You paying higher taxes doesn't reduce the budget deficits.
Government spending is out of control. The last time U.S. had a surplus federal budget was back in 2001.
Indexed to the year 2000, Tax Receipts have grown to 218% and the Budget deficits have grown to 717%!
Usually, governments finance these chronic deficits through currency debasement and debasement erodes your savings (& wealth). Plus, through inflation your purchasing power gets diminished.
You cannot control how much the government spends, but you can control where you save your hard earned money.
Study #Bitcoin!
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Are you early to Bitcoin?
Being early or late is a function of your time-of-entry relative to the expected lifespan of an asset. Often, there is too much focus on the former and not enough on the latter.
If #Bitcoin becomes what we all expect it to be (a widely accepted superior asset to preserve our economic energy) - then the difference between buying BTC for e.g. in 2019 vs. 2023 will not be significant.
Instead of focusing on the last 15 years, there is merit in thinking of its total expected lifespan and simply DCAing into Bitcoin.
In a capitalistic world, it pays to have a bias towards the forces of Creative Destruction, where new technologies erode the older ones in pursuit of growth and progress.
If you believe in the forces of Creative Destruction, you are early. If not, sorry this ship has sailed.
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'Unbacked' fiat currencies live up the name.
As of 2023, in the U.S. only 2.53% of M2 money supply is backed by gold reserves and in Canada the percentage goes down to zero.
Being backed by Gold is better than being backed by nothing. Being backed by #Bitcoin is better than being backed by Gold.
And, establishing Bitcoin as - the legal tender and the unit-of-account is the best.
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The whole argument of "Gold is better than Bitcoin because it has physical utility" becomes flawed, when +60% of Gold's value is derived from investment & derivative products.
Will Gold bugs hung-up on physical utility, be willing to give-up 60% of the value of their holdings? Probably not. Then, mocking Bitcoin does not make any sense.
In fact, the right perspective is - unlike Gold, #Bitcoin is the only asset that offers undiluted Store-of-Value characteristics.
Bitcoin has one & only one function i.e. to protect your economic energy and its the best at what it does.
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Dumpster diving into Altcoins is injurious to wealth!
Many leading Altcoins with hot narratives could never climb back to their 2015-18 cycle tops. Most of them experienced, +60% drawdowns from cycle-top to cycle-top.
Respect your hard-earned capital. Study #Bitcoin.
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Doesn't matter how hard you work, the fiat game is rigged (against you).
The average annual salary increments across industries fall short of - EITHER beating the rate of inflation, OR the speed of U.S. dollar debasement, OR both.
Wake up to #Bitcoin!
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The Hierarchical Deterministic (HD) wallet framework helps you receive, store and send #Bitcoin.
Here is a look under the hood to understand how the HD wallet framework organizes your seedphrase, public & private keys, different accounts and multiple addresses.
This tree like structure in HD wallets, integrates multiple protocols (e.g. BIP-32, BIP-39, BIP-44, etc.) to create a robust, flexible and user-friendly system for key & address management.
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Ever wondered how different protocols come together to secure your Bitcoin?
Here is a simple framework that explains the core functions of protocols to generate keys, create mnemonic seed phrases, manage wallets, enhance security and authenticate transactions.
Study #Bitcoin.
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Going-out on the risk curve does not end well!
Altcoins have a track record of low survival rates. The further you go down the rankings, the greater the risks.
And, the recent proliferation of Altcoins make the risk of total loss near certain. Choose wisely.
Study #Bitcoin.
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Unpopular opinion: Banks will not die, they will simply transform into accelerators for Bitcoin.
Internet & E-mail, forced postal players to overhaul themselves from physical letter delivery specialists to e-commerce driven parcel & package focused companies.
Similar to the transformation of postal operators, banks will morph into agents, advocates & accelerators of 'The #Bitcoin Network'.https://m.primal.net/LOjr.png
Not being allocated to BITCOIN, is an invitation to missing-out BIG time!
