwest market, particularly Kansas City, has experienced growth, which the CEO of National Bank Holdings jokingly attributed to Taylor Swift and the Chiefs. Live Nation's CEO sees Swift and Drake as the start of a new revolution in the music industry.

#TaylorSwift #WallStreet #EarningsCalls #UsEconomy #Concerts #Movies #RevenueGrowth #EbitdaGrowth #Disney+ #KansasCity #LiveNation

https://www.businessinsider.com/taylor-swift-economic-impact-wall-street-earnings-calls-new-album-2024-4


The US's blowout debt burden is one piece of a global problem, IMF warns
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The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns that the US's ballooning debt burden could have a negative impact on the global economy. The IMF's latest Fiscal Monitor report highlights the risks associated with the US deficit, which is projected to reach 7.1% by 2025, more than triple the overspending levels of other advanced economies. The report emphasizes that loose fiscal policy in the US puts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar, exacerbating existing fragilities and risks. The IMF also raises concerns about China's deficit and debt levels, stating that how these two economies manage their fiscal policies could have profound effects on the global economy. The Congressional Budget Office projects that US debt will reach 116% of GDP by 2054. The report suggests that bipartisan willingness to cut spending and implement tax hikes across income levels could be potential solutions to address the debt issue.

#UsDebt #GlobalEconomy #Imf #FiscalPolicy #CongressionalBudgetOffice

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-debt-outlook-borrowing-costs-bond-yields-global-economy-imf-2024-4


Russia will grow faster than the US and all other advanced economies this year, the IMF says
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Russia's economy is predicted to grow by 3.2% in 2024, outpacing all advanced economies, including the US, the IMF said. The growth rate has been linked to high investment and robust private consumption. The IMF expects the momentum to fade in 2025, with Russia growing at a rate of 1.8%. Russia's resilience against Western sanctions is attributed to its alliance with China and strong energy exports. Moscow has been accruing funds from fleeing foreign companies, seizing $387 million as of mid-March. Trade volume between Russia and China surged to a record $240 billion last year.

#Russia #Economy #Imf #GrowthForecast

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-grows-faster-than-all-advanced-economies-imf-2024-4


Americans are losing confidence in their military and government institutions: polls
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New Gallup data reveals that the US has fallen behind several G7 countries in key indicators. In 2023, 26% of Americans struggled to afford food. Confidence in the US military has fallen, with a new low of 81%. Confidence in the US government and judiciary has also declined. The drop in confidence began after the Biden Administration's decision to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan. Just a third of Americans in 2023 thought the US was spending the right amount on defense. Confidence in the US judicial system fell to 42% in 2023. The US economy remains stronger than its G7 peers, with a GDP growth of 2.5% in 2023. However, 26% of Americans struggled to afford food, the highest among G7 countries. Americans are split on their economic trajectory, with 44% thinking their local economies are getting better and 48% thinking they are getting worse.

#Confidence #G7Countries #FoodInsecurity #UsMilitary #UsGovernment #UsJudiciary #GdpGrowth

https://www.businessinsider.com/military-government-judiciary-confidence-food-insecurity-g7-gallup-gdp-growth-2024-4


The Fed may have pumped so much money into the economy that it's now taking way longer to cut rates
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US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has signaled a delay in expected interest rate cuts, citing the need for more time to be confident that the fight against inflation is working. Excess money, a result of pandemic-era policies, may be drained from the economy later this year. The Fed can maintain the current level of restriction if higher inflation persists. Lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending, driving the economy. An analyst believes it will be difficult to achieve a soft landing for the US economy due to the scale of the COVID-19 stimulus and money supply. Money supply, consumer demand, supply chain snarls, and fiscal stimulus all contribute to inflation. The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for April 30 to May 1.

#UsFederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #MoneySupply #Economy

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-powell-pump-money-us-economy-delayed-cut-interest-rate-2024-4


The US's newest immigrants are more likely than native-born Americans to have a college degree, per Goldman Sachs
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Recent immigrants in the US are more likely to have a college degree compared to native-born Americans, according to a Goldman Sachs report. Many recent immigrants come from South America, Central America, and Mexico, and settled in states like Florida, California, Texas, and New York. They are more likely to work in industries such as construction, professional and business, and accommodation and food services. Recent immigrants earn less than $40,000 a year on average, compared to $54,000 for US-born workers. The number of foreign-born workers in the US has increased, accounting for most of the growth in the labor force.

#UsImmigration #ImmigrantWorkers #CollegeDegree #Employment #Income

https://www.businessinsider.com/typical-immigrant-united-states-jobs-construction-food-services-florida-california-2024-4


Jamie Dimon made $183 million from selling JPMorgan stock
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan, has sold 1 million JPMorgan shares, earning $183 million in total proceeds. He sold $33 million worth of stock on Monday and had previously sold a $150 million tranche in February. The sales were for diversification and tax planning purposes. This is the first time Dimon has sold JPMorgan shares in 19 years. Dimon still owns about 8.7 million shares after the disposals. He has warned investors about threats to financial markets and the US economy in his yearly letter to shareholders, including rising tensions, inflation, and foreign conflicts.

