'Sooner than expected' — 'Faster than previously thought' — 'Worse than was predicted' — Why do we keep hearing this over and over?

As the article excerpted below suggests, it's due to the difficulty of assessing risks and judging odds when climate tipping points are involved...
________________________

Many current changes are at the upper limit of scientific projections, and sometimes beyond them. This year, heat records have been smashed, and global ocean surface temperatures are at the top of the projected range. Other events, including sea-surface warming in the North Atlantic and the eye-watering decline of sea ice around Antarctica, have simply astounded scientists.

“On the one hand, we knew these things were going to happen. These have been the predictions for a long time,” Claudia Tebaldi, a scientist at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, told the Washington Post earlier this year. “But this year, in particular, has seemed so extreme. The size of the anomalies is surprising.”

This year, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, or AMOC, has become a flashpoint for debating how to express and explain climate risk. This phenomenon refers to the complex web of ocean currents covering the breadth and length of the Atlantic, from the Southern Ocean to the Arctic, which help regulate global weather patterns.

This system has already slowed by 15% since the mid-20th century, and in 2021 researchers concluded there is “strong evidence that the AMOC is indeed approaching a critical, bifurcation-induced transition” (in other words, a tipping point) but the timing was unclear.

Stefan Rahmsdorf, a professor of physics of the oceans at Potsdam University in Germany, said that while there is still “large uncertainty where the tipping point of the AMOC is, the scientific evidence now is that we can’t even rule out crossing a tipping point in the next decade or two. The conservative IPCC estimate, based on climate models which are too stable, is in my view outdated now.”
________________________

There's much more in this highly informative piece from the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, and I suggest you read the whole thing.

FULL ARTICLE -- https://thebulletin.org/2023/09/betting-against-worst-case-climate-scenarios-is-risky-business/

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency


"Green Growth" will not stop climate change. It will only continue to make things worse. And there is no such thing as "sustainable" capitalism. That is simply an impossibility.

Let's look into it...
_____________________________

With global temperatures soaring to record highs, it might be worthwhile to check in on the progress of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), signed into law by President Biden one year ago.

Passage of the act was met with accolades. Mainstream environmentalists declared it a “game changer” and a “seismic shift.”

But are we actually on track to avert climate catastrophe? How much money is being spent, and where is it being targeted? Are there trends we can identify at this early stage? To state the obvious, time is not on our side, and an assessment of where we stand in terms of benchmarks and emissions is crucial.

Arguably, the sector where the IRA has had the most immediate impact is the manufacturing of electric vehicles, identified as a primary goal towards “decarbonizing” the transportation system.

For example, Ford Motor Company, whose profit last year was more than $23 billion, was given 9 billion taxpayer dollars to build an electric vehicle factory in Tennessee. Even with the substandard wages they will pay their workers in that “right-to-work” state, Ford claimed it needed this “incentive” to compete with Chinese auto manufacturers.

Setting aside the corporate-friendly way the law encourages the build-out of this new industry, can anyone really believe it is “green”? Is there any accounting for the embedded emissions, not to mention the overall ecological impact, involved in replacing 275 million private vehicles with shiny new electric ones?

Already 52 new mining and manufacturing projects have been announced — with $56 billion in investment proposed.
_____________________________

The article goes on to examine other #greenwashing initiatives, like direct air capture and so-called green hydrogen, along with the push for even more consumer-driven economic growth.

FULL STORY -- https://systemchangenotclimatechange.org/article/let-a-million-evs-bloom-the-ira-one-year-later/

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual

https://climatejustice.social/system/media_attachments/files/111/029/648/934/455/027/original/3d5232a7b3f618ad.jpg


"It’s time for global leaders to start telling the truth. We will not limit warming to 1.5°C. We will not limit warming to 2°C."

That's from climatologist Andrew Weaver, a professor at the School of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria in Canada.

