The US economy is flashing a recession warning that has only been wrong once in the last century, top economist says
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The US economy is showing signs of a recession, according to economist Lakshman Achuthan. The ECRI's Leading Economic Index has declined over the past year, which has historically been followed by a recession. GDP growth is slowing, with the Atlanta Fed forecasting expansion of just 2.5% in the first quarter. The US Coincident Index, which includes GDP, jobs, and retail sales data, has trended near 0% over the last two years. Hiring conditions are weakening, with the unemployment rate rising and the ECRI's Cyclical Labor Conditions index plunging nearly 50%. Non-discretionary job growth has been strong, but job growth in other sectors has been near 0%. Achuthan warns that if external support fades, it could spell trouble for the economy. Other economists, including David Rosenberg, have also warned of a coming downturn.

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https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-hard-landing-job-market-layoffs-growth-warning-2024-4