#JamieDimon #Jpmorgan #StockSales #Diversification #TaxPlanning #FinancialMarkets #UsEconomy

https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-jamie-dimon-stock-sales-billionaires-wall-street-banks-economy-2024-4


Stock market today: US futures tread water as Wall Street remains cautious
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US futures were little changed on Tuesday morning after a losing start to the week for all three major indices on Monday as investors worried about the Israel-Iran conflict. S&P 500 futures were trading flat shortly before 5 a.m. ET. Nasdaq 100 futures were also level, while Dow Jones Industrial Average futures fell 0.1%. US equities suffered setbacks across the board on Monday. The Dow marked its sixth consecutive losing day, dropping 248 points or 0.65%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite slid below its 50-day moving average for the first time since November, losing 1.79%. The 10-year Treasury yield remained level overnight, remaining near its highest level in five months. The DXY index, which measures the greenback's strength against six other currencies, rose by 0.1% overnight, also keeping level with solid gains on Monday. The release of strong data on Monday signaled the resilience of the US economy, but also pushed back chances that the Fed will cut interest rates in June. September is considered to be the most likely point at which the Fed will act. Traders will be looking to a series of talks from key figures at the Federal Reserve, including Chair Jerome Powell and Vice Chair Philip Jefferson, for a clearer indication. Also coming on Tuesday, the IMF will be publishing its latest World Economic Outlook, while major banks releasing quarterly earnings today include Bank of America and Morgan Stanley.

#StockMarket #UsFutures #WallStreet #GeopoliticalUncertainty

https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-news-today-futures-level-wall-street-geopolitical-uncertainty-2024-4


Here's how much food costs at Coachella, including $11 for a slice of pizza and $33 for a turkey burger meal
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The article provides a breakdown of the prices of food at the Coachella Valley Music and Arts Festival. Business Insider's music team attended the festival in 2022 and 2023 and documented the prices of various food items. The costs include $10 for a cup of black coffee, $11 for a slice of pizza, $17 for a fried chicken sandwich, $16 for a grilled cheese sandwich, $17 for chicken tenders, $13 for a 'sumo dog', $18 for a Japanese-inspired hot dog, $17 for an orange-chicken bowl, and $45 for two basic hot dogs and two sides of fries. The article also mentions the limited seating options at the festival, which makes it difficult to enjoy certain food items that require utensils or a steady hand. The prices of coffee were particularly high, with an oat milk latte costing $15 and a small cup of black coffee costing $10. The article concludes by mentioning the cost of a large cup of strawberry lemonade, which was just over $18.

#Coachella #FoodPrices #MusicFestival #FoodOptions

https://www.businessinsider.com/coachella-how-much-does-food-cost-photos-2022-4


Boomers are hanging onto large homes, boxing out millennials with growing families. That could hurt Biden in the election.
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Many baby boomers are choosing to remain in their large homes, causing a housing shortage for millennials with growing families. According to a Redfin analysis of US Census Bureau data, 28% of homes with three or more bedrooms are owned by empty-nesters aged 60 to 78, while millennials with children own only 14% of similarly-sized properties. The tight housing market and high-interest rates have made it difficult for millennials to purchase homes within their budget. This issue of housing affordability could impact the 2024 election, as Gen Z and millennial voters are frustrated with the lack of action from leaders in Washington. President Joe Biden has emphasized housing affordability on the campaign trail, but many voters aged 18 to 44 are not enthused with the administration. This could benefit former President Donald Trump, despite the left-leaning orientation of many young voters. The housing shortage and high mortgage rates have resulted in a lower quality of life for millennial families compared to their parents. The article suggests that there is still not enough housing available.

#HousingAffordability #BabyBoomers #Millennials #2024Election

https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomers-millennials-large-homes-inventory-affordability-election-2024-4


These 5 recession indicators have escaped the danger zone after flashing economic red flags
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Five recession indicators that were flashing a warning sign about the economy have since retreated, according to Ned Davis Research. The indicators include NDR's Recession Probability Model, household employment levels, gross domestic income, the Leading Economic Index, and the inverted yield curve. These indicators have all shown positive trends, suggesting minimal odds of a recession at this time. The reversal of these indicators highlights the risk of relying on a few indicators to support a particular view.

https://www.businessinsider.com/5-recession-indicators-leave-danger-zone-after-economy-warning-signs-2024-4


Immigration has helped the hot US economy and labor market, but there's a risk of oversupply, Fitch says
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Foreign-born workers are leading the increase in the US labor force, representing 19% of the labor force at YE 2023. The foreign-born labor participation rate is 66%, higher than the native-born participation rate of 62%. Net immigration averaged 0.9% of the US population for the past two years. While higher immigration flows should keep labor momentum going, there is a risk of oversupply as labor demand starts to show signs of decline. Government hiring has also contributed to the impressive labor market, with job growth in this sector averaging 2.7% in 2023.

#UsLaborMarket #Immigration #LaborForce #Oversupply #EconomicGrowth

https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-us-labor-jobs-market-growth-recession-oversupply-outlook-layoffs-2024-4


Florida's Brightline Train Is Good, but Not Worth the Price
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The author took Florida's Brightline train from Miami to Orlando and had a great experience, but wouldn't pay for it again; Brightline is a new transportation option in Florida; The author was upgraded to a premium ticket after Brightline experienced delays opening its Orlando station; The Brightline station in Miami was clean, spacious, and beautifully decorated; The author initially purchased a standard ticket but received a free voucher for a premium ticket due to the delays; Premium ticket holders had access to a private lounge with snacks and beverages; The boarding process was organized and the train was waiting on the platform; The trip to Orlando was quiet and the train car was mostly empty; Premium passengers received a complimentary meal; There was a 35-minute delay in Port St. Lucie due to a mechanical issue with the bridge; The author enjoyed the experience but wouldn't pay for it again due to the high price compared to other transportation options.

