There may be possible fraud and/or miscounting. But, feeling for a  local candidate can be different than for a national one. As an example- a candidate for Indiana Attorney General polled better in my county than in other heavily Republican counties. She is D. It’s not because the people here bought her message, it’s because her husband is from her and has deep family ties. 
So, it could just be that enough people simply don’t like Lake, for one reason or another.