今天看到4900万刀/BTC这个关于价格的说法，觉得很是离谱，虽然我们都知道在金融市场，价格是围绕价值上下波动的，而且价格对价值的偏离经常也没谱儿，但4900万…我还是表示理解不能，希望Michael Saylor在方便的时候还是能简单介绍一下他的估值模型。

搜索了一下，原来我自己也还从来没在这里聊过BTC的价值估算。
这里简单透露一下结论吧，BTC的价值将要经历下面一些主要估值关口

15.2万USD/BTC
28万USD/BTC
36万USD/BTC
61万USD/BTC
248万USD/BTC
1270万USD/BTC

刚刚说过，价格围绕价值波动，所以实际价格走势不是简单的触碰到价值然后就反转，而是必定过冲，然后折返，长期事后观察就会看到上述几个关口的枢轴作用。
这其中，1270万刀是个类似于无限逼近的价值上限，当然价格一定也会突破这个上限，然后被拉回，收敛于1270万，但是接近价值极限的情况下，市场参与者的情绪几乎不可能将这个价格偏离打到超过20%-30%，任何超过1650万的价格预测，我都有理由质疑其没有有效的模型支撑，纯属信口开河语不惊人死不休。

给出以上结论的估值模型，是以币本位观点计算，然后按美元通胀历史数据计算美元汇率，将在价格触及每个关键价值节点时重新进行修正计算。


所有人都知道这是镇压韭菜的时候用来运兵的，然而韭菜们欢欣鼓舞…


My original words are about a method:
1. among the 2048 words in BIP-39, cut the first 4 letters out first
2. delete all the words containing these 10 letters, leaving only about 600 candidate words.
3. to uniquely express 12 seed words, each taking the first 4 letters requires 48 letters. Only 46 are given here, so there are 2 words that are 3 letters long, and there are 10 words are 4 letters in length.
4.  run a letter counting program for random combinations of 12 words on the compiled 600-length word list

It's hard to understand from these words that all seed words longer than 4 letters are excluded, right?


Yes, this is my hometown, my parents still live there, right in the center of this picture.


是全片金句频出…


It is enough to read only this sentence in the whole article:

China intends to open up its market to attract foreign investment.

Because without foreign investment, the internal circulation will soon prove to be a dead end.


想多了，电动车对于美国来说就是看什么时候关门打狗的事儿…


拜登为什么不去劝哈马斯释放剩余的全部被绑人质呢？因为根本就没人听他逼逼嘛…
所以你看，野蛮不会跟文明讲道理，文明只能跟文明讲道理，面对野蛮的时候文明一点用都没有，只能劝好人向善，这不助纣为虐吗？长此以往，文明为野蛮所灭，在这方面，中国可算是弯道超车引领世界了…


战时是基本没有物资供应的，战时需要的物资必须在战前储备，而货币，不论钞票还是黄金或者比特币，甚至你们的微信支付和支付宝，都只有在战后才有机会用到，如果它们能撑到战后的话…


中国人只会等别人来救，不可能为了自己而争取自救…


喊口号的结果通常不大能持续，这些年你们已经喊过太多了…


怎么？还想来一次天安门大屠杀？


所有党徒，不管他们说什么，唯一的目的是让这个党苟延残喘，让这个非法军政府苟延残喘，有时候党内有一些似乎站在“人民”一边的声音，让党更具麻痹性，但是不要忘了共产主义的本质是暴力推翻社会秩序，建立独裁和红色恐怖统治…


穷游也是旅游，全面内循环就是好！


这是来找奶酪了…


要不转让一统一服务器？


赶紧加价啊，看到祖国和人民受到损失比我自己损失还着急…


再低也读完了中学吧？


中国人心不齐，一个两个还可能跳，人多就不可能了，每个人都会想别人跳了我就不用跳，都在等别人给自己争取利益…


用生命揭露真相的勇士…


实际上是在49年之前，台湾地区就已经在行政上隶属于中华民国了，49年只是中华民国失去了对大陆地区的实际治理…


学废了…


所以四十几岁的人还自称宝宝，七十多年渔民教育结硕果啊…


到处都在转这个诺贝尔科学奖活宝…


一个能说出诺贝尔科学奖的人，他别的话就没必要听了…


院士就是分赃体系中学术界的那一环…


Let's take an example

you have 12 seed words in the following order:

anger animal check effort eight episode just oppose pig possible question sea

By the way, this happens to be one set of possible solutions to your challenge.

I re-encrypted them with my password card as below
https://image.nostr.build/3a4d3f8a72c7cfe3ff77eaa7d256e1b4743024637b5ef0dad4ac0ba137d6d0ad.jpg
 to get the following strings:

h+ike2Tk2hK9!%%+%@7#S9fVhMV^pVMV!h9Tb=2S9&Xe+hs8~npf5eMss

I can write this string of characters on a piece of paper and put it anywhere in the public domain, along with my password card.

If no one else knows the plaintext and substitution rules, then your seed words are safe.

And even you yourself know the plaintext of the 12 words, and you know the ciphertext, and you have this substitution table from my password card, but you still can't backtrack my substitution RULES.

