Oddbean new post about login | logout Population collapse… 😤 Seriously? With human population being the MOST now than ever before… you are concerned about a recent decline in birth rate ? Let’s talk in 5 more generations, after it rebounds. If it does not, then we can go full on handmaids tale. https://media.tenor.com/_WBE_zA5tzEAAAAC/slave-offred.gif
There's actually a decent argument for population collapse coming over the next century and some proposed solutions. Quite an interesting topic. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EwIeDuHwXJY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3cXRs60xiU
Population always grows and declines exponentially, so people tend to underestimate the trajectory. People also confuse longer lifespans with fertility, as a region is temporarily extremely crowded. That's what Germany has. Seems to be overrun by people, but it's only temporary, until the older generations die off and leave only the smaller ones.
> “Population always grows and declines exponentially.” But has never fallen bellow the threshold of “bouncing back” … nothing even close. Humans are THE MOST resilient of all lifeforms on this earth. I am not concerned for our future. But that’s prolly just my naive optimism kicking in. #teamhuman
Humans actually have hit the fertility "point of no return" quite often, but it was always geographically limited. This time, it's entire geographic regions. Even migration won't make a difference, as it just delays the situation one generation in the new place and speeds it up accordingly, in the old place. Doesn't mean humans will go extinct, but it does imply that we'll stop building and revert to subsistance. Humans only build when there is scarcity and progeny.
Humans actually have hit the fertility "point of no return" quite often, but it was always geographically limited. This time, it's entire geographic regions. Even migration won't make a difference, as it just delays the situation one generation in the new place and speeds it up accordingly, in the old place. Doesn't mean humans will go extinct, but it does imply that we'll stop building and revert to subsistance. Humans only build when there is scarcity and progeny.
