Agree. I noticed where in Dec 2022 at the bottom he had to sell 700 BTC. I assume there was effectively a margin call due to drawdown. He’s doing alluded to this in the Saif podcast too.

He’s doing it well but people don’t fully understand the inherent margin risk even when you do it well.

Seems to me that at this point $MSTR is a lot like GBTC was when that arb was a “no brainer”. All the HFs and funds that abused the arb ended up blowing it up due to their leverage. This could easily be the case, seen again, after the fact??

Based on estimates there is about $78 of bitcoin per MSTR share. The company stock (pre-#bitcoin) typically traded at $10-$16 a share (for pretty much 20 years).

Adding $78 of BTC would get you to about $94-95 bucks per share. Also, Saylor has been pretty vocal that MSTR pre-Bitcoin was dead in the water. So, it would seem investors probably shouldn’t assign much value to the company then, right?

Granted, I do think his play is to turn it into a bitcoin bank, lend off the stack and convert the software to BTC software and analytics, so there could eventually be hidden value there.