Yess we had small downtime... all good now!


Well this is new (to me at least) and cool: #bitcoin #lightning prediction market. https://www.bitcoinprediction.info/
#plebchain


I think prediction markets are pretty neat. They were the primary way of predicting the outcome of elections prior to the invention of modern opinion polling.

In recent weeks the polymarket for the US presidential election has noticeably diverged from the polling. The polls have stayed flat, it’s essentially a coin flip as to who will win. The prediction markets have broke to Trump with a 60% chance of winning. Is this a real shift that bettors are seeing vs the polls or is someone manipulating the market. You could make the argument that placing bets on your preferred candidate is a capital efficient way of shifting the outcome. Journalists use the markets to shape their coverage and will start writing articles about momentum when they see the prediction markets shift. Elections are very messy so it’s easy enough to find evidence of momentum in any direction if you’re looking for examples to fit the narrative. And the narrative about a candidate pulling ahead will lead to more press and focus and is likely to help the candidate get more votes on Election Day.

All of this to say it appears one person is attempting to do this in favor of Trump.

https://www.cryptopolitan.com/bettor-trump-harris-betting-pair-polymarket/


What's going on, sir!? We're predicting the future!


Hmmm


SOON


Prediction Markets Like Polymarket A “Public Good”, More Accurate Than Polls

From ZeroHedge

Authored by Daniel Ramirez-Escudero via CoinTelegraph.com, While some say that prediction markets are a risk to democracy, others think they could serve the public by offering valuable insights and risk management tools. Despite recent confrontations with regulators, election markets can provide more accurate insights […]

Oct 7th 2024 3:40pm EDT

Source Link: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/prediction-markets-polymarket-public-good-more-accurate-polls

Share, promote & comment with Nostr: https://dissentwatch.com/boost/?boost_post_id=853955


The track record is not that stellar tbh...


We don't need a bitcoin prediction market*
We need a protocol for open, unstoppable, self-custodial prediction markets.

*since many years we have such, actually


        From: The Spectator Index
        At: Thu Oct 10 18:24:08 +0000 2024

        Chances of winning 🇺🇸 US Presidential Election

Trump: 54% chance
Harris: 46% chance

(Based on polls and prediction markets) https://t.co/PbMRJF78eN


I now see how ecash could actually be a great solution to enable private and anonymous prediction markets with Bitcoin + Lightning.


nostr:npub1uf5krsdawn6t8qq6c9uhsq5gtkk8jlzrau4se9gv9mfkzy4fr7yszdr7fw dm us for invite code


U.S. Election Betting: Court Ends Pause on Kalshi's Congressional Contracts
https://www.coindesk.com/resizer/BWL706C4WDAiY-GAveFGXIrRvtI=/1200x628/center/middle/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/coindesk/M5HRINAWNVEAHBGO4UXJLKK7QU.jpg

The CFTC "has failed to demonstrate that it or the public will suffer irreparable injury absent a stay pending  appeal," an appeals court said, clearing the prediction market to resume listing the contracts.

https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2024/10/02/us-election-betting-court-ends-pause-on-kalshis-congressional-contracts/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines


Cashu?
Prediction markets?
Nostr npub locked coins?
DLC?

What do you think?


Nostr is the perfect identity and information transport layer to enable decentralized prediction markets. Bitcoin is the best monetary layer to facilitate purchasing of shares of event derivatives.

The question is this: what's the most decentralized and secure mechanism to enable tokenized shares of event derivatives similar to polymarket? In order for a prediction market to utilize LMSR (or some LMSR variant) it must have a limit order book to buy/sell shares in such a contract. Furthermore, those shares must be redeemable for Bitcoin after the event occurs.

Current bottleneck in prediction markets on Bitcoin is this token/share mechanism to enable price discovery (and therefore probability forecasting). If we can solve this then we can make a prediction market where anyone can ask any question they want, and provide liquidity to elicit responses from experts (or degens).


Lightning enabled prediction market just dropped, pitty there's no sign in with nostr!

People are already putting their sats where their mouth is, lol

https://beta.predyx.com/


Go ahead and support your local dev by trying out the first prediction market on the Lighting Network ⚡: https://beta.predyx.com/. It's like polymarket but without the USDC shitcoinery.


that was a joke ;)


Lançaram um site de mercado de apostas estilo o polymarket mas usando bitcoin pela lightning, já fiz umas apostas lá só para testar. Quem quiser experimentar, segue o link: https://beta.predyx.com/
 nostr:npub15jcgp02275uw5rsrql7w57gnx6su400dx72gnr7795t565jm4rmqru44hx


https://image.nostr.build/35263c0c23c055b24ac9132f5d93de244734efff36174254b6d68edbab71427a.jpg

Prediction market flip #Pollstr


It’s prediction market time 🕰


i do! but you also seem to have the Alby address already!?


