Treasuries gain before US data offers clues on growth outlook
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Treasuries gained as investors awaited data on the US labour market and remarks from a Federal Reserve official for more clarity on the path of monetary policy; Yields fell across the curve, with Fed rate-cut bets little changed on the day; Bond markets swung wildly in the past days as investors became more worried about the outlook for the US economy after a bleak jobs report last week; The market will be watching a US$25 billion auction of 30-year Treasuries at 1pm as 'the final test of investor appetite for US government bonds this week'; JPMorgan Chase & Co now sees a 35% chance that the US economy will tip into recession by the end of this year, up from 25% at the start of last month; Swaps are currently pricing 112 basis points (bps) of easing from the Fed this year, compared with about 65bps just over a week ago, with the chance of a half-point cut in September seen at 70%; For the ECB, expectations are for 72bps of additional easing this year, with a quarter-point cut fully priced in September, and for the BOE, traders expect another 48bps of cuts.



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