He continues: "It’s all hands on deck now to prevent 3°C global warming — a level of warming that will wreak havoc worldwide."

This alarming statement comes as it is confirmed that Earth has just had its hottest three months on record.

FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.euronews.com/green/2023/09/06/its-time-to-start-telling-the-truth-is-summers-record-heat-a-sign-of-climate-breakdown
CHART SOURCE -- https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/earth-had-hottest-three-month-period-record-unprecedented-sea-surface (title added by me)

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

https://climatejustice.social/system/media_attachments/files/111/029/469/103/664/144/original/4d8ebd6737edd47a.jpeg


If you’re looking for great accounts to follow, here are some of my favorites! 👏

nostr:npub17al5mufw9xljhc8v2e4n5l6m776yrzmssf653mc6gzuuw434euqsggkxtx
nostr:npub144khxlnlpe6slvlz9k5emrjhs5hmqu5mv7c9e30hn30nm7gqf8gqard490
nostr:npub1lnjdsthc7ftud8qjn3ffxvaxzlscp9n3dl38qwdmt0czj4e7ry6qde4p4k
nostr:npub1k4f8uusq737u7pvve52ydk783c4kf542vzee66dznzs4j3qplqkqyqhjgz
nostr:npub1dzxlj75ctjaqjyuhu7cud9ssgk0gcaghpyq2t85u6nrgrcz4w6mq6540ny
nostr:npub1gwdgsr5dm5z3m2fxz4ulgq2cej0th92ceqefzqyqgqawycj00hcq8l3lhr
nostr:npub17l53azm7tjr03tqm4mszgnls9thk9h5asr5c0eawgkaeurg75fjse6za2f

#FollowFriday


It's so hard to remain optimistic or to take a positive view about the condition of our world...
_______________________

Carbon dioxide (CO2), the predominant greenhouse gas, is emitted from the combustion of fossil fuels like oil, coal, and gas, as well as from deforestation and cement production.

In 2021, some 37.12 billion tons of CO2 was emitted across the globe. According to Oxfam, the richest 10% of the world’s population is responsible for more than half of all carbon emissions.

Africa’s carbon emissions are dwarfed by the emissions of other continents. At 11.47 billion tons, China is the world’s largest polluter, followed by the United States (5 billion tons), India (2.7 billion tons), Russia (1.75 billion tons), and Japan (1.07 billion tons).

Comprising about 17% of the world’s population, Africa contributes just 4% of global carbon emissions at 1.45 billion tons.
_______________________

The strongest and richest are doing the damage, while the weakest and poorest are paying the price.

There is no #ClimateJustice. Certainly not today, and maybe not ever.

FULL STORY -- https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/4/how-much-does-africa-contribute-to-global-carbon-emissions

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual #CO2 #Emissions

https://climatejustice.social/system/media_attachments/files/111/024/143/474/869/855/original/943339197f953993.webp


The Juice (nostr:npub1xr5qwa8de8qnvt9w9awt5ad3w2ktkc3mweg9xpvuxec7ngwwylwqqm70ms), which generally focuses its wickedly satirical attention on Australia, now takes on Canada.

And wow, this one is a doozy. 😜  It's extremely funny, but when you think about it, it's also very sad. 😢  And finally, it's infuriating! 🤬

WATCH -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u7s-BgfcFXw

#Canada #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Capitalism


Nothing does more damage to the climate and the environment than burning coal. Yet world leaders continue to build and expand their coal-fired power plants year after year after year...
____________________________

New research has shown that G20 per capita coal emissions are continuing to rise. According to a study published on 5 September by Ember, between 2015 and 2022, per capita G20 coal emissions rose by 9%.

These coal-based emissions are increasing despite climate pledges and transition efforts from some members of the group of major economies. The group’s leaders will meet in New Delhi this weekend for its main annual summit. Collectively, the countries in the forum account for 80% of global power sector emissions.

