Latest inflation figures are good news – even if they give a lot of people heartburn
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The latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) figures, released on May 15, 2024, showed a 3.4% year-over-year increase in consumer prices, down slightly from the 3.5% increase reported in March 2024. While prices are rising, they are not increasing as sharply as before, which is good news for shoppers. Energy and shelter prices increased modestly in April, while food prices remained steady compared to last year and even declined by 0.2% compared to March. New and used vehicle prices also fell in April. The "core" CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, slowed to 3.6% in April. The overall report is relatively positive, with inflation rates slightly lower than market expectations. The data suggests that economic growth is slowing in a good way, as the economy grew at a lower-than-expected rate in the first quarter of 2024 and there was a slowdown in hiring and job vacancies. The Federal Reserve's main objective is to maintain stable employment and ensure price stability. After the May report, it is unlikely that the Fed will rush to cut interest rates. The economy is stable, inflation is not surging, and consumer spending is still growing. Hopes for a "soft landing" will depend on U.S. shoppers, as consumer spending makes up roughly two-thirds of U.S. GDP. If American shoppers stop spending, inflation will slow, job vacancies will decrease, and GDP could contract. However, there has been a troubling uptick in consumer credit card delinquency rates, which could indicate shakier ground for the economy. Overall, while inflation rates are not ideal for the Fed, the economy appears to be on a stable path for now.
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