#Florida #BrightlineTrain #Transportation #PremiumTicket #Miami #Orlando

https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-brightline-train-premium-ticket-not-worth-price-miami-orlando-2023-10


More CEOs expect hybrid work is here to stay
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According to a survey by KPMG US, fewer big-company CEOs expect workers to return to the office full-time. Just 34% of US CEOs expect office-based roles to return in the near future, down from 62% in 2023. The survey also showed that 46% of CEOs expect office roles to be hybrid, up from 34% in 2023. Only 3% of CEOs back fully remote work. CEOs are also exploring new ways of scheduling work, such as a four-day week or a four-and-a-half-day week. The survey found that 87% of CEOs are confident in the growth trajectory of the US economy, and 78% are confident in the global economy and the prospects for their companies in the next year. About one-third of CEOs expect a significant increase in hiring in the next year. CEOs are also looking to adopt generative artificial intelligence (AI) more widely, with nearly four in 10 CEOs expecting their companies to move from AI pilots to broader use within the next 12 to 18 months. CEOs are also planning to disclose the use of AI, with 81% planning to flag when AI is involved, up from 19% in 2023. However, CEOs expressed concerns about the US presidential election, high interest rates, geopolitical challenges, and inflation.

https://www.businessinsider.com/hybrid-work-here-to-stay-ceos-rto-remote-2024-4


The economy is sending mixed signals about a recession, and that's made the timing of the next rate cut less meaningful
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The US economy is sending mixed signals about a potential recession in the near future. Housing and manufacturing indicators suggest an early-cycle economy, while the unemployment rate and tight credit spreads indicate a late-cycle economy. The conflicting data suggests the Federal Reserve should de-emphasize when it will cut interest rates. The Fed's monetary policy has had less impact on the economy in recent years. The mismatch in economic indicators calls for flexibility in interest rate decisions. The release of the hotter-than-expected March CPI report reduced the probability of a rate cut in June and pushed it to July.

#Economy #Recession #InterestRates #FederalReserve

https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-recession-outlook-mixed-signals-early-late-cycle-interest-rates-2024-4


The Jamie Dimon manifesto
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Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, outlines policy ideas in his 2023 shareholder letter. He emphasizes the need for the US to strengthen its role in the global economy and address domestic unrest. Dimon proposes policy changes to improve economic equality and bolster the earned income tax credit. He also discusses the importance of global peace, resolving the war in Ukraine, and rethinking global trade alliances. Dimon calls for a reimagined Bretton Woods agreement and highlights the issues of immigration, border security, and the fraying of the American dream. He suggests stronger action on border control and policies to drive economic growth. Dimon advocates for educational reforms, job-skills training, and expanding the earned income tax credit. He believes in the enduring values of America and its ability to meet future challenges.

#JamieDimon #JpmorganChase #Policy #UsEconomy #GlobalPeace #Ukraine #TradeAlliances #EconomicEquality #EarnedIncomeTaxCredit #Immigration #BorderSecurity #AmericanDream

https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-shareholder-letter-manifesto-us-exceptionalism-policy-trade-ukraine-2024-4


JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon warns the world is on fire — and plenty of people are way too bullish
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JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warns of geopolitical tensions and expresses concern about optimism regarding inflation, interest rates, and the economy. He highlights the treacherous geopolitical era, conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, US-China tensions, and terrorist attacks. Dimon also mentions the risks of recession, stagflation, food and energy price increases, borrowing costs, global fear and uncertainty, deficit spending, remilitarization, disruptions in global supply chains, the cost of climate change, and underinvestment in energy infrastructure. He cautions against overreliance on monthly inflation figures and minor rate adjustments, and warns of the potential stress on the banking system and leveraged companies if rates rise further. Dimon also discusses the transformative potential of AI and the risks associated with equity and credit markets. He concludes by stating that JPMorgan is prepared for rates of 2% to 8% or higher and emphasizes the extraordinary consequences of blockchain technology.

#JamieDimon #Jpmorgan #GeopoliticalTensions #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #Recession #Stagflation #Ai #EquityMarkets #CreditMarkets

https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-jpmorgan-letter-war-inflation-recession-rates-economy-ai-2024-4


Apple layoffs are a sign Tim Cook is getting a little more serious
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Apple has laid off over 600 employees in California, including those involved in expensive research-and-development projects. The layoffs signal that Apple's CEO, Tim Cook, is making the company more focused amidst several challenges. These challenges include declining iPhone sales, particularly in China, legal battles in the US and the European Union, and criticism of its Vision Pro headset. Cook is facing perhaps his biggest challenge since becoming CEO in 2011.

#Apple #TimCook #Layoffs #R&dProjects #Iphone #China #VisionPro #LegalBattles

https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-layoffs-tim-cook-getting-serious-challenges-car-china-iphone-2024-4


The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
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The US economy is showing signs of a recession, according to economist Lakshman Achuthan. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has declined over the past year, which has historically been followed by a recession. GDP growth is slowing, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting expansion of just 2.5% in the first quarter. The US Coincident Index, which includes GDP, jobs, and retail sales data, has trended near 0% over the last two years. Hiring conditions are weakening, with the unemployment rate rising and the ECRI's Cyclical Labor Conditions index plunging nearly 50%. Non-discretionary job growth has been strong, but job growth in other sectors has been near 0%. Achuthan warns that if external support fades, it could spell trouble for the economy. Other economists, including David Rosenberg, have also warned of a coming downturn.