OTC only ;)


How many sats would you bet on it?


https://image.nostr.build/6c9884ab3b5a3cbf7eb726b9300dfc726b6690dcaee6f0307b4f26391865996b.jpg

#Pollstr is coin flip for presidency, with Senate likely becoming REP majority and the house leaning DEM


Did you know decentralized prediction markets just hit a record high, with $148 million locked up? This surge could change the game for crypto betting.

For a long time, decentralized prediction markets struggled to gain traction. Many people were unsure if they could be trusted or if they would ever become a popular choice. Recently, the market dipped to a low of $93 million in August. Skepticism was high, and the future of these platforms seemed uncertain.

But things have taken a surprising turn. The total value locked (TVL) in these markets has skyrocketed over 50% since mid-August. And it's not just a small bump—Polymarket, the largest platform, now holds over $121 million in TVL, accounting for more than 80% of the total market. That’s a massive 1,200% jump since the start of the year! If this growth continues, decentralized prediction markets could soon go mainstream. But there's a catch: with big money comes big risks, and the question of security and regulation still looms large.

𝗧𝗟𝗗𝗥: 𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘴𝘪𝘨𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘳𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘱𝘰𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘢𝘭. 𝘈𝘴 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘰𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘷𝘢𝘭𝘶𝘦 𝘭𝘰𝘤𝘬𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘯𝘦𝘸 𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵𝘴, 𝘸𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢 𝘴𝘩𝘪𝘧𝘵 𝘪𝘯 𝘩𝘰𝘸 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦 𝘪𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴. 𝘞𝘩𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘵’𝘴 𝘢 𝘱𝘢𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘳𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘣𝘦𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘰𝘧 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘣𝘪𝘨, 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭. 𝘉𝘶𝘵 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘪𝘴 𝘤𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘳: 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘳𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘬𝘦𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘨𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘮𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘮, 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘭𝘥 𝘪𝘴 𝘸𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘤𝘭𝘰𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘸𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘨𝘰 𝘯𝘦𝘹𝘵. 𝘈𝘳𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘺 𝘵𝘰 𝘱𝘭𝘢𝘤𝘦 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘣𝘦𝘵?

#Bitcoin #BTC #BTCFi #HODL #BlockCity #BlockCityFi #Satoshi #Freedom #Web3 #Entrepreneur #GrowNostr #MrDecentralize


What big bank will be the first to receive a bailout?


Yes sir, but no Nostr in background (yet)


Yeap, i take more insights from prediction markets, folks putting money on there beliefs is more useful than a photograph of that specific moment


Vital prediction market 😂 https://i.nostr.build/LLDV2WEVL8IunEn2.jpg


Wow, gotta check!


Good luck!


We see them on Nostrudel, as well!


The Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has proposed rules on prediction markets, sparking debate among industry players. Dragonfly Digital Management and Crypto.com have joined Coinbase in criticizing the proposal, citing concerns that it overreaches and stifles innovation. The CFTC's proposed rules would broadly categorize and ban certain event contracts, including those related to gaming and elections.

Critics argue that the proposed definition of gaming is too ambiguous, while others believe that prediction markets offer valuable insights into public opinion and political events. The CFTC must balance its regulatory responsibilities with the need for innovation and economic benefits.

Source: https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2024/08/12/dragonfly-cryptocom-weigh-in-on-cftcs-proposed-prediction-market-rules/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=rss&utm_campaign=headlines


Who will be 2024 TIME Person of the Year?

#predyx #predictionmarkets


Trump chance of winning presidential election

16th of July, 2024: 72%

Now: 46%

(Polymarket)

https://hell.twtr.plus/media/b88fa5370220623890ee6d95169db131ee0b9aa6bf22f12b9a7914eb9abc3f41.file


most certainly


Yes sir!


+ How much did CIA get involved already with all these investments? ;)


Prediction marketplace Polymarket partners with Perplexity to show news summaries

When users click on an event on Polymarket, they will now see a summary of news related to the event based on search results from Perplexity.
© 2024 TechCrunch. All rights reserved. For personal use only. #press

https://techcrunch.com/2024/08/12/prediction-market-polymarket-partners-with-perplexity-to-show-news-summaries/?utm_source=press.coop


Polymarket is changing the game. They've officially become the most important measure of trends.

https://www.theblock.co/post/310590/harris-takes-lead-over-trump-on-polymarkets-572-million-prediction-market-for-next-us-president?utm_source=tldrcrypto


What are the best questions to be asked at prediction markets now?


