Fed survey finds inflation fading as a risk next to debt, trade wars
==========

The Federal Reserve survey indicates that financial professionals are more concerned about rising US debt, potential recession, and global trade risks than inflation following Donald Trump's election on Nov 5, 2024. The survey highlights US fiscal debt sustainability as the top risk, with increased Treasury issuance potentially crowding out private investment. Bond market behavior shows rising yields on 10-year Treasury notes despite recent Fed rate cuts. Concerns about global trade barriers and their impact on inflation and economic activity have also increased. Inflation, previously the top risk, has fallen to sixth place in the current survey. The survey was conducted from August to October 2024 among financial sector participants. Trump's anticipated tax cuts and tariffs may exacerbate inflation and federal deficits. The financial system appears solid but faces pressures, with rising delinquency on some loans and concerns about elevated asset values and stablecoins.

#FederalReserve #Inflation #Debt #TradeWars #Trump #FinancialStability #BondMarket #Treasury #Economy #Survey

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/735148 

 Roads To Prosperity:  Middle powers will make a multipolar world
==========

China's rise challenges US hegemony; US enjoyed economic primacy since Soviet Union's collapse; middle powers include India, Indonesia, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey, Nigeria; their combined GDP exceeds US GDP and projected to grow by 50% by 2029; middle powers reject alignment with US or China; driven closer to China due to US policies; leaders refuse to be pawns in a new cold war; Brazil proposes global wealth tax during G20 presidency; BRICS expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, UAE; hegemonic stability theory suggests a supervening power is needed for global economy; current major economies fail to provide necessary global public goods; middle powers can demonstrate feasibility of multipolarity; Dani Rodrik is a Professor at Harvard Kennedy School.

#MiddlePowers #Multipolarity #GlobalEconomy #China #Us #Brics #Trade #Development #ClimateChange #PublicGoods

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734336 

 US weekly jobless claims hit seven-month low
==========

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell by 6,000 to 213,000 for the week ended Nov 16, the lowest since April; unemployment rolls increased to levels last seen in late 2021; economists estimated strikes and storms subtracted 100,000 to 125,000 jobs from payrolls in October; nonfarm payrolls increased by only 12,000 jobs in October; the Federal Reserve may consider a third interest rate cut next month; Carl Weinberg stated there is no sign of recession; the Boeing strike ended early November; the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points earlier this month, lowering the benchmark rate to 4.50%-4.75%; the data covered the period for November's employment report.

#JoblessClaims #Unemployment #FederalReserve #LaborMarket #EconomicData #BoeingStrike #Hurricanes #EmploymentReport #InterestRates #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734963 

 Trump administration plans to roll back Biden's stricter fuel-efficiency standards
==========

President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration plans to roll back fuel-efficiency standards set by President Joe Biden; this move aims to fulfill a campaign promise to 'end the EV mandate'; Biden's regulations require automakers to produce at least 35% electric vehicles (EVs) by 2032; Trump administration expected to direct the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to reconsider Biden's regulations; Trump's transition team plans to eliminate the US$7,500 consumer tax credit for EV purchases; during Trump's first term, it took nearly three years to overturn Obama-era regulations; automakers have lobbied for less stringent rules, claiming Biden's regulations are too onerous; Tesla, led by Elon Musk, could be negatively impacted as it profits from selling regulatory credits; analysts suggest Tesla's reliance on credit sales has decreased as the company has become profitable; the article was published on November 20, 2024.

#Trump #Biden #Fuelefficiency #ElectricVehicles #Tesla #Regulations #Automakers #Transition #Epa #Nhtsa

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734602 

 Copper inches higher as dollar rally pauses; China demand woes weigh on market
==========

Copper prices rose 0.5% to US$9,114.50 per metric tonne on the LME; December copper contract on SHFE increased 0.6% to 74,250 yuan; US dollar pulled back after reaching a one-year high; concerns over China's slowing economic growth and potential US tariffs weigh on market; Trump plans to impose tariffs over 60% on Chinese imports; Ed Meir predicts LME copper prices to range between US$8,900 and US$9,200 in the next six weeks; downside forecast for next year at US$8,000 and upside at US$10,500; China to reduce or cancel export tax rebates for aluminium and copper products.