#UsEconomy #Recession #EconomicIndicators #GdpGrowth #JobMarket

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-hard-landing-job-market-layoffs-growth-warning-2024-4


Detroit Is Set to Host the NFL Draft a Decade After Going Bankrupt
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Detroit is preparing to host the NFL draft in April 2024, a decade after the city went bankrupt. Mayor Mike Duggan sees the event as an opportunity to reintroduce Detroit to the rest of the US and showcase the city's transformation. The 2013 bankruptcy crisis highlighted the city's financial struggles, including high unemployment rates and underfunded public services. However, since then, Detroit has made significant progress in improving its finances, paying off its creditors, and balancing its budget. The upcoming NFL draft is expected to bring hundreds of thousands of visitors to the city and provide an economic boost. Local real-estate developer Bedrock Detroit has played a central role in revitalizing downtown Detroit, and its founder, Dan Gilbert, is excited about the draft's potential impact. The success of the Detroit Lions' surprise playoff run last year has also contributed to the city's economic revival and boosted residents' pride in their city.

#Detroit #NflDraft #Bankruptcy #MikeDuggan #EconomicRevival

https://www.businessinsider.com/detroit-nfl-draft-bankruptcy-mayor-mike-duggan-jared-goff-2024-3


If you want a preview of China's economic collapse, just look at Japan
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Japan's long-comatose economy is finally showing signs of life after a real-estate implosion in the early 1990s. The country's economy spent the next three decades shrinking, but recent efforts to reboot the economy have started to yield positive results. However, China is now facing a similar property-market collapse, and experts are watching Japan's recovery closely. China's economy heavily depends on the property market, and after decades of overbuilding and speculation, the country is now dealing with a massive debt pile. While Japan's recovery was the result of decades-long efforts and careful negotiations, it will be nearly impossible for Beijing to replicate the same process. China's economic circumstances are different, and its social and political systems are not conducive to the same kind of stimulus measures that Japan implemented. Additionally, China's relationship with the rest of the world, particularly the US, is more adversarial, making it difficult for China to rely on exports to support its recovery. The success of China's recovery will depend on its ability to find trading partners and build the right relationships to support its economic growth.

#China #Japan #Economy #Recession #RealEstate #Debt #Stimulus #Exports

https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-china-real-estate-stock-market-crash-recession-xi-jinping-2024-3


How China has helped Russia and Iran evade Western sanctions, according to a think tank
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China has helped Russia and Iran evade Western sanctions on their oil exports by creating an alternative market for their restricted oil. The oil is traded in Chinese renminbi, allowing their crude-loaded tankers to bypass international maritime rules. Chinese independent refineries, known as 'teapots,' have clandestinely accepted 90% of Iran's total oil exports, while Chinese state-owned refiners have avoided Iran due to fears of sanctions. China's aid to Russia is within the bounds of safeguarding its own interests, as evidenced by three out of four Chinese banks halting payments from sanctioned Russian firms. However, if the West were to threaten to sanction large Chinese companies for importing Russian oil above the price cap, Beijing would likely comply.

#China #Russia #Iran #WesternSanctions #OilExports #AlternativeMarket #Renminbi #Teapots #SanctionedRussianFirms

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-iran-economy-outlook-help-assistance-western-sanctions-oil-2024-3


The hot new government job is AI specialist
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The Biden Administration is requiring all federal agencies to hire a chief AI specialist and beef up their AI staff. The agencies must prove that their use of AI does not harm the public, and if they can't, they must stop using AI tools. The new policy also sets guidelines for agencies to adopt, including publishing an annual inventory of their use of AI and ensuring a human oversees all AI tools. Open positions for AI specialists in the government offer salaries topping out at over $143,000. This is part of Biden's AI plan, which aims to establish transparency policies around AI.

#Government #Ai #Specialist #Biden #Harris

https://www.businessinsider.com/government-jobs-hiring-ai-specialists-white-house-biden-harris-2024-3


The inventor of a famed recession indicator says many state-level warning signs are less dire when you factor in immigration
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Claudia Sahm, the inventor of the Sahm Rule recession indicator, says that many state-level warning signs are less dire when you factor in immigration. The Sahm Rule has triggered in 20 states, indicating a recession, but Sahm argues that the increase in unemployment rates is partly due to the strength of the economy in recent years, which has attracted much-needed immigration to meet the demands of a hot labor market. Last year, net immigration into the US hit 3.3 million, a sharp rise from the average of 900,000 between 2010 and 2019. Sahm explains that immigrants boost the population but don't immediately take up jobs due to the immigration process, leading to a temporary rise in the unemployment rate. The burst of immigrant labor during the post-pandemic reopening in 2021 was critical in easing the national labor shortage and ensuring the economy could run at its pace. JPMorgan has also noted the positive impact of immigrants on the labor market and predicts that this population should keep US output up.