Imagine this works on Bitcoin


SOON.


50/50?

10,000 sats on KH


SOON


depends how you bet


Soon!


Fully agree - however we need one based on true money!


V-P-N


Do you still feel like that?


Sincerely if someone has the coding ability to do a bitcoin lightning version of polymarket, I will handle literally everything else


Prediction markets are pretty fun, but I wonder if insider trading laws are going to catch up to them. It's too much money for regulators to just ignore.


predyx

🔮 Predict the future with money of the future.

BItcoin native information markets, forecasting the future, aggregated wisdom everyone needs.

🏗 ...work in progress...
dm if interested in building Bitcoin-native prediction market!


Polymarket Versus Pundits: Crypto Offers Prediction Competition

In this edition of the Bloomberg Crypto newsletter, Muyao Shen makes some predictions about the future of predictions markets. #press

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-07-25/polymarket-versus-pundits-crypto-offers-prediction-competition?utm_source=press.coop

https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/iVVxGQdiXLK8/v0/1200x-1.png


Forget the pundits and polls—internet prediction markets anticipated Biden’s withdrawal weeks ago

https://fortune.com/img-assets/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/GettyImages-2158931023-e1721916391328.jpg?w=2048

During the debate, the odds that Biden would drop out spiked from 20% to 34%. They shot up to 70% two weeks before Democrats urged him to step aside.

https://fortune.com/2024/07/25/forget-pundits-polls-internet-prediction-markets-anticipated-biden-withdrawal-weeks-ago-crypto-elections-finance-politics/


bitcoinprediction.market

Great presentation this past Friday on Bitcoin Prediction Market alongside the obvious Bitcoin Mining Centralization Pool problem

"Small pools have higher variance in block rewards" - nostr:nprofile1qqswr3azuct6plf94zeez7ya32jxw8qav806rqq6uck6ax0nh076gdcpzdmhxue69uhhyetvv9ukzcnvv5hx7un8qyf8wumn8ghj7mn0wehkztnwv9nk77tpqyt8wumn8ghj7un9d3shjtnswf5k6ctv9ehx2aq3f670w 🧙 is definetly up to something.


People don't revere them enough


🐝🔮  Bee interested in the future!

So many new apps in nostroversum every week, it's hard to catch up! 🚀

Eventually... the world will catch up. What will the future bring? One mechanism to aggregate most available and true info is... a free market of that info.

Guys, please someone build a nostr-native... prediction market! So many apps, but not such one yet!

Anyone on it?

https://m.primal.net/HQIA.png

Here is our prediction market on fun-money #Manifold, with interesting questions about the future of adoption:

❓ WILL ELON MUSK JOIN NOSTR BY 2025 ❓

https://manifold.markets/LightningBee/will-elon-musk-create-account-on-no

❓ WILL LIGHTNING NETWORK CAP BE 5k BTC THIS YEAR ❓

https://manifold.markets/LightningBee/will-lightning-networks-capacity-co

❓ WILL APPLE RELEASE BITCOIN HARDWARE WALLET BY 2030❓

https://manifold.markets/LightningBee/will-apple-release-a-bitcoin-hardwa

What other questions would you put on such market?


soon!


soon...


Open information markets are second most needed thing by humanity (after bitcoin)


We're building one!


Did you try Manifold?


And here is another flipping on #PredictionMarkets

https://m.primal.net/JrSD.png


Stats from NostrBand show slow decline recently, but it's not tragic....

Any other such stats sites?

https://m.primal.net/JTpE.png


Kamala Harris is back at 15%!

https://m.primal.net/JMsd.png


Hey #bitcoin,

Is there any other #HalvingParty announced?

🇸🇻  nostr:npub1wdj735gknh68znhtwg8njvs8vyqh48zzhquka7aks8s2u4quscsqj3hdy0, April 3-4
🇬🇷 #SantoriniHalvingParty by @`glowleaf` April 13-14
🇵🇱 #EuropeanHalvingParty by @`Bitcoin FilmFest` , April 19-21


I am in 1.2.5 and i also can't get past screen of logi,n. I dont remember pasword, it doesnt let me create another keys or log i n to another account. Basicaly unusable still