#Copper #Market #China #UsTariffs #Economy #Lme #Shfe #Aluminium #Nickel #Zinc

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734451 

 Brookfield’s BofA Tower in LA sees 69% decline in appraised value
==========

Brookfield’s BofA Tower in LA appraised at US$188.9 million, down from US$605 million 10 years ago; represents a 69% decline; US office values fell 53% from March 2022 to September 2024; downtown LA office availability rate at 38% in Q3 2024; US office CMBS delinquency rate rose to 9.3% in October 2024; BofA Plaza has US$400 million in commercial mortgage-backed security debt; loan matured on Sept 1, 2024; 79% leased as of July 2024; Brookfield DTLA portfolio has defaulted on US$2.2 billion in debt; Gas Company Tower sold for up to US$200 million; Brookfield Corp president Nick Goodman noted US$30 billion in financings executed recently.

#Brookfield #BofaTower #AppraisedValue #CommercialRealEstate #LosAngeles #OfficeMarket #VacancyRates #Debt #FinancialNews #Msci

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734438 

 Musk's political ascendancy stirs hopes of redemption for X banks
==========

Elon Musk's political rise is raising hopes for Wall Street banks to offload US$13 billion of debt linked to his purchase of X (formerly Twitter); banks including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America are optimistic that Musk's ties to President-elect Donald Trump could enhance X's prospects; Musk acquired X for US$44 billion in 2022; X's web traffic peaked at 46.5 million visits the day after the US elections; however, 115,000 users deactivated their accounts on Nov 6, 2024; banks have marked down the debt's value and are considering options after X reports its finances next month.

#ElonMusk #X #Debt #WallStreet #Trump #SocialMedia #Finance #Banks #Advertising #WebTraffic

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734212 

 US October industrial production falls on strike, hurricane disruptions
==========

US industrial production declined by 0.3% in October 2024; Boeing workers' 53-day strike reduced industrial production by 0.5 percentage points in September and October; manufacturing output fell by 0.5% in October after a 0.3% drop in September; aerospace equipment output plunged 5.8% in October following an 8% decline in September; Hurricanes Milton and Helene contributed to a 0.1 percentage point reduction in October production; Boeing delivered only 14 jetliners in October, the lowest in nearly four years; elevated borrowing costs and a pause in capital spending hinder US manufacturing growth.

#IndustrialProduction #Boeing #Hurricanes #Manufacturing #EconomicDecline #LaborStrike #Aerospace #FederalReserve #UsEconomy #October2024

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734194 

 Casinos may lead Philippines IPO revival in 2025, top bank says
==========

Philippine casinos Okada Manila and Hann Casino Resort may revive IPO plans in 2025, targeting to raise around US$200 million each; BDO Capital's Gabriel Lim and Eduardo Francisco discuss potential market recovery; Philippine shares in technical correction due to economic growth concerns and US election uncertainties; only three companies listed in 2024, missing IPO targets; BDO's stock index estimate revised amid global uncertainties; optimism remains for the consumption-driven economy despite challenges.

#Philippines #Ipo #Casinos #StockMarket #BdoCapital #OkadaManila #HannCasino #EconomicGrowth #Investments #FinancialNews

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734085 

 Japan's economy slows in 3Q on tepid capex; consumption picks up
==========

Japan's economy expanded by an annualised 0.9% in Q3 2024, slowing from 2.2% in Q2; private consumption rose 0.9%, exceeding the 0.2% estimate; capital spending fell 0.2%; net external demand reduced growth by 0.4 points; economist Kengo Tanahashi noted the consumption increase was surprising; Bank of Japan maintains ultra-low rates; risks from US economy and potential tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump could impact exports.

#Japan #Economy #Gdp #Consumption #CapitalSpending #Exports #BankOfJapan #EconomicGrowth #KengoTanahashi #DonaldTrump

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/734078 

 US mortgage rates rose again in week after Trump’s victory
==========

US mortgage rates increased following Donald Trump's presidential election victory; 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose five basis points to 6.86% for the week ending Nov 8, 2024; this marks a 72 basis point increase over six weeks, the largest in two years; mortgage rates are influenced by treasury yields, affecting Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions; MBA's refinancing gauge fell for the seventh consecutive week, while home purchase applications saw a slight increase; MBA survey covers over 75% of US retail residential mortgage applications.