#RecessionIndicator #SahmRule #UnemploymentRate #LaborMarket #Immigration #Economy

https://www.businessinsider.com/immigration-sahm-rule-recession-indicator-unemployment-rate-labor-market-economy-2024-3


China's industrial push risks destabilizing the global economy and watering down green-energy exports, Janet Yellen warns
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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen warns that China's industrial push could destabilize the global economy and dilute green-energy exports. Yellen expresses concern about China's oversupply of cheap green energy products, which distorts global prices and hurts American firms and workers. China's clean energy industry contributed to 40% of the country's economic growth last year, but this has led to a substantial oversupply of solar panels, causing prices to plunge. Yellen plans to raise the issue of overcapacity during her next trip to China.

#China #IndustrialPush #GlobalEconomy #GreenenergyExports #JanetYellen

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-industrial-economic-growth-plan-global-impact-green-energy-exports-2024-3


What the Baltimore Bridge Collapse Means for the US Economy
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The collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore on Tuesday is a reminder that the economy remains vulnerable to sudden supply-chain shocks. While the disaster is unlikely to have a tangible effect on headline GDP growth or inflation, it could affect trade, drive up shipping and trucking costs, and affect employment in Baltimore. The port of Baltimore contributes economic activity worth $15 million a day, and a partial closure of the port could lead to direct and indirect temporary layoffs. The port is the busiest for 'roll-on/roll-off' cargo, and if it stays shut, companies face higher costs by having to reroute goods. Protection and indemnity insurance premiums are also likely to rise. The bridge's collapse is unlikely to cause similar disruption to past supply-chain crises such as the Ever Given blocking the Suez Canal in 2021. However, it highlights the need to build resilient supply chains.

#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #UsEconomy #SupplyChains #Trade #Shipping #Employment

https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-bridge-collapse-francis-scott-key-economy-growth-supply-chains-2024-3


A staggering amount of money is slipping away due to the Baltimore bridge collapse
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The Port of Baltimore is closed "until further notice" following the collapse of the Francis Scott Key Bridge. The closure alone will bring some $15 million of daily economic activity to a halt. The port alone contributes $15 million in daily economic activity, which will come to a near standstill. The closure will impact the railroads, the trucking industry, the regional distribution centers, commuters, and other segments of the economy. Baltimore's port is responsible for some 140,000 jobs. The port is specialized in autos and agriculture equipment, known as roll-on/roll-off cargo, as well as some bulk commodities, like coal. Container ships can largely be rerouted to other east coast locations, but it's unclear whether East Coast ports will have enough available capacity to absorb Baltimore's container volume. The costs on land will be harder to compute, though no less disruptive to the local economy. The closure of the bridge will require vehicles to take a longer, slower alternate route. The first economic priority is reopening the port, and it will likely be a long time before a replacement bridge is completed. Baltimore's outlook has sank to the bottom with its number one economic asset compromised.

#Baltimore #BridgeCollapse #PortOfBaltimore #EconomicImpact

https://www.businessinsider.com/baltimore-port-closure-could-cost-15-million-per-day-2024-3


The Fed is going to make inflation worse with rate-cut promises, former central banker says
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Former Federal Reserve governor Kevin Warsh warns that the Federal Reserve's promises to cut interest rates later this year could worsen inflation. Warsh points out that the stock market is booming and financial conditions may already be loosening, which spells trouble for consumers. The premonition of rate cuts has the effect of loosening financial conditions and could reignite inflation. Some Wall Street forecasters see a resurgence of inflation before it heads back to the Fed's 2% target. Consumer prices unexpectedly accelerated in February, increasing 3.2% year-over-year. Investors are currently pricing in a 71% chance of the Fed slashing interest rates by 75 basis points or more by December.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #InterestRates #Economy #MonetaryPolicy

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-inflation-outlook-us-economy-growth-monetary-policy-2024-3


China is coming under increasing fire from the US and EU over its Russia dealings
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Chinese banks, including Ping An Bank and Bank of Ningbo, have halted yuan transactions with Russia due to Western pressure. The US extended its sanctioning power to target Russia-friendly institutions, leading to payment difficulties for Russian clients. This move is seen as a consequence of the US and EU's increasing pressure on China. The dependency of Russia on China has grown since the Kremlin's war on Ukraine began in 2022, and bilateral trade between the two countries exploded in 2023. However, China's trade with the US is much greater than its trade with Russia. The Western pressure on China is not expected to become an obstacle to the further development of trade and economic relations between China and Russia.

#China #Russia #Us #Eu #YuanTransactions #Sanctions #Trade #WesternPressure

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-secondary-sanctions-foreign-banks-yuan-payments-trade-us-2024-3


AI Execs Are Turning to Fossil Fuels to Power Their Tech Revolution
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AI is driving a massive demand for electricity, potentially forcing AI companies to rely more on fossil fuels. The energy demands of AI may surpass the capacities of clean sources like wind and solar power. Nuclear facilities take years to build, making them an impractical option for immediate power needs. Some executives believe that the growth in AI won't impede the goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2050, but it does complicate the process. Executives are considering natural gas as a solution to meet the energy demands of data centers.