Once you can do that, guess my substitution rules, you can restore another  ciphertexts that I have written on paper and made public:

5hK9!spT&=h+Vs%9K9bXh+hY7fM2&8%+X@e9M2fVhMXspVT^h%Ss@2h+XP

You'll find this is another group of MY seed words:

XXXXXX XXXXXXX XXXXXXX XXXXXX XXX XXXXX XXXXX XXX XXXXXX XXXXX XXXXXX XXXXXXXX

By the way, this group of seed words is another set of possible solutions to your challenge.

can you make it?

As you can see, the key to security becomes the RULES, and it's always easier to memorize the rules than it is to memorize individual ciphers one by one, so I use this card to manage all of my high-strength passwords over 8 years, and I'm sure it can be used to keep the seed words safe as well.


In simple terms, the ciphertext and substitution table are publicly displayed, and without knowing the rules, it is impossible to reverse deduce the plaintext. Even if the plaintext, ciphertext, and substitution table are publicly displayed, it is impossible to reverse deduce the rules. I will give an example to illustrate this later.


Brute force is not feasible for this problem. With the current global computing power, brute force can significantly reduce the search range, but it is still not small enough for luck to play a role in a meaningful time.


In fact, the whole method should be put on fire, not just the most secure part. You can send me these 12 seed words in the correct order in a private message, and I will encrypt them using a public substitution table and send the ciphertext back to you. If you already know the plaintext and the ciphertext, and the table, try to reverse the encryption rules.


no, this challenge is to restore the private key from random characters, which is the security foundation of Bitcoin and cannot be challenged

In fact, the painting gives clues to restore the 12 seed words in the correct order, as the author said, this is a simple substitution cypher, it is impossible to restore it by just have the seed plate, and you can't even start guessing with just the painting, only by putting the seed plate and the painting together can you solve the private key.

And as I told the author, the password management tool I have actually used for the past 8 years can also be used for seed word encryption, which allows to publish seed plate and painting at the same time and still be unbreakable


there are too many collisions with just 46 letters, you need to reveal  corresponding painting to narrow down the scope


制度性的恶，是吃什么不吃什么的问题吗？有那工夫列黑名单，为什么不离开那种屎坑？


I don't think this information is helpful, in other words, in practice to resist reverse derivation, the attack vectors won't contain this information.


A little guess on it, the 10 letters b, d, k, l, r, v, w, x, y, z do not appear in this character set, therefore, among the 2048 words in BIP-39, cut the first 4 letters out first, and then delete all the words containing these 10 letters, leaving only about 600 candidate words.
 On the other hand, to uniquely express 12 seed words, each taking the first 4 letters requires 48 letters. Only 46 are given here. Therefore, there are, and only 2 words that are 3 letters long, and there are 10 words are 4 letters in length.
 If this guess is correct, it should be feasible to run a letter counting program for random combinations of 12 words on the compiled 600-length word list, but this may cause collisions, different combinations may produce the same letter count.
FYI.


Basically, I use such a card to manage passwords. Of course, there is no problem in recording the seed words. You can even display the card and the cipher text publicly, and no one can restore the seed words. https://image.nostr.build/04ba7957788a84288b7ea4eb8927b102e0f4b9784dd8bcfadfbf9753b920035a.jpg


I understand that this is a substitution, but the introduction of 44 new symbols is inconvenient for users.
In fact, I currently use a credit card-sized metal card, with a one-to-many substitution table on the card face, and then switch the substitution set through the rules I define, as long as the rules are kept secret, your plaintext will be safe no matter the ciphertext is displayed publicly, or the card face and ciphertext are displayed at the same time. FYI.


It seems like a working solution, but it seems a bit complicated, looking forward to try out your ideas soon. Keep up the good work👍


It seems to be purely a work of art and has no practical use.

I'm actually working on a metal card for managing passwords, so I thought there was some other solution here that would inspire me


How does this work?


其实不会说话可以学李总理不说…


也不能这么说，毕竟让一个草包背下所有提问和标准答案，还是有可能会说错…


实际上比特币最终的实际价值主要由全球金储动态价值决定，一个比特币估值模型除了包含节点数量，活跃钱包数量，交易量，应用数量和流通量这些常见模型中使用的变量以外，最重要的变量之一就是金储替代率…


所有能杀的都杀完了，就轮到自己了…


这种做法毫无疑问是正确的，只要国家这个过时的概念还继续存在，国家政府就要以国民直接利益为先，否则公民身份就没有价值。


并不是语言或者文字的问题，语言文字是思想的载体，从载体的角度来说，汉语和中文是有优势的。问题出在统治阶级希望被统治者保持愚昧，所以在中国的教育体制下，逻辑是一种禁忌。
如果有兴趣探讨世界主流语言文字之间的优劣对比，以及幼童学习语言的建议，我可以抽空写篇长文讲述。


相信这样的段子本身就是缺乏独立思考能力的表现…


是的，这个有个术语，叫郭文贵化😂


不便子女往返搬运赃款，一定要反对…


瑙鲁跟中华民国建交二十几年，稳定发展经济二十几年，然后被策反三五年，从墙国拿三五年美金，然后再回归中华民国二十几年，如此循环，各个待发达国家都学会了…