#MortgageRates #Trump #Economy #Inflation #FederalReserve #HousingMarket #Refinancing #InterestRates #RealEstate #Usa

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733924 

 Senate GOP elects Thune as leader, rejecting Musk’s pick
==========

John Thune, 63, elected as Republican Senate majority leader on November 14, 2024; defeated Rick Scott, backed by Elon Musk, and John Cornyn; Mitch McConnell steps down after 18 years; Thune aims to reset relationship with President-elect Donald Trump; Thune supports free trade and Ukraine aid, opposing Trump's tariffs; Thune has served 20 years in the Senate since defeating Tom Daschle in 2004; he will preserve the Senate's filibuster rule; Thune is a leading advocate for repealing the estate tax; Trump expressed support for Thune on Truth Social.

#Senate #Republican #Thune #Trump #Musk #Leadership #Politics #FreeTrade #Ukraine #Filibuster

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733887 

 Republican sweep gives Trump power to slash taxes, may strain deficits
==========

Republicans' control in Washington allows President-elect Donald Trump to pursue tax cuts for businesses, workers, and retirees; Trump's early priorities include extending 2017 tax cuts, funding the U.S.-Mexico border wall, cutting unspent funds, eliminating the Department of Education, and curbing agency powers; U.S. national debt stands at $35 trillion with a deficit of $1.83 trillion in fiscal 2024; 62% of Americans believe Trump's policies will increase national debt; Republicans may use budget reconciliation to pass tax cuts; Trump's proposed tax cuts could add $7.5 trillion to the debt over the next decade; Senator Ron Johnson emphasizes the need for spending cuts to offset tax cuts; first test for Congress expected in January 2025; Mitch McConnell optimistic about narrow majority success.

#Trump #Republicans #TaxCuts #NationalDebt #Congress #BudgetReconciliation #FiscalPolicy #2024Election #GovernmentSpending #Senate

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733885 

 Bitcoin rally cools after more than 30% jump since Trump victory
==========

Bitcoin's price surged by approximately 31% following Donald Trump's election victory on November 5, 2024, reaching a record high of US$89,968 on November 12, 2024. As of November 13, 2024, it was trading at US$87,940. Trump has promised a supportive regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies and plans to establish the US as a global crypto hub. Despite the optimism, analysts caution that significant gains may already be priced in. Dogecoin, influenced by Elon Musk, also saw a price increase, doubling in value recently. Market analysts note that upcoming US inflation data could impact the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, affecting riskier investments like crypto.

#Bitcoin #Trump #Cryptocurrency #Dogecoin #MarketAnalysis #UsElections #Inflation #Investments #CryptoRegulation #ElonMusk

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733783 

 Trump picks Musk, entrepreneur Ramaswamy for govt efficiency effort
==========

President-elect Donald Trump announced on November 13, 2024, that billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy will lead a new Department of Government Efficiency. The department aims to dismantle bureaucracy, cut regulations, and restructure federal agencies, with a completion deadline of July 4, 2026. Musk claims he could cut at least US$2 trillion from the federal budget, which exceeds annual government agency spending. Last fiscal year, the government spent over US$6.75 trillion, with significant portions allocated to Social Security and healthcare. Ramaswamy, who previously ran for the GOP nomination, has been a strong supporter of Trump and shares similar policy views. Trump praised Ramaswamy's capabilities and considered him for a Cabinet position.