#Ai #FossilFuels #Electricity #DataCenters #CleanEnergy #CarbonEmissions

https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-energy-electricity-data-centers-fossil-fuels-tech-revolution-2024-3


Airline tickets could get more expensive amid the Boeing 737 Max fallout
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Airlines including United, Delta, Southwest, and Alaska may see higher ticket prices amid the Boeing 737 Max fallout. Executives from several US carriers expressed doubt about the Boeing 737 Max delivery schedule. Southwest expects 42% fewer jets this year and United told Boeing to stop making the Max 10. The slowdown in production has prompted airlines to cut flying, likely resulting in higher airfares. Customers may soon feel the impact of the Boeing 737 Max blowout as airlines face uncertainty about their future fleets. Southwest will only receive 46 of the previously planned 79 Max 8 variants it hoped to get this year, representing a 42% decrease. United will build an 'alternative plan' for its fleet that doesn't include the Max 10. Delta Air Lines CEO expressed doubt over the Max 10 timeline. Alaska Airlines said its schedule is 'in flux' as it evaluates Boeing's production stall. The decrease in available aircraft means airlines are forced to cut flying, likely resulting in higher airfare to make up for the lost revenue. Ryanair CEO warns of slightly higher airfares this summer due to Max delivery delays. Airlines are likely to capitalize on this year's strong demand and limit the number of seats sold at the lowest price points for peak summer travel. Low-cost competition from the likes of Frontier and Spirit Airlines will prompt the majors to offer 'basic economy' fares on some flights. Airlines may look to Airbus to grow their fleets as a remedy. Delta and United have more flexibility in their diverse fleets. Airbus is already bottlenecked and cannot physically manage the global demand for airliners.

#AirlineTickets #Boeing737Max #TicketPrices #Airfare #Airlines #United #Delta #Southwest #Alaska #DeliverySchedule #Production #Fleet #Ryanair #Airbus

https://www.businessinsider.com/airline-ticket-prices-increase-boeing-737-max-airfare-deals-2024-3


What the polls get very, very wrong about the economy
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The quality of soft data in surveys and polls about the US economy is deteriorating, leading to a distorted view of the economy. Hard data shows a strong recovery, with GDP growth, consumer spending, and the job market performing well. However, soft data, such as surveys and polls, indicate massive economic pessimism among households. The divergence between hard and soft data can be attributed to the underweighting of the experiences of certain groups, particularly lower-income and frontline workers. The decline in survey response rates and the skewing of respondents towards higher-income individuals contribute to the distorted view. This skewed perception of the economy can lead policymakers to make incorrect decisions and potentially exacerbate income inequality. To avoid this, there is a need to change how the US economy is measured and discussed.

#UsEconomy #Surveys #Polls #HardData #SoftData #EconomicPessimism #Recovery #IncomeInequality

https://www.businessinsider.com/polls-get-american-economy-wrong-make-next-recession-worse-jobs-2024-3


US Navy demoted Ronny Jackson, Trump's former White House doctor, over allegations of inappropriate behavior, says report
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Ronny Jackson, the former White House physician and current GOP congressman, was demoted by the US Navy in July 2022 following allegations of inappropriate behavior. The demotion came after a 2021 inspector general report that accused Jackson of belittling and bullying staff, engaging in alcohol-related misconduct, misusing Ambien, and making sexual and denigrating statements to a female subordinate. Jackson continues to refer to himself as a retired rear admiral, despite the demotion. The demotion would likely result in a loss of over $15,000 in annual pension payouts. Jackson served as physician to the President from 2013 to 2018 and is a Republican congressman for Texas since 2021.

#RonnyJackson #UsNavy #WhiteHouse #InappropriateBehavior #Demotion

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-demotes-white-house-doctor-ronny-jackson-bad-behavior-2024-3


How the Canadian mortgage model could help unfreeze the housing market
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Experts suggest that adopting the Canadian mortgage model could help unfreeze the US housing market. The US housing market has experienced a decline in listings and transactions as homeowners are reluctant to sell due to the fear of losing their cheap 30-year mortgage rates. Portable mortgages, which allow homeowners to keep their low mortgage rates when they move, could potentially increase overall inventory and transaction volumes. However, implementing portable mortgages may be challenging, as it could require compensation for lenders and investors holding non-transferable mortgages and mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, homeowners may be deterred from selling if they face additional fees or a complex porting process. Portable mortgages could also increase the risk to mortgage lenders and potentially lead to higher mortgage rates. The introduction of portable mortgages would require the involvement of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, but currently, there are no indications that they are considering this option.

#Mortgages #HousingMarket #AffordabilityCrisis #Inventory #TransactionVolumes

https://www.businessinsider.com/portable-mortgages-interest-rates-housing-market-affordability-crisis-frozen-sellers-2024-3


Finally, Bob Iger gets it: People want to watch good movies
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Disney CEO Bob Iger is focusing on producing quality films and has squashed projects that weren't strong enough. He stated that he personally watches films three to five times with the team and creates a culture of excellence and respect. Iger admitted that the company prioritized quantity over quality in the past but now understands that quantity can be a negative when it comes to quality. He denied that audiences are fatigued over certain movie genres and stated that they want great films. The company is scaling down on the Marvel Cinematic Universe (MCU) and releasing fewer movies. Iger cited the recent Christopher Nolan hit 'Oppenheimer' as an example of the type of great film Disney wants to produce.