The distribution of monthly returns clearly illustrates #Bitcoin's potential to outperform every other TradFi asset during a bull run.
All Tradfi assets fade before Bitcoin.
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#Bitcoin punches above its weight.
Across several popular open-source projects, Bitcoin has relatively large number of forks & stars for its small number of contributors & commits.
This shows that Bitcoin is mature and feature complete. And, it successfully offers - a secure, transparent, and immutable system for transferring value globally, while also addressing issues of trust, inflation, and financial access.
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Q: Why do investors trained to HODL S&P-500 get REKT when they HODL Altcoins?
A: HODLing in a trader's market gets you REKT.
#Bitcoin rewards hodling, Altcoins don't. Stay away from ALTs, if hodling is your chosen method of investing.
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The un-backed fiat money and its ecosystem is a very recent phenomenon in the history of money spanning multiple millennia.
Know your money to protect your economic energy.
#Bitcoin
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Transitioning to a 'quantum resistant' #Bitcoin network is not trivial.
Irrespective of your perception of the quantum threat, it is important to be aware of the trade-offs & inter-dependencies that come into play once we enter the quantum-proofing rabbit hole.
Here is a map.
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740 million people or 9.3% of the world's population have very limited financial agency, forget about financial sovereignty.
Economic crisis, high inflation, global sanctions, limited payment options, capital controls, low FOREX - leave people with no option but #Bitcoin.
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The Multiplier Effect can send #Bitcoin's market cap to much higher numbers relative to the amounts of fresh capital that enters the market.
This multiplier cuts both ways. However, in a rate cut (& potential QE) induced bull market - it won't take much to send the number up!
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Duality is at the core of Bitcoin.
The primary challenge in understanding Bitcoin is that it cannot be neatly classified into mutually exclusive categories.
Once we accept duality, we begin to understand #Bitcoin!
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Similar to the Internet, Bitcoin has been called "dead" - for over 470 times by experts & gurus of 'reputable' organization.
It has been 15 years since Bitcoin's inception and the deep rooted scepticism continues to remain.
Study #Bitcoin, and build your own perspective.
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#Bitcoin is the antidote to 'forever wars'.
The combination of weak fiat money with unlimited supply and low unit cost weapons can lead to forever wars that destroy & impoverish the world.
BTC is the money of peace & progress. It incentivizes diplomacy and collaboration.
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When it comes to network security:
1. The #Bitcoin Network's elegant solution built-on miners, nodes, the PoW consensus algorithm and global incentive-based collaboration OUTPERFORMS
2. The Banking Network built on physical vaults, surveillance systems and regulations.
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Over the next years, similar to Bhutan & El Salvador - we will see the rise of many more small #Bitcoin nations.
Essentially, those nations that need it most will adopt this new monetary technology first. And in the process leapfrog many advanced nation states. (1/2)
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In fact, history is littered with stories of underdogs leapfrogging advanced incumbents in adopting new technologies.
This has happened across Automobiles, Mobile Payments, E-commerce, Solar Energy and many other technologies.
#Bitcoin's story may not be any different. (2/2)
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Why dabble in Altcoins, when (on average) #Bitcoin can double in 1.4 years?
Bitcoin requires the shortest time duration to double the investment principal among all established asset classes.
Bitcoiners outperform the majority of the market by simply buying & hodling BTC.
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To many Bitcoiners privacy can be an afterthought. And privacy might not be important, until it suddenly is.
Here are some measures that can protect your online privacy and strengthen your #Bitcoin security.
Better safe than sorry!
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The days of mining #Bitcoin with an energy inefficient Intel Corei7 CPU have long passed.
Over the years, more & more advanced Application-Specific Integrated Circuits (ASIC) hardwares have reduced the energy consumed per Terahash by several orders of magnitude.
The orange coin is much more 'greener' than people think.
