PSA:
The moves during the #Bitcoin bull market are usually fast and hard. There was a stat i remember hearing that said the overwhelming majority of the gains in the run occur in only like 10 days out of the year.

In other words, you can be invested in bitcoin for 350 out of 365 days, and still miss nearly all of the gains.

Lesson: DON’T TRADE, you’ll only lose. And if you do win, you’ll think you can win again, and then you’ll lose it all.


Time in the market > timing the market


And don't sit on your backside thinking, "I'll buy in when it dips again."

Just DCA. Same day. Same amount. No matter what the price is doing. Automate it if possible.

Hasn't failed me yet.


From: nostr:npub1et992lckhexqczaspl43xw28cjpdncv8r220pwjty7utrf8lgpesyp2sxq


Yup. Wave 3 in progress, the most powerful section of the upswing.


This is why you DCA and buy every dip and FOMO every 2% pump and empty your 401k and skip breakfast and sell your chairs


Define “trade”. I bought 3 BTC at the 16-17k bottom and intend to sell them at 43-45k and re-enter at 20-25k.


I saw some stat like that from a nostr:npub17u5dneh8qjp43ecfxr6u5e9sjamsmxyuekrg2nlxrrk6nj9rsyrqywt4tp article


That’s trading and is not going to work like you think. You have an entry point on the 16-17k range and you are going to ruin it, and end up with less bitcoin than if you just bought today, because you are certain it’s going to fall again.

A *very* likely scenario:
It’ll either not fall, or it’ll fall after a much higher run, you’ll sell here around 43k, it’ll run all the way to 55k, you’ll buy back in panic, then it dumps all the way back to 38k, you sell there thinking it’ll follow your original plan, then it’s flat, and rockets back up on some random announcement. It’s back at 52k, you buy back in under panic.

You *had* a bitcoin cost basis of 16k, now you have a cost basis of more than twice that for no reason other than you decided to risk your bitcoin to get more, instead of just dumping your fiat to get more.

And if it DOES actually go back to mid 20k, you can just add to your stack at a great price and never have to stress or worry about whether it does what you think. It’s just a happy opportunity.

In the trading scenario you’re going to be staring at charts. It’s going to consume your thoughts while it goes against you. It’ll distract you from more important family and life that needs to be dealt with. And if it goes wrong you’ll feel miserable for weeks or months and always look back thinking “I had twice this amount once.”

Maybe you’re a super experienced trader and you know all the “tricks” and know how to keep your emotions in check. Good for you if so. But practically everyone that puts their hand in that fire gets burned.

Oh yeah… and you’ll have to record it all and pay chunks of it in taxes to state and federal… so take out another 10-20% on top.

——————

The only “trades” that I think should even be considered, are on a 2-4 year time frame and they should be done thoughtfully with a very small portion at the edge of your stack. Huge seasonal and debt cycle swings that can be maintained are lower risk, BUT even those force a higher cost to stay in balance during the worst part of the bear market. It often still won’t go the way you think…

TL;DR:
No, I think that’s generally a foolish decision. I think you should keep every day you bought at 16-17k, and if you get lucky and it goes back to mid 20k, you put fiat as much aside during the interim to stack there too.


Don’t get greedy, listen to nostr:npub1h8nk2346qezka5cpm8jjh3yl5j88pf4ly2ptu7s6uu55wcfqy0wq36rpev.

Keep it simple and just hold.
Many people would love to have 3btc and give their left nut for that amount.

Your call though…


Spoken like a #Bitcoin vet. Experience is the best teacher 🙏


You are conflating investing va trading


Just bad word choice. I’m specifically trying to explain why trading is a bad decision and one should invest as a foundational, life long asset.


My time horizon operates in months and years rather than days or weeks, so I don’t panic or FOMO.

But it seems your view is that in lieu of a global soft landing, the dollar will get destroyed and in extreme circumstances, BTC will be regarded as a store of value rather than a risk asset. I suppose that’s where we disagree.

Like it or not, the general public does not view bitcoin in that context yet and I also tend to agree with Brent Johnson‘s milkshake theory. So my view is that given many hodlers will need that liquidity in an economic downturn, taking profits when you have the chance would be more responsible than being forced to sell low and get washed out of the market.