#BobIger #Disney #Films #Quality #Marvel #Mcu

https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-iger-disney-marvel-movies-morgan-stanley-event-2024-3


10 reasons the Fed won't cut rates in 2024, according to a chief economist
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Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok believes that the US Federal Reserve will not cut rates in 2024 due to several factors. These include higher inflation readings, a resilient job market, and easing financial conditions. Slok argues that the US economy is not slowing down and that the Fed pivot has provided a strong tailwind to growth. He offers 10 reasons to support his view, including the economy being too hot, underlying inflation trends moving higher, a hot labor market, small businesses planning to raise prices, increasing wages, rising rent and home prices, and easing financial conditions. Slok points to record-high debt issuance, rising IPO activity, and the stock market reaching new all-time highs as evidence of further economic strength ahead.

#UsFederalReserve #InterestRates #UsEconomy

https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cut-forecast-us-economy-outlook-inflation-torsten-slok-2024-3


Ukraine's war has shown the US its expensive missiles aren't as effective as it thought: report
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The Ukraine war has revealed that the US's expensive missiles are not as effective as previously believed, according to a report by The Washington Post. The conflict has demonstrated that US-made missiles, such as the Himars or Excalibur shells, guided by GPS, are vulnerable to Russian electronic jamming. Russian electronic warfare units have been able to scramble the signals of these missiles, causing them to go off course. In contrast, Ukraine has been using older artillery guided by sensors and drones, which are not as susceptible to electronic warfare tactics. The US is now revising its assumptions about the effectiveness of expensive, precision-guided weapons in winning wars. Lessons from the Ukraine war will inform the US' next National Defense Strategy, with a focus on ground warfare, information warfare, and long-range fire capability.

#Ukraine #Us #Missiles #Warfare #ElectronicWarfare

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-war-showed-us-precision-missiles-not-effective-russia-report-2024-2


US Economy Facing Credit Card Crisis As Debt Soars
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US consumers are struggling with soaring credit card debt and rising interest rates. The number of Americans seeking counseling for credit card debt has increased, particularly among young adults in their 20s. Total household debt in the US has risen by over 24% since 2019, with credit card balances growing the fastest. Delinquent credit card balances have more than doubled in the past two years. Interest rates on credit cards have also increased, with the average American spending $1,140 per year on credit card interest and fees alone. The use of buy now, pay later programs has also contributed to the credit card crisis. While the US economy has avoided a recession, there are concerns that the soft landing could be rougher than expected.

#CreditCardDebt #InterestRates #HouseholdDebt #BuyNowPayLater #Recession

https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-debt-interest-rates-consolidation-economy-recession-soft-landing-2024-2


ChatGPT Was Producing Unhinged Answers — and No One Seems to Know Why
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OpenAI's chatbot, ChatGPT, has been responding to users with nonsensical answers. Users shared screenshots of ChatGPT responding in gibberish and Spanglish. OpenAI acknowledged the issue and stated that it was investigating the unexpected responses. Speculation about the cause of the problem includes suggestions of hacked systems or hardware issues. Some users believe the issue may be due to corrupted weights in the AI model. The incident highlights the need for more transparency in AI technologies. OpenAI has not provided further comment on the matter.

#Openai #Chatgpt #Ai #Chatbot

https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-giving-users-unhinged-answers-no-one-knows-why-openai-2024-2


Sam Altman Just Reminded Everyone Why OpenAI Is Leading the Pack
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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman unveiled a text-to-video model called Sora. Sora can create high-fidelity videos up to a minute long from text prompts. Altman engaged with users on social media, taking prompt requests for videos they'd like to see created by Sora. The release of Sora could pose threats to the creative industry and raise concerns about the potential misuse of generative AI. Altman's strategy of showcasing Sora's abilities through direct engagement with users contrasts with Google's approach of sharing updates via a blog post. Altman's hype around Sora is gaining attention and overshadowing Google's achievements.

#Openai #Ai #Sora #SamAltman #Text-to-videoModel

https://www.businessinsider.com/sam-altman-openai-video-text-model-creator-sora-leading-google-2024-2


The US economy is booming — but Japan and the UK just slipped into recession. Here's why.
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Japan and the UK have slipped into recession, while the US economy is booming. Japan's economy shrank by 0.4% in the final quarter of 2023, following a 3.3% slump in the previous quarter. The weakening yen and an aging and shrinking population are contributing factors. The UK's economy contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2023, marking its second consecutive quarterly contraction. The country is facing a cost-of-living crisis, weak spending, and the impact of leaving the European Union in 2016. The recession news is particularly challenging for UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who is preparing for a general election later this year.

#UsEconomy #Recession #Japan #Uk #Gdp #Yen #Population #Cost-of-livingCrisis #Brexit #RishiSunak

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-japan-uk-low-growth-yen-pound-rishi-sunak-2024-2


A soft landing is now 'most unlikely scenario' for the US, Apollo's chief economist says
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A soft landing is now 'most unlikely scenario' for the US, with a less than 50% chance of it happening, Apollo's chief economist Torsten Sløk says. The economy is in a fragile equilibrium between easing financial conditions and the lagged effects of the Fed's rate hikes. Sløk believes there is now a higher than 50% chance of either a hard landing or no landing. The easing financial conditions have strengthened the job market, but the lagged effects of the Fed's rate hikes are slowing down consumers, firms, and bank lending. The economy is currently in a precarious balance between these two forces.