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Taking self-custody of #Bitcoin requires you to be solely responsible for the security of your private keys.
To maintain strong security you should also have solid privacy measures. Doxing yourself and your BTC stack is not a smart move.
Practice privacy to enhance security.
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Self-custodied BTC stored in open source, multi-sig & multi-vendor wallets will save you from all the counterparty risks that Tradfi is infested with.
Escape the mesh of counterparty risks by protecting your capital in self-custodied #Bitcoin.
There is no second best!
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Points to note regarding $MSTR generating yield:
1. Saylor is delivering a Bitcoin yield on US$s (and NOT a Bitcoin yield or US$ yield on Bitcoin) invested in his company.
2. He is executing this play during the monetary system's transition from the Fiat standard to the Bitcoin standard by raising cheap capital and dollar-cost-averaging into Bitcoin.
Therefore, MicroStrategy and the co.'s following its playbook do not really fit into the above framework.
Your BTC is protected by insurmountable computing power that the world has never seen before. The global Bitcoin network's hashing power is 577 times that of the Aurora Supercomputer!
#Bitcoin is decentralized incentive-based capitalism at its best.
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Fiat currency debasement cuts-through the fabric of social contract that people collectively agree to when they engage in productive economic activities.
Debasement incentivizes borrowing, dilutes trust, sows division, influences prices and disregards consequences. #Bitcoin
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With Fed rate cuts due today, no one knows for sure how the short-term BTC price movement will unfold.
BUT, we all know that eventually #Bitcoin will go on a rampage and not look back.
Here is a reminder of what the orange coin can do, when it really gets going.
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The Bitcoin network is much more cleaner than many assume.
Bitcoin uses clean(er) energy in comparison to many nation states, plus it enables more value in US$ terms per TWh power that it consumes.
The future is clean & bright for #Bitcoin.
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Lock-down your #Bitcoin in an open source, multi-sig, multi-vendor wallet.
Leaving Bitcoin on a hot wallet exposes it to several attack vectors. Here is a table that shows how vulnerable your Bitcoin is on a hot wallet.
Respect your capital and make the extra effort.
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Get your Bitcoin off exchanges. Use a #Bitcoin-only hardware wallet to self-custody BTC in cold storage.
Here is a framework to think around essential security features that your hardware wallet should offer.
Be selective, stay vigilant & prioritize security.
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For the last 15-years, the #Bitcoin network has consistently mined one block every 10-minutes.
And every year, an increasing number of people have adopted the Bitcoin Standard.
There is no stopping this monetary technology.
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Most missed-out when buying one #Bitcoin was easily achievable. Today, stacking thousands of Satoshis is within reach and yet many will miss-out on it again.
Sometimes, second chances are not appreciated enough.
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Over the years, cumulative inflation has taken more & more share from the cumulative Nominal Returns of ^SPX (S&P-500) and eroded Real Returns. (1/3) #Bitcoin
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Over the last 30-years, the most inefficient allocator of capital grew its share of the Total U.S. Debt by a staggering +18%!
Growing federal debt is the root cause of monetary debasement and consumer inflation.
Fix the money, fix the world. #Bitcoin
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All hardware wallets are not the same. Bitcoin-only hardware wallets are safer than multi-crypto wallets. Cut-out the attack surface, complexity and potential user errors by hodling in a #Bitcoin only wallet.
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The unbacked Fiat standard incentivize the use of debt.
Debt-laden capital structures drive-up market caps by squeezing costs at scale and acquiring smaller players.
Large companies can access more debt to fuel their growth. With debt large players consolidate industries, stifles innovation, buy-off competition and stall/reduce product quality.
Alternatively, on a #Bitcoin standard the minimum hurdle rates increase, the cost of capital goes-up and the unconstrained use of debt in capital structures get capped.
The Bitcoin standard incentivizes innovation over financial engineering. And innovation is what creates value.