#Trump #Musk #Ramaswamy #GovernmentEfficiency #BudgetCuts #FederalAgencies #UsPolitics #2024Election #DepartmentOfGovernmentEfficiency #EntitlementPrograms

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733764 

 IMF holds unusual talks with Pakistan over US$7b bailout
==========

IMF mission chief Nathan Porter initiated talks with Pakistan on November 12, 2024, regarding a US$7 billion bailout approved in September. The discussions are considered unusual as they occur before the first review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) scheduled for Q1 2025. Key officials, including the heads of Pakistan's central bank and federal board of revenue, participated in the meeting. The agenda includes assessing Pakistan's fiscal deficit, which has a revenue shortfall of nearly 190 billion rupees (US$685 million) for the current fiscal year. An external financing gap of US$2.5 billion needed until June 30, 2025, and issues related to the privatization of state-owned enterprises were also on the table. Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb confirmed that all rollovers of loans from friendly nations have been assured.

#Imf #Pakistan #Bailout #Finance #Economy #Loans #FiscalDeficit #Negotiations #ExtendedFundFacility #StateownedEnterprises

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733645 

 Gold hovers near one-month low ahead of US data, Fed speakers
==========

Gold prices are near a one-month low at US$2,622.89 per ounce as of Nov 12, 2024; US dollar is near a four-month high, impacting gold's attractiveness; Market awaits US economic data including October Consumer Price Index on Nov 13, Producer Price Index and jobless claims on Nov 14, and retail sales on Nov 15; Fed officials, including chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak this week; Trump's election victory has raised inflation concerns, affecting gold prices; Fed lowered benchmark rate by 25 bps on Nov 7, with a 66% chance of another cut in December.

#Gold #UsEconomy #FederalReserve #InterestRates #Inflation #MarketAnalysis #PreciousMetals #EconomicData #DonaldTrump #Investors

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733583 

 China nears record US$1 tril trade surplus as Trump returns
==========

China's trade surplus is projected to reach nearly US$1 trillion in 2024; surplus hit US$785 billion in first 10 months, up 16% from 2023; Brad Setser notes significant export volume growth; reliance on exports increases due to weak domestic demand; foreign direct investment liabilities dropped, risking first annual net outflow since 1990; US tariffs expected under Trump administration; surplus with US rose 4.4%, EU by 9.6%, and ASEAN by 36%; trade surplus with India reached US$85 billion, up 3% from 2023; currency war concerns as India may let rupee weaken.

#China #TradeSurplus #Trump #Economy #Exports #Imports #Fdi #Tariffs #CurrencyWar #Asean

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733471 

 UK's Reeves to tout benefits of free trade amid fears of US tariffs
==========

UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves will deliver a keynote speech on November 14, 2024, at the Mansion House, promoting free trade and economic growth while addressing concerns over potential US tariffs under President-elect Donald Trump. Reeves emphasizes the importance of free and open trade for national wealth, warning against Trump's proposed tariffs of up to 20% on imports. She aims to foster partnerships with the financial services sector and reform pensions to unlock investments. The UK-US trade relationship, valued at over £300 million (US$387 million) annually, is crucial, but Trump's protectionist policies may complicate it. Reeves faces pressure from over 200 hospitality sector leaders regarding tax increases, which they argue could lead to job cuts and business closures. She will advocate for long-term stability through tough tax choices despite forecasts of modest economic growth amid a £40 billion tax rise.

#Uk #FreeTrade #UsTariffs #RachelReeves #DonaldTrump #EconomicGrowth #LabourParty #TaxPolicy #FinancialServices #HospitalitySector

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733422 

 Alternative Views: Trump has won but it’s not all gloom and doom for Malaysia
==========

Malaysia's trade-to-GDP ratio historically exceeds 100%; US is more crucial to Malaysia's economy than China; Malaysia is a net exporter to the US, with E&E industry making up 40% of total exports; exports to the US rose from RM98 billion to RM156 billion (50% increase) post-COVID-19; exports to China increased from RM146 billion to RM198 billion (less than 35% increase); Trump plans to impose tariffs of 60% on China imports and 20% on others; potential trade war could impact Malaysia's exports; Fed cut rates to 4.5%-4.75% to stabilize the economy; Trump's policies may conflict with Fed's inflation goals; Malaysia must adapt to potential trade war dynamics.