During talks in July, the G20 failed to agree that global emissions should peak by 2025. Moreover, it fell short of jointly committing to massively ramp up renewable energy use.

Countries like the UK are no climate role models. While it has lowered coal-based emissions, the UK government has continued to double down on fossil fuel production. For instance, in December, the fossil-fuel-friendly government granted planning permission for a new coal mine in Cumbria. Plus, it has yet to rule out the environmentally-ruinous Rosebank project. Over its lifetime, oil field alone would produce the emissions equivalent of burning 56 coal-fired power plants for an entire year.

Other countries ditching coal haven’t been much better. Despite its commitment to phase out coal, Germany has instead ramped up its production and restored coal plants. The Environmental Justice Foundation found that in 2022, 8.4% more coal-generated energy was fed into the German grid than in 2021. Previous Ember research also demonstrated that Germany and Poland generate two-thirds of the EU’s coal emissions.

Meanwhile, other countries – including G20 host India, along with Indonesia and China – all increased their coal emissions.

Last year, rich nations pledged $20 billion to Indonesia to help it wean itself off coal. However, Ember found that its per capita emissions from the fuel jumped 56% from 2015. In early August, Indonesia’s capital city Jakarta experienced severe spikes in toxic air pollution.

Notably, air pollution levels in the megalopolis of about 30 million people have risen to some of the highest in the world in recent months. According to Swiss air monitor IQAir, the smog levels have topped global rankings multiple times since the beginning of August.

The Ember report also said that even some countries that achieved reductions in their coal emissions continue to emit far above the global average on a per capita basis. Ember’s Dave Jones said, "China and India are often blamed as the world’s big coal power polluters. But when you take population into account, South Korea and Australia were the worst polluters still in 2022."

For instance, Australia is currently the world’s second-largest exporter of thermal coal, after Indonesia. In addition, the country is the largest exporter of metallurgical coal, which is used in steel making.
____________________________

Plenty of bad actors everywhere, all around the world. No wonder the climate crisis is spiraling out of control.

FULL ARTICLE -- https://www.thecanary.co/global/2023/09/06/g20-coal-emissions-continue-to-rise-despite-climate-pledges/

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #Capitalism #BusinessAsUsual


Earth has a fever. We're breaking all previous records for high temperatures. And next year will be even hotter...
_____________________________

The summer of 2023 was the hottest ever recorded, as the climate crisis and emerging El Niño pushed up temperatures and drove extreme weather across the world.

In June, July, and August – the northern hemisphere summer – the global average temperature reached 16.77C, which was 0.66C above the 1991 to 2020 average. The new high is 0.29C above the previous record set in 2019, a big jump in climate terms.

“Our planet has just endured a season of simmering – the hottest summer on record. Climate breakdown has begun,” said UN secretary general António Guterres. “Scientists have long warned what our fossil fuel addiction will unleash. Our climate is imploding faster than we can cope with, with extreme weather events hitting every corner of the planet.”

Heatwaves, fires, and floods have destroyed lives and livelihoods across the globe, from North and South America, to Europe, India, Japan, and China.

Dr Friederike Otto, at Imperial College London, said: “Breaking heat records has become the norm in 2023. Global warming continues because we have not stopped burning fossil fuels. It is that simple."
_____________________________

FULL STORY -- #Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency

https://climatejustice.social/system/media_attachments/files/111/023/552/783/411/312/original/ab678d3368121596.png


nostr:npub1cuwc7q5gyx8d52ghx6lzkxlcr39w3rs7syg49pc5zrp55knldc4s2suzy6
Very very worrisome ⬆


Wildfires, floods, dams bursting, human lives lost, ecosystems destroyed — who should pay for all this? You and me?

HELL NO!

#Environment #Climate #ClimateChange #ClimateCrisis #ClimateEmergency #ClimateJustice #Capitalism

https://climatejustice.social/system/media_attachments/files/110/899/268/180/659/078/original/38a74e2ce1c4a2a5.jpeg