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Since its inception, #Bitcoin's privacy, security and efficiency have only become stronger. With time, this monetary technology will become even more powerful. Nothing stops this train.
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Growing total volume of dollar bills in circulation is proof of currency debasement and the rising share of $100 bills tells the story of inflation.
On the other hand, #Bitcoin is disinflationary and debasement resistant money.
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Physical cash is slowly being made redundant.
All non-Bitcoiners should pay attention to this trend. Cash along with Gold & Bitcoin are the only major bearer assets. With gold having been securitized and access to cash becoming restricted - #Bitcoin is the only freedom money we have.
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Some thoughts on physical cash and if it is dying?
Physical cash similar to #Bitcoin is a bearer asset and its share in the U.S. base money has declined significantly since 2005. BUT, there is more nuance to this development than what meets the eye... (1/4)
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Actually, the size of circulating physical cash has grown, BUT the size of bank reserves have exploded far more since the 2008 financial crisis. This has shrunk the relative share of physical cash and changed the composition of the U.S. base money... (2/4)
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Quantitative easing and currency debasement, the same drivers that have added fuel to #Bitcoin's price & market cap, have also stifled the share of circulating physical cash and grown share of bank reserves in the U.S. base money...(3/4)
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There are serious consequences to this trend. Through further centralization of monetary power and the rise of CBDCs - financial repression, disintermediation and erosion-of-privacy may be on the menu. With physical cash's imminent demise, #Bitcoin is the only freedom money...(4/4)
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To prevent crises over the last 30-years, central banks have directed (at least) US$2.8 Trillion worth of commercial bank recapitalizations in the form of direct capital injections, loans, asset purchases & swaps and guarantees.
This is unsustainable. The world needs #Bitcoin.
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Monetary systems built on unbacked fiat lead to lose lending practices. Lose lending practices lead to bad loans. Bad loans increase chances of defaults. Defaults are reduced by forced recapitalizations. And to recapitalize, the central banks print more unbacked fiat.
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Shitcoin tokenomics are designed to take advantage of our 'unit bias' and pull-in liquidity.
1. Unit bias is the preference of having 1 whole unit of an item over a fraction of it. Most crypto projects take advantage of this inherent bias that humans have.
2. By pricing their tokens at a fraction of $1, they enable the average retail investor to stack hundreds if not thousands of 'whole token units'.
3. What most new investors are unable to distinguish is that thousands of 'whole' tokens of worthless crypto ALT projects will trend to ZERO in comparison to just a fraction of Bitcoin.
Be vigilant, be safe.
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One of the answer to 'why are my Alt-heavy Crypto bags not pumping as hard as they used to?' Marketcaps not matching expectations as limited capital chases more number of tokens.
Get out of Shitcoins!
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All global fiat currencies are melting ice cubes. The only difference is how quickly are they melting-away.
Over the last few years, the Fed has debased the U.S. dollar by 7.2% annually. This has resulted in an annual inflation of 2.7% (as per official sources!?) and this I believe is just the tip of the iceberg.
In addition to inflation, currency debasement also leads to – reduction in real wages, exchange rate depreciation, higher borrowing costs, forced redistribution of wealth via socializing of government debts, and many other symptoms of financial repression.
In comparison, through immutable code - the number of Bitcoins are capped at 21 Million. In the Bitcoin world, code is law. This is the savings technology of the 21st century. The Bitcoin network has already issued 94% of its supply. And after 2140, all 21 Million tokens would have been mined.
Bitcoin is the scarcest asset in the world. The purchasing power of savings kept in Bitcoin will not only retain its value, but also grow over time as - governments continue with budget deficits and central banks debase currencies to monetize those deficits.
In my opinion, Bitcoin is the only way out of this mess. It protects our economic energy and helps us build a brighter future.
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Barring Germany, the largest economies of the world have grown their share of Debt-to-GDP in unison.
Consistently running deficits and monetizing them by their debasing currencies.