#Trump #Malaysia #Economy #Trade #Exports #E&eIndustry #Tariffs #Fed #China #Gdp

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733404 

 America’s gig economy workforce holds steady around 10%
==========

A Bureau of Labor Statistics report published on November 8, 2024, shows that approximately 15.5 million people, or 10.2% of the American labor force, are employed in the gig economy. This percentage has remained stable since pre-pandemic levels, with the last report in May 2017 indicating a 10.1% share. The report is based on a special supplement to the Current Population Survey for July 2023. The largest category of gig workers are independent contractors, who tend to be older. Young Americans aged 16 to 24 are four times more likely to have contingent jobs than those aged 25 to 54, with 12.9% of younger workers in gig roles compared to 3.1% of prime-age workers. The preference for permanent jobs among contingent workers has decreased to 45% from over 50% since 2017. The BLS plans to release future estimates on digital platform employment.

#GigEconomy #LaborStatistics #BureauOfLaborStatistics #Employment #IndependentContractors #YouthEmployment #ContingentJobs #UsLaborForce #2023Survey #EconomicTrends

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733323 

 China unveils US$1.4 tril debt swap to help local govts
==========

China announced a 10 trillion yuan (US$1.4 trillion) program to refinance local government debt on November 8, 2024; local governments' debt ceiling raised to 35.52 trillion yuan; six trillion yuan in additional special bonds to be issued over three years; four trillion yuan in new special local bond quota over five years; Finance Minister Lan Fo’an stated the swap could save 600 billion yuan in interest payments; outstanding hidden debt was 14.3 trillion yuan at the end of 2023; China's economy grew 4.6% in Q3 2024, the weakest since March; policymakers pivoting towards supportive policies due to economic slowdown; initial signs of improvement in home sales and manufacturing sectors.

#China #DebtSwap #LocalGovernment #Economy #Finance #LanFo’an #SpecialBonds #HiddenDebt #EconomicGrowth #Trump

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733248 

 Fed to cut rates, but with a new landscape to decipher after Trump win
==========

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its benchmark policy rate by 0.25% on Nov 9, 2024, to a range of 4.5% to 4.75%; Donald Trump won the US election on Nov 5, 2024, potentially leading to GOP control of Congress; Trump's policies may impact economic growth, inflation, and federal deficits; Fed Chair Jerome Powell's term runs through May 2026; market confidence in future rate cuts has weakened, with expectations of a rate ending between 3.75% and 4% by mid-2025; Fed officials state they do not set policy based on administration proposals but respond to economic outcomes.

#FederalReserve #Trump #InterestRates #Economy #Inflation #Congress #Policy #2024Election #JeromePowell #EconomicGrowth

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733157 

 US mortgage rates rise again, with recent jump most in two years
==========

US mortgage rates increased by eight basis points to 6.81% for the week ending Nov 1, 2024; this is the highest rate since July 2024; rates have risen 67bps over the last five weeks, marking the largest increase in two years; the rise in mortgage rates is linked to increasing Treasury yields and speculation around Donald Trump's presidential election victory; MBA's refinancing gauge dropped for the sixth consecutive week, the longest streak since April 2022; the purchase index is at its lowest since August 2024; the MBA survey covers over 75% of US retail residential mortgage applications.

#MortgageRates #UsEconomy #Refinancing #Trump #InterestRates #Mba #TreasuryYields #Homebuying #EconomicData #RealEstate

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/733004 

 Tech pushes stocks higher with vote in full swing
==========

On November 6, 2024, stocks rose with the S&P 500 up 1.2% and the 'Magnificent Seven' tech stocks climbing 1.8%; Palantir Technologies reported strong demand for AI, and Nvidia became the world's largest company, surpassing Apple; markets were calm ahead of the US presidential election, with polls indicating a dead heat; Goldman Sachs noted an 18% chance of a bear market in the next year; volatility is expected post-election, with a 1.8% potential move in the S&P 500 on November 7; the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision is awaited on November 8.

#Stocks #Election #Technology #MarketVolatility #Nvidia #Palantir #S&p500 #GoldmanSachs #FederalReserve #UsEconomy

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732885 

 KPMG to lay off 4% of US audit workforce, source says
==========

KPMG will lay off 4% of its US audit workforce, approximately 330 employees, as reported on November 4, 2024; this decision is part of KPMG's strategy to align workforce size and skills with market demands; the firm has previously announced layoffs affecting 5% of US employees in June 2023 due to economic challenges; KPMG operates in over 143 countries with more than 273,000 employees.