#UsEconomy #SoftLanding #Recession

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-federal-reserve-interest-rates-cuts-soft-landing-us-economy-2024-2


Tunnel complex with rows of computer servers discovered under UN aid agency HQ in Gaza, reports say
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The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) discovered a Hamas complex under a UN aid agency's headquarters in Gaza. The IDF found the entrance to a tunnel near a school run by the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), which was connected to a tunnel underneath the agency's main HQ in Gaza City. The tunnel contained electrical infrastructure and rows of computer servers powered by the UNRWA's building. Journalists from outlets, including The Wall Street Journal, visited the site. The UNRWA called for an independent inquiry into the reports. The agency has faced accusations of staff members being linked to Hamas attacks on Israel. The UNRWA plays a key role in facilitating aid delivery and providing services in Gaza. Israel's attacks on Gaza have caused a humanitarian crisis, with a high population facing food insecurity and displacement.

#Gaza #Hamas #Idf #Unrwa #Israel

https://www.businessinsider.com/tunnel-complex-computer-servers-discovered-un-aid-hq-gaza-idf-2024-2


US CEOs say they are feeling optimistic about the economy for the first time in 2 years
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US CEOs are feeling upbeat about the state of the US economy, with optimism outweighing pessimism for the first time in two years, according to The Conference Board. The latest Measure of CEO Confidence showed a reading of 53 in the first quarter of 2024, up from 46 in the fourth quarter of 2023. Factors contributing to the positive outlook include reduced inflation, a robust labor market, and the potential for rate cuts. However, CEOs remain cautious about risks ahead, including the 2024 US presidential race, increased regulations, and elevated interest rates. Major global concerns for business include ongoing conflicts, deglobalization, and US-China tensions. CEOs also highlighted potential positive developments such as resolution to military conflicts, AI advancements, and potential rate cuts.

#UsCeos #UsEconomy #Optimism #TheConferenceBoard

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ceo-economy-optimistic-first-time-two-year-inflation-labor-2024-2


The 'zombie economy' is haunting the stock market and stoking uncertainty, strategist says
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The stock market has been jittery due to the presence of 'zombie companies' with unsustainable business models. The chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity, Tony Dwyer, referred to this as a 'zombie economy' that has contributed to market volatility as interest rates have risen. The high costs of debt have exposed cracks in the commercial real estate sector, leading to a recent decline in New York Bancorp's stock. Despite the uncertainty, the US economy has shown strong GDP growth and jobs data. Dwyer suggests that lower interest rates would be a solution to the zombie economy. However, a rate cut in March is unlikely, but there is a 55% chance of a rate cut in May according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

#ZombieEconomy #StockMarket #Uncertainty #InterestRates #CommercialRealEstate #Debt

https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-stock-market-debt-real-estate-fed-rates-zombie-2024-2


Maryland Senate Candidate Angela Alsobrooks: 'First Chances' Will Boost US
==========

Maryland Senate candidate Angela Alsobrooks emphasizes the importance of 'first chances' in boosting societal outcomes and economic growth. She believes that investing in humans is crucial for true economic opportunity, citing examples such as a child tax credit to help families afford daycare. Alsobrooks, a former prosecutor, is running to become Maryland's first Black senator and wants to address issues like cost-of-living, affordable housing, and public safety. She also advocates for the elimination of the filibuster in the Senate to overcome legislative blockages. If elected, Alsobrooks would potentially be part of a small cohort of Black women in the upper chamber.

#MarylandSenate #AngelaAlsobrooks #EconomicGrowth #FirstChances #Filibuster

https://www.businessinsider.com/maryland-alsobrooks-interview-senate-campaign-economy-first-chances-filibuster-2024-2


Giraffes Might Be the Next Banned Thing on China's Social Media
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Giraffes might be the next thing banned on China's social media. A US Embassy post about giraffes became a gathering place for online dissent in China, with comments complaining about China's economy. China's blue-chip index, the CSI 300, has been tumbling amid weakening confidence in consumer spending. Weibo's heavy moderation and censorship often mean Chinese users rely on sarcasm and veiled references to express their discontent. Winnie the Pooh and Peppa Pig have been banned from social media in China. Plain old giraffes haven't been outright banned from Weibo, but some giraffe-related hashtags have been blocked. Several posts discussing the giraffe censorship remain on the platform.

#China #SocialMedia #Censorship #Giraffes #Weibo

https://www.businessinsider.com/giraffes-might-be-next-banned-thing-on-china-social-media-2024-2


Alternative School Has No Grades, Tests, Homework; Here's How It Works
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Adrienne Bergthold sent her son, Jasper, to the Arts and Ideas Sudbury School, a K-12 school based on the philosophy of allowing kids to make their own decisions about education. The school has no grades, tests, or homework. Students learn by playing and pursuing their interests, with staff members guiding them. The school follows the Sudbury School educational philosophy, where students make decisions about their own education and participate in making and enforcing school rules. There is no formal curriculum or classrooms, and students have the freedom to play outside, work on projects, or attend workshops on topics they are interested in. The school also offers field trips and activities organized by the students. The only requirement is that students attend school for five consecutive hours, including the core hours of 11-3 p.m. To receive a diploma, students write and defend a thesis about how they have prepared for the real world. Jasper graduated in 2023 and is currently taking a gap year before attending college. The school provides a stress-free environment for students to fall in love with learning and encourages interaction between students of different ages. The author believes that the school gave her son a happy childhood and helped him grow into a secure adult.

#AlternativeEducation #SudburySchool #Grades #Tests #Homework

https://www.businessinsider.com/alternative-sudbury-school-no-grades-tests-homework-2024-2