Debt figures keep climbing higher as purchasing power of their underlying currencies erode away.
Perhaps, Bitcoin is the only way out?
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It is extremely hard to find assets that outperform Bitcoin over a long time horizon.
Yes, there can be a few Altcoins that run harder than BTC in the short term, however most of them fizzle-out in the very next cycle.
To be unbiased - at best we can expect only a handful of AI opportunities that come close to replicating Bitcoin’s outperformance over the next decade.
Therefore, to a great extent - 'there is no second best'.
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When interests don't align, actions don't either.
Your interests are different from central bank's interests. And therefore the Fiat currency serves the central banks more than it serves you.
Whereas, Bitcoin only serves your interests.
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From 2013 to 2023, the annual U.S. budget in increased by 82% and the share of interest payments in the annual budget also grew from 6.4% to to 10.5%!
U.S. government deficit spending along with debt monetization through currency debasement is hollowing-out the purchasing power of U.S. dollars and all the world currencies that are pegged to it.
How is this sustainable?
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In Zimbabwe, it took 16 years from 1985 to 2001 for inflation to jump 10X (i.e. 10% to 112%).
Next, it took 5 years from 2001 to 2006 from inflation to grow another 10X (i.e. 112% to 1,281%).
Finally, from 2006 it took 6-months for inflation to grow by another 10X to 12,800%.
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FDIC can protect bank depositors only against some independent bank crisis and not systemic failures.
YTD 2024, FDIC's Deposit Insurance Fund can currently cover for only 1.17% of all protected deposits.
Whereas, self-custodied Bitcoin will protect 100% of your deposits.
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People earn in fiat currencies that consistently get debased. Next, inflation robs them of their purchasing power as they try to save in bank deposits.
And finally, they are forced to buy higher risk assets to simply protect their economic energy.
Essentially in addition to mastering their craft and creating value for the world, people have to now become skilled investors. Why?
Why does it have to be this hard?
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In fast debasing currencies, it is much harder to create wealth by using long duration fixed interest loans.
Using leverage to buy real estate or a primary residence in a country like Venezuela is extremely challenging.
For many people, Bitcoin is the only way out.
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A total of 4 million productive lifetimes of U.S. workers worth of US$s has been printed over the last few years.
Debasement is ruthless. What people earn by working for years can be simply printed out of thin air.
On the other hand, Bitcoin protects your economic energy forever.
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Data for those who believe that bank failures are a rare event.
Currently, there are 4,587 FDIC insured commercial banks and savings institutions in the U.S. And, since 2008 - some 541 banks have failed in the U.S.
This # is far worse in developing countries.
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Today, one whole Bitcoin at $58K is 'more than' or 'almost equal to' to the full-year of total pre-tax salary earned by 70% of employed workers in the U.S.
How long before owning 1 BTC becomes unattainable?.. ⌚️tick-tock
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Every decade since 1971, the U.S. has been growing its national debt.
1. In the decade of 2001-2010, the U.S. added $7.9T in debt i.e. 1.4X the debt it accumulated over the duration of 1950-2000!!!
2. In the decade of 2011-2020, the U.S. added $14.2T i.e. another 1.7X of national debt that it accumulated in the previous decade of 2001-2010.
3. As per actuals from 2021 to 2023 and the 'official' estimates until 2029, the U.S. is on track to add another $16.42T to its national debt.
This will bring the U.S. national debt to $44.2T by end of this decade.
How is this sustainable?
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Bitcoin is special because it is the only asset that functions both - as a Safe Haven asset as well as a Hypergrowth asset.
Essentially, when someone buys BTC, they get safety & growth.
A very rare combination.
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https://m.primal.net/KQZN.png Bitcoin is testing its 21 Week EMA.
If BTC breaks below $61.5K, then we might have to wait until the September rate cut catalyst to get it moving towards the previous ATH levels. More patience.
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