#Kpmg #Layoffs #AuditWorkforce #Us #BigFour #Employment #EconomicChallenges #WorkforceStrategy #Attrition #JobCuts

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732734 

 Trump or Harris win will impact market differently, say analysts
==========

Equity analysts are divided on the impact of the US presidential election on markets; Trump proposes tariffs of up to 20% on imports and 60% on China goods, while Harris plans to raise corporate tax from 21% to 28% and capital gains tax for high earners; analysts believe a Trump win could boost markets, citing past performance post-2016 election; Harris' victory may lead to short-term market pullback; FBM KLCI was up 11.03% year-to-date at 1,615.06 points; analysts maintain year-end targets for FBMKLCI at 1,750 and 1,690; Rakuten Trade raised its target to 1,780; IMF projects global growth at 3.2% for 2024; market sentiment remains cautious ahead of election.

#UsElection #MarketImpact #Trump #Harris #EquityAnalysts #BursaMalaysia #CorporateTax #Imf #FbmKlci #Investors

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732567 

 Rock-steady rupee offers stability during US election uncertainty
==========

The Indian rupee is stable amid US election volatility; supported by RBI's strong foreign exchange reserves; no clear leader in US presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump; hedging costs at highest since early 2020; RBI sold US$10.8 billion to defend rupee; rupee hit record low of 84.1087; RBI governor Shaktikanta Das emphasizes importance of reserves; India's current account deficit manageable at slightly over 1% of GDP; dollar-rupee one-week implied volatility at 3.5250%.

#IndianRupee #UsElections #Rbi #CurrencyStability #ForeignExchange #KamalaHarris #DonaldTrump #Volatility #EconomicPolicy #EmergingMarkets

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732639 

 Finance in the 21st Century: Is China Facing a Deflationary Trap?
==========

China's economy faced a roadblock post-COVID-19 pandemic; household savings increased, businesses reduced investments; concerns arise over a self-reinforcing cycle of declining spending and prices; consumer price index near zero for 16 months, producer price index negative for 24 months; Japan's three-decade deflationary trap serves as a cautionary tale; China's GDP fell from 76% of US level in 2021-23 to 67%, GDP per capita at 15% of US level; central banks should manage money like equity issuance; People's Bank of China (PBOC) lowered key policy rate from 1.7% to 1.5%, encouraging lower mortgage rates; stimulus package includes CN¥1 trillion liquidity, CN¥500 billion swap facility, and CN¥300 billion in loans; A-share market index rose over 20% post-stimulus; priorities include increasing fiscal spending, supporting the private sector, and job creation for vulnerable groups; experts Patrick Bolton and Haizhou Huang advocate for further measures to escape deflation.

#China #Deflation #Economy #Stimulus #Pboc #Gdp #MonetaryPolicy #Investment #PrivateSector #JobCreation

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731854 

 Xi highlights China's employment woes in speech published before US vote
==========

Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasized the challenges in China's employment market in a speech published on November 1, 2024; He noted that China is facing a period of strategic opportunities alongside risks and challenges, particularly in light of tensions with the US; Xi's comments come ahead of the US elections, where Donald Trump has proposed a 60% tariff on China if re-elected; Xi stated that stabilizing growth and employment remains a persistent pressure; The speech, originally delivered in May, signals a shift in policy priorities towards addressing unemployment; Chief economist Zhiwei Zhang suggested that unemployment may become a more significant policy target, potentially increasing the fiscal deficit above 3% next year; The job market is suffering from a property crash and deflation, leading to salary cuts and layoffs across various sectors; Xi pledged to prioritize full employment and youth employment, with recent government measures including cash handouts and expanded scholarships for struggling groups; The State Council will also provide social security benefits to college graduates who remain unemployed two years after graduation.

#China #Employment #XiJinping #UsElections #Economy #Policy #Unemployment #Deflation #GovernmentMeasures #Tariffs

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732393 

 Global economy set to cruise at a solid 3% growth rate next year — Reuters poll
==========

Global economic growth projected at 3% for 2025; US economy shows resilience with 2.8% GDP growth; inflation falling sharply; 500 economists surveyed; US presidential election may impact trade rules; India fastest-growing economy; China to implement $1.4 trillion fiscal stimulus; majority of economists expect lower interest rates by end of 2025; Trump’s proposed tariffs could negatively affect US GDP by -1.4%; 39 out of 42 US economists believe Trump's policies more inflationary than Harris's.

#GlobalEconomy #GdpGrowth #UsEconomy #Inflation #InterestRates #China #India #UsElection #Tariffs #Economists

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732390 

 US hiring in ADP data rises to fastest pace in more than a year
==========

US private payrolls increased by 233,000 in October 2024; September figures revised higher; manufacturing sector lost jobs; education and health services, trade and transportation sectors showed strong job gains; Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist, noted strong labor demand despite hurricane recovery; US economy expanded at an annualized pace of 2.8% in Q3 2024; wage growth slowed, with job changers seeing a 6.2% pay increase and stayers a 4.6% increase; job gains strongest in the South; large employers (500+ workers) added the most positions; ADP data based on payrolls of over 25 million private-sector employees.

#UsHiring #AdpData #JobGrowth #EconomicExpansion #WageGrowth #LaborMarket #EmploymentReport #Hurricanes #BoeingStrike #PrivatePayrolls

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732312 

 US mortgage rates increase to 6.73%, highest since late July
==========

US mortgage rates rose 21 basis points to 6.73% for the week ended Oct 25, 2024; this marks the highest rate since late July; rates have increased nearly 60 basis points in the last four weeks, the most since March 2023; refinancing applications fell 6.3% to the lowest level since July, marking the longest decline in over a year; the index of home purchases rose for the first time in four weeks; rising mortgage rates and high asking prices hinder housing market recovery; mortgage rates are influenced by US treasury yields, which have risen due to steady economic growth; the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) survey has been conducted weekly since 1990, covering over 75% of US retail residential mortgage applications.

#MortgageRates #HousingMarket #Refinancing #UsEconomy #MortgageBankersAssociation #InterestRates #RealEstate #EconomicGrowth #HomePurchases #TreasuryYields

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/732283 

 US stocks rise as traders map out election game plan
==========

US stocks rose on Oct 29, 2024, as traders prepared for the US election and corporate earnings; S&P 500 gained 0.3%, Dow Jones up 0.6%, Russell 2000 climbed 1.6%; Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. surged 22% after Donald Trump's event; 38% of Bloomberg survey respondents expect equities to perform better under Trump; Lisa Shalett from Morgan Stanley noted increased market activity; Callie Cox from Ritholtz Wealth Management highlighted lack of volatility in October; major tech earnings and jobs data expected to influence markets; investors await results from firms representing 42% of S&P 500; bond yields rose to 4.27%; analysts predict market performance will depend on election outcome; Ed Yardeni warned of potential bond vigilantes; Apple Inc. launched new AI features; Boeing Co. announced a $19 billion share sale; Volkswagen AG plans factory closures and job cuts.

#UsStocks #Election #CorporateEarnings #Trump #MarketTrends #BondYields #Apple #Boeing #Volkswagen #FinancialAnalysis

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731948 

 My Say: Petronas and the dangers of fragmentation of our petroleum economy
==========

On Sept 16, 2024, Malaysia celebrated its 60th anniversary; on Oct 18, 2024, the Prime Minister presented Budget 2025. Malaysia's petroleum-related revenue is projected to decline from 41.3% in 2009 to 18.3% in 2025, impacting Petronas' dividends and income tax revenue. The petroleum economy constituted 7.9% of GDP in 2023. Petronas has contributed over RM1.2 trillion since inception until 2021, with significant investments in Sabah and Sarawak. Fragmentation of the oil and gas market poses risks to economic health and investment attraction. The article emphasizes the need for unity among states to support Petronas and warns against political divisions that threaten national cohesion and economic stability.

#Petronas #Malaysia #Economy #OilAndGas #Politics #Budget #Fragmentation #NationalUnity #Gdp #